Realized P&L (30d)
-$740
Unrealized P&L
-$220
Hit rate
52.0%
Resolved (30d)
179
Trades (30d)
962
12,307 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$10.4K
$128.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$235
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-08 01:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 280 days
Categories
Politics
50% 28% +$1,781
Other
34% 27% -$170
Crypto
15% 27% +$230
Sports
1% 37% -$24
Tech
0% 21% -$1
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +4,000 $36 1¢ $42 +$6 08-01 14:02
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +6,020 $147 1¢ $39 -$108 10-27 09:36
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +386 $53 8¢ $31 -$22 10-14 06:26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +194 $34 12¢ $24 -$10 11-07 21:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? Yes +500 $29 4¢ $22 -$6 11-07 13:31
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +47 $15 26¢ $12 -$3 10-30 10:36
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026? No +215 $11 5¢ $11 +$0 11-07 20:26
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? No +194 $8 4¢ $8 $0 11-08 01:17
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +7,190 $14 0¢ $7 -$7 07-13 21:15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +200 $14 3¢ $5 -$9 10-27 11:09
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026? No +400 $29 1¢ $5 -$24 11-05 19:33
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,996 $12 0¢ $5 -$7 10-29 08:39
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes -76 -$21 6¢ $-5 +$16 06-06 10:09
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes +188 $6 2¢ $4 -$2 10-27 11:13
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October? No +15 $11 29¢ $4 -$7 10-28 21:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 2-8? Yes +200 $6 2¢ $4 -$2 11-04 19:02
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Yes +101 $10 2¢ $2 -$8 09-02 15:38
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +97 $5 2¢ $2 -$3 10-31 17:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? No +594 $26 0¢ $1 -$24 11-06 17:18