Sorrowful-Samovar 0x2843d5…93b3d2
whale 2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$130
Unrealized P&L
+$106
Hit rate
80.8%
Resolved
26
Trades
3,934
lifetime
Volume
$125.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$1.23K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 19:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
64% 71% +$200
Other
25% 33% $-39
Tech
5% — —
Sports
3% 40% $-32
Crypto
2% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 175 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +355 $271 97¢ $346 +$75 06-19 04:37
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +200 $178 99¢ $198 +$20 06-23 23:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +300 $129 41¢ $123 $-6 06-15 21:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +300 $137 34¢ $103 $-34 06-24 16:35
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +200 $82 45¢ $90 +$8 06-21 22:01
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +100 $78 83¢ $83 +$5 06-29 19:59
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +100 $69 70¢ $70 +$1 06-29 17:33
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +60 $50 91¢ $54 +$5 06-26 17:55
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes -200 $-62 26¢ $-51 +$12 06-25 20:53
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +100 $28 28¢ $28 +$0 06-16 20:16
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes -500 $-20 6¢ $-27 $-7 06-19 00:15
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -100 $-34 24¢ $-24 +$10 06-25 20:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -100 $-46 14¢ $-14 +$33 06-11 17:35
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes -50 $-20 19¢ $-10 +$10 06-26 17:10
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes -402 $-24 1¢ $-5 +$19 06-09 14:51
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes -350 $49 1¢ $-3 $-52 06-23 16:19
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Yes -104 $-3 1¢ $-1 +$2 06-14 21:37
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes -400 $-2 0¢ $-1 +$1 06-19 00:14
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Yes -174 $-0 0¢ $-0 $-0 06-29 14:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes -295 $-4 0¢ $-0 +$4 06-14 21:56