Clueless-Sage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$787

Unrealized P&L

-$106

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,139

lifetime

Volume

$54.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-24

last 06-30 17:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

81% 43% +$787

Other

19% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes		+2,992	$112	0¢	$6	$-106	06-28 23:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	32	$8.1K	25,867	25,867	+0	open	—	04-07 23:03
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	35	$8.1K	72,230	72,230	+0	open	—	04-21 20:11
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	91	$3.3K	205,903	205,903	+0	open	—	04-22 19:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	87	$2.9K	58,514	62,522	-4,008	open	—	05-01 03:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	32	$2.4K	58,582	18,582	+40,000	open	—	04-30 04:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	30	$2.1K	86,791	59,447	+27,345	open	—	03-31 22:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	16	$2.1K	153,455	153,455	+0	open	—	04-24 10:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$1.9K	20,049	20,049	+0	open	—	04-24 11:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.7K	2,020	2,020	+0	Yes	+$802	05-09 07:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$1.7K	21,725	21,725	+0	open	—	05-24 19:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	45	$1.3K	79,257	79,257	+0	open	—	04-12 13:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	26	$1.3K	105,612	54,398	+51,214	open	—	05-27 00:56
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	10	$1.1K	943	943	+0	open	—	06-17 10:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	17	$1.1K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	05-24 10:52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.0K	733	733	+0	open	—	05-31 02:11
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	7	$982	1,341	1,175	+166	open	—	06-14 21:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	122	$907	30,016	30,016	+0	open	—	05-14 16:36
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$848	2,870	2,870	+0	open	—	04-22 06:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	45	$772	30,052	30,052	+0	open	—	05-14 17:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	5	$719	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	04-25 05:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	29	$650	23,019	23,019	+0	open	—	04-20 03:58
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$553	601	601	+0	open	—	06-01 19:10
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	13	$486	300,603	0	+300,603	open	—	05-25 05:34
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	6	$443	32,828	32,828	+0	open	—	04-24 17:02
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	5	$419	2,992	2,992	+0	open	—	04-22 20:17
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	6	$352	855	855	+0	open	—	06-30 17:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	10	$343	9,000	9,000	+0	No	+$91	05-07 21:42
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	19	$332	6,005	6,005	+0	open	—	04-15 21:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	9	$329	19,100	12,900	+6,200	open	—	05-28 07:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	7	$301	5,699	5,699	+0	open	—	04-22 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 17:53:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	513	18¢	$94	0x96674c…
06-30 17:49:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	513	19¢	$100	0x54cf1e…
06-30 17:43:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	171	18¢	$31	0xc155a3…
06-30 17:42:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	9,828	0¢	$20	0x89c3a7…
06-30 17:42:43	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	255	1¢	$3	0x751a1c…
06-29 17:31:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	171	15¢	$25	0xb49182…
06-28 23:37:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	337	30¢	$100	0xfd2299…
06-28 23:13:52	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x26fa04…
06-28 23:12:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	193	1¢	$1	0xf83ba1…
06-27 22:22:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	9,828	1¢	$73	0x747661…
06-27 22:18:08	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	245	3¢	$7	0xf4bbd1…
06-27 22:08:19	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	494	9¢	$44	0xd70339…
06-27 15:59:25	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xa5eb7f…
06-22 20:10:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3,750	0¢	$11	0x1ac142…
06-22 19:23:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,750	0¢	$15	0x26dd16…
06-22 18:26:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,255	4¢	$50	0x9174ee…
06-22 09:26:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,681	3¢	$55	0xe26dfb…
06-22 09:26:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0x211d11…
06-22 09:26:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15,556	0¢	$55	0x31b7bb…
06-20 10:44:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15,556	1¢	$140	0xf27b9a…
06-17 12:01:53	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	525	17¢	$88	0x581f46…
06-17 10:31:49	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	222	31¢	$69	0xa2b313…
06-17 09:29:22	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x809686…
06-17 09:25:16	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	199	60¢	$119	0x2baab8…
06-17 09:24:41	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	54	63¢	$34	0xacb94b…
06-17 09:23:05	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x452f42…
06-17 09:22:35	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	271	32¢	$86	0xf996cc…
06-17 08:47:19	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	271	74¢	$200	0xcafe85…
06-17 08:42:07	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	288	3¢	$9	0x4630f1…
06-17 08:36:47	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	SELL	420	20¢	$86	0x6af839…
