Realized P&L
-$436
Unrealized P&L
+$370
Hit rate
44.8%
Resolved
29
Trades
13,049
lifetime
Volume
$177.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$1.22K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 10:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Other
54% 16% $-99
Politics
43% 25% $-337
Tech
3%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 268 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No -228 $-222 100¢ $-228 $-6 06-11 18:09
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -232 $-230 97¢ $-225 +$5 06-06 14:43
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +156 $-349 99¢ $155 +$504 06-23 15:02
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +808 $35 10¢ $77 +$42 06-25 01:36
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +74 $60 92¢ $69 +$9 06-11 11:15
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No -64 $-63 100¢ $-64 $-1 05-29 18:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +100 $58 34¢ $34 $-23 06-18 16:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No +32 $26 100¢ $32 +$6 06-03 05:47
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +32 $29 100¢ $32 +$3 06-11 19:34
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No +29 $23 99¢ $29 +$6 06-19 16:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +32 $26 88¢ $28 +$2 06-07 13:26
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? No +882 $26 $26 +$0 06-23 18:07
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No -24 $-24 100¢ $-24 +$0 06-25 01:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +28 $11 66¢ $18 +$7 06-14 21:31
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,746 $91 $17 $-74 06-28 14:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +16 $13 100¢ $16 +$3 06-11 12:22
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No +16 $15 100¢ $16 +$1 06-07 01:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +16 $5 100¢ $16 +$11 05-31 15:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +16 $10 100¢ $16 +$6 06-14 21:36
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +16 $15 96¢ $15 +$1 06-07 19:23
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No +16 $5 96¢ $15 +$10 06-22 00:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +3,838 $66 $13 $-52 06-30 14:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +60 $8 18¢ $10 +$2 06-16 21:26
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No +1,024 $1 $9 +$8 06-22 17:51
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026? Yes +24 $6 32¢ $8 +$1 06-12 09:19
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes +320 $4 $7 +$4 05-31 20:20
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026? Yes +24 $4 22¢ $5 +$1 06-12 09:19
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +5 $4 90¢ $5 +$0 06-22 00:28
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +5 $4 86¢ $4 +$0 06-29 16:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +770 $111 $3 $-108 06-18 16:16