Clueless-Sage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$120

Hit rate

30.7%

Resolved

134

Trades

1,692

lifetime

Volume

$83.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$718

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 10-28 11:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Politics

71% 23% -$6,680

Other

23% 14% -$5,592

Crypto

6% 43% -$537

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes		+666	$539	90¢	$603	+$64	10-28 11:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes		+120	$59	96¢	$115	+$56	10-28 10:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	32	$8.1K	25,867	25,867	+0	Yes	+$6,455	04-07 23:03
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	35	$8.1K	72,230	72,230	+0	No	-$3,521	04-21 20:11
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	22	$4.7K	4,067	4,067	+0	Yes	+$1,815	08-09 22:11
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	91	$3.3K	205,903	205,903	+0	No	-$1,609	04-22 19:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	81	$3.0K	68,091	68,091	+0	No	-$1,421	09-05 21:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	87	$2.9K	58,514	62,522	-4,008	No	-$1,477	05-01 03:47
will xrp dip to 0pt8 in august 2026	54	$2.6K	29,039	29,039	+0	No	-$567	08-22 21:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	32	$2.4K	58,582	18,582	+40,000	No	-$762	04-30 04:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	21	$2.3K	14,619	385	+14,234	No	-$1,955	09-16 17:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	30	$2.1K	86,791	59,447	+27,345	No	-$1,465	03-31 22:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	16	$2.1K	153,455	153,455	+0	No	-$254	04-24 10:41
will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	15	$2.0K	1,749	1,052	+698	Yes	+$134	08-11 10:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$1.9K	20,049	20,049	+0	No	-$228	04-24 11:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.7K	2,020	2,020	+0	Yes	+$802	05-09 07:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$1.7K	21,725	21,725	+0	No	-$484	05-24 19:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	45	$1.3K	79,257	79,257	+0	No	+$36	04-12 13:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	26	$1.3K	105,612	54,398	+51,214	No	-$656	05-27 00:56
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	20	$1.1K	41,849	41,849	+0	Yes	-$822	08-15 06:49
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	9	$1.1K	1,822	1,822	+0	open	—	10-21 07:47
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	10	$1.1K	943	943	+0	No	-$99	06-17 10:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	17	$1.1K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	-$267	05-24 10:52
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?	8	$1.0K	1,419	1,175	+244	No	-$285	06-14 21:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.0K	733	733	+0	No	+$119	05-31 02:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	122	$907	30,016	30,016	+0	No	-$650	05-14 16:36
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$848	2,870	2,870	+0	No	-$795	04-22 06:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$825	803	803	+0	open	—	10-27 20:48
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	15	$781	495,293	0	+495,293	No	-$781	05-25 05:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	45	$772	30,052	30,052	+0	No	-$174	05-14 17:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	4	$766	438	438	+0	open	—	10-26 21:18
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	9	$729	782	116	+666	open	—	10-28 11:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 11:55:14	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	106	91¢	$96	0x6c6bf2…
10-28 11:54:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	201	48¢	$96	0xf960aa…
10-28 10:11:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	214	94¢	$201	0x4e89b4…
10-28 06:23:17	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x71802e…
10-28 06:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	138	73¢	$101	0xa0fe67…
10-27 20:55:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	138	74¢	$102	0x5b64cf…
10-27 20:48:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	202	50¢	$102	0x1a6a8d…
10-27 16:01:02	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xcf31b7…
10-26 22:17:54	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x06098b…
10-26 21:21:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	202	55¢	$111	0xedaad3…
10-26 21:18:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	206	95¢	$196	0x856924…
10-26 21:05:06	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	38¢	$6	0xe2b307…
10-26 12:31:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	201	49¢	$98	0xa16488…
10-26 12:31:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0x9725ea…
10-26 12:30:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	201	26¢	$52	0xc0eecd…
10-26 12:28:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	201	27¢	$54	0xc921e0…
10-26 12:26:56	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	98	82¢	$80	0x8d1107…
10-25 22:55:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x858c5b…
10-25 22:10:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	260	76¢	$198	0xa890ff…
10-25 22:03:17	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	29	73¢	$21	0x0f22bb…
10-25 18:07:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x65a6cc…
10-25 18:06:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	300	53¢	$159	0xdf76c6…
10-25 16:26:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	232	88¢	$204	0x50cb30…
10-25 12:54:50	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	66	78¢	$51	0x1dfb54…
10-25 12:53:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	300	50¢	$151	0x1e2418…
10-25 12:53:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	301	50¢	$151	0x358fb6…
10-25 12:53:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	301	50¢	$152	0x41d282…
