Realized P&L
-$352
Unrealized P&L
-$945
Hit rate
28.7%
Resolved
19
Trades
5,066
lifetime
Volume
$68.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$187
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 07:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Politics
67% 31% $-246
Other
29% 17% $-105
Crypto
3%
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 222 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +10,471 $442 $42 $-400 06-18 17:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +25,536 $279 $38 $-241 06-19 13:49
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? No -167 $-9 12¢ $-19 $-10 05-29 20:35
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes -76 $-21 25¢ $-19 +$2 06-06 10:09
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes +83 $18 20¢ $16 $-2 06-29 14:42
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -203 $-14 $-12 +$2 05-30 08:17
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes -288 $-10 $-11 $-0 06-06 07:55
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +4,312 $203 $11 $-192 06-26 18:00
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes +954 $50 $5 $-45 06-17 17:40
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,001 $6 $3 $-3 06-19 06:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes +2,000 $24 $2 $-22 06-13 18:53
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +1,000 $2 $2 $-0 06-27 11:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +580 $6 $1 $-5 06-21 09:05
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes -1,000 $-28 $-1 +$27 05-31 09:40
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +1,000 $20 $1 $-19 05-29 17:17
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $5 $1 $-4 06-26 18:48
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Yes -100 $-3 $-1 +$2 05-31 12:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +249 $27 $1 $-26 06-14 20:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes +600 $6 $1 $-5 06-12 21:40
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? Yes -283 $-5 $-1 +$4 06-05 07:48
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes -299 $-9 $-0 +$9 05-31 11:34
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No +200 $15 $0 $-15 06-28 05:36
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Yes -102 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-06 07:51