06-17 08:36:35	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	112	5¢	$6	0x8015ec…
06-17 08:35:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	1,000	8¢	$75	0x1ec55d…
06-17 02:49:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	949	6¢	$62	0x9651ea…
06-17 02:32:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	51	6¢	$3	0xd89632…
06-17 02:32:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x693540…
06-17 01:58:38	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xd362e0…
06-16 23:09:43	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	BUY	420	24¢	$100	0xe364b5…
06-16 23:04:14	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	251	94¢	$235	0x9d1a20…
06-16 20:13:01	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0xa56ffa…
06-16 18:23:50	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x4dbb3b…
06-16 18:23:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	400	12¢	$48	0xc2b432…
06-16 17:31:31	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xcf3515…
06-15 17:20:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	Yes	BUY	5,559	0¢	$28	0xfedbb1…
06-15 07:44:22	bitcoin above 66k on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	256	37¢	$95	0x11bfa4…
06-15 07:35:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	729	14¢	$98	0xbb6ab9…
06-14 23:41:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	613	16¢	$100	0x0576e5…
06-14 21:56:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	116	24¢	$28	0xe2f6bd…
06-14 21:44:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	110	28¢	$31	0xc95d1a…
06-14 21:42:55	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	SELL	174	16¢	$29	0x39afe5…
06-14 21:41:28	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	174	57¢	$100	0x232519…
06-14 21:02:54	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	817	12¢	$101	0xf541fc…
06-14 19:32:54	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	379	32¢	$120	0xd29662…
06-14 19:23:00	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0x28c5fd…
06-14 19:06:22	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	210	50¢	$105	0xd76372…
06-14 19:05:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	142	73¢	$104	0x0efefc…
06-14 18:52:37	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	358	73¢	$260	0xc2ebb7…
06-14 18:51:45	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	357	73¢	$261	0xc2f5df…
06-14 18:30:34	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	279	34¢	$95	0xd80359…
06-14 18:16:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0x5e090b…
06-14 10:19:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	525	0¢	$2	0xcaaf08…
06-14 10:06:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	2,455	0¢	$10	0xf5a47e…
06-14 08:03:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	700	0¢	$3	0x6f0fbc…
06-14 08:02:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	465	0¢	$2	0xb28c52…
06-14 07:58:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x0c244c…
06-14 07:51:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	465	0¢	$2	0x62acd4…
06-14 07:37:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	199	0¢	$1	0x01b263…
06-14 07:34:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	117	60¢	$70	0x1b4f3e…
06-14 07:33:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0xc789bd…
06-11 17:46:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	71	77¢	$55	0xf15d9d…
06-11 17:41:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	282	0¢	$1	0x24e8d5…
06-11 15:51:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	186	0¢	$1	0xdcd386…
06-11 15:48:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2adbd4…
06-11 15:47:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x0d1d5c…
06-11 15:36:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x035bd1…
06-11 15:26:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	417	0¢	$2	0x73b1a9…
06-11 14:04:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0x2043b3…
06-10 17:52:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$35	0x976d62…
06-10 17:30:51	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5,000	1¢	$38	0x465b0d…
06-10 13:57:48	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$45	0x34d746…
06-10 13:56:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$70	0x8834b6…
06-10 11:39:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0xb01d7d…
06-09 11:05:07	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3,427	1¢	$27	0xbd22f2…
06-06 17:12:03	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,427	1¢	$50	0xe596cd…
06-06 12:52:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	306	2¢	$6	0x9ae9ab…
06-06 06:46:03	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	SELL	187	3¢	$5	0xd36f08…
06-05 20:23:52	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x7f130b…
06-05 20:23:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	278	4¢	$10	0xf6879f…
06-05 15:43:48	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	BUY	187	3¢	$6	0x99d3d9…
06-05 08:00:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	Yes	SELL	1,500	1¢	$15	0xc08833…
06-05 07:42:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x83280f…
06-04 15:59:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$40	0xa1d81e…
06-04 10:33:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	2,704	1¢	$35	0x600d4d…
06-04 06:39:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x96cd7a…
06-04 05:57:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	238	2¢	$4	0x411fb4…
06-04 04:11:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	3,000	2¢	$54	0xcce434…
06-01 19:10:50	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	601	42¢	$253	0xdd7a8b…
06-01 19:06:00	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	601	50¢	$300	0x49ec3f…
05-31 18:28:06	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5,550	0¢	$28	0xec2219…
05-31 18:00:25	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	SELL	356	0¢	$2	0x478e98…
05-31 10:42:22	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7,875	1¢	$83	0xc7bd6c…