10-25 12:52:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	206	99¢	$204	0xfb5d23…
10-24 12:23:57	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	110	75¢	$82	0x59e0d7…
10-24 11:20:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	173	48¢	$83	0x3a54c3…
10-24 09:16:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	173	48¢	$83	0xae0911…
10-24 09:15:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	84	98¢	$82	0x285a8e…
10-23 20:20:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	108	82¢	$89	0x14b56c…
10-23 20:19:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	116	76¢	$88	0xc8b588…
10-23 12:54:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	330	84¢	$277	0xea6be0…
10-23 12:53:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xaf00a8…
10-23 12:50:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	380	98¢	$371	0xf018d4…
10-22 18:31:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0xd481be…
10-22 18:30:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	74¢	$27	0x75545b…
10-22 18:30:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	229	74¢	$170	0xdfc6a3…
10-22 06:04:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	190	89¢	$169	0x122932…
10-21 20:38:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	380	89¢	$338	0x291a81…
10-21 07:47:17	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	784	22¢	$172	0x01c620…
10-21 04:02:53	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	784	22¢	$172	0xdda43c…
10-19 03:36:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	SELL	5,000	2¢	$112	0x7068b6…
10-18 20:42:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	4,050	3¢	$113	0x537d74…
10-18 20:40:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	950	3¢	$27	0xaef32e…
10-15 13:01:26	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	465	22¢	$102	0x2b625b…
10-15 09:57:40	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	858	22¢	$189	0x02a9e4…
10-13 19:25:57	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	244	20¢	$49	0xaf42c2…
09-25 17:20:08	Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?	Yes	SELL	668	0¢	$1	0x98fbea…
09-25 17:19:53	Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?	Yes	SELL	222	0¢	$1	0xf6c70d…
09-25 17:18:56	Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x7236e3…
09-25 16:32:29	Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xd0e1a3…
09-16 17:19:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,934	14¢	$551	0x94392a…
09-16 14:39:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	11¢	$33	0x33f201…
09-16 14:27:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	12¢	$180	0xbb4b2b…
09-16 13:07:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$55	0x0c7a73…
09-16 11:13:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x76687c…
09-16 05:25:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xb7eaf1…
09-15 18:24:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xf2afd8…
09-15 16:46:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x9ab86b…
09-15 16:40:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x08a0c9…
09-14 21:36:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0x4a583d…
09-14 18:34:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	700	14¢	$98	0xe30275…
09-14 08:54:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	SELL	3,539	0¢	$10	0x11ed2c…
09-14 07:55:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	135	91¢	$123	0xbfda4f…
09-13 19:53:19	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	135	77¢	$104	0x8673f5…
09-13 18:46:13	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	120	91¢	$109	0x8dbb86…
09-13 18:46:04	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	120	92¢	$110	0xb33d8d…
09-13 14:17:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x8eb8a0…
09-13 14:15:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x848568…
09-13 14:13:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x1ba0ca…
09-13 14:11:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xe0fa13…
09-13 14:10:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x43cfa4…
09-13 14:09:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x29d896…
09-13 14:06:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x885634…
09-13 14:05:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xe91f45…
09-13 14:03:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xfb0250…
09-13 14:01:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x79580a…
09-13 13:27:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa61287…
09-13 13:24:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xf83ff7…
09-13 13:23:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xcb57a4…
09-13 13:21:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x1616b3…
09-13 13:20:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x70dd4f…
09-13 13:18:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xcf7bb8…
09-13 13:16:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xc39367…
09-13 13:13:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd1eded…
09-13 13:11:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x074511…
09-13 13:09:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x42322f…
09-13 13:08:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x559ce4…
09-13 13:05:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x27fdcd…
09-13 13:03:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8d721c…
09-13 13:01:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xe5956f…
09-13 12:59:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x6673d8…
09-13 12:28:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0xeb50c2…
09-13 12:11:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x02f626…
09-13 12:10:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x546f15…
09-13 12:08:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3d4361…
09-13 12:06:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x1228e5…