Realized P&L
+$48.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$875
Hit rate
73.1%
Resolved
1,020
Trades
20,129
lifetime
Volume
$252.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$2.38K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 18:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 178 days
Categories
Other
62% 29% +$31,530
Politics
34% 33% +$16,911
Tech
4% 33% +$388
Pop-Culture
0% 50% -$75
Crypto
0% 0% -$32
Sports
0% 30% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 219 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +21,704 $122 3¢ $651 +$530 08-07 05:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +192 $134 94¢ $181 +$47 05-12 12:01
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31? Yes +3,617 $206 4¢ $137 -$68 10-26 16:21
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +135 $102 95¢ $128 +$26 10-26 10:25
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +35,653 $633 0¢ $125 -$509 09-15 04:09
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +27,584 $84 0¢ $97 +$13 09-12 17:38
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +112 $55 86¢ $96 +$41 05-21 04:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +96 $51 90¢ $87 +$36 05-21 16:09
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +384 $72 22¢ $83 +$11 10-12 17:47
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +52,854 $99 0¢ $79 -$19 10-27 18:23
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 Yes +208 $51 32¢ $68 +$17 10-14 05:01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,216 $67 5¢ $64 -$3 09-17 21:42
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -64 -$672 99¢ $-63 +$609 06-06 14:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +60 $8 88¢ $53 +$45 06-16 21:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +52 $40 97¢ $50 +$10 06-07 13:26
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +48 $40 97¢ $47 +$7 05-17 11:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,024 $25 4¢ $40 +$16 10-08 11:31
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +240 $63 16¢ $37 -$26 09-10 18:05
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992 No +36 $21 95¢ $34 +$14 07-30 21:14
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +100 $38 32¢ $32 -$6 10-09 19:31
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? Yes +2,912 $50 1¢ $29 -$21 10-25 21:46
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +29 $14 96¢ $28 +$14 07-30 14:51
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +25 $17 95¢ $24 +$7 05-02 21:38
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +64 $20 36¢ $23 +$2 09-13 21:05
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +64 $20 34¢ $22 +$2 09-14 07:40
Will Ilhan Omar be deported in 2026? Yes +756 $31 3¢ $22 -$9 10-17 20:59
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +1,000 $60 2¢ $20 -$40 10-01 05:01
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31 OpenAI +288 $67 7¢ $20 -$46 06-23 00:23
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +19 -$154 97¢ $19 +$173 06-11 11:15
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +19 $13 90¢ $17 +$4 07-19 09:04