Clueless-Sage — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$3.85K

Unrealized P&L

-$694

Hit rate

48.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

354

1,766 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$17.5K

$87.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-03-24

last 11-07 07:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Politics

71% 24% -$7,072

Other

23% 14% -$5,592

Crypto

6% 43% -$537

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes		+348	$714	6¢	$19	-$694	11-06 22:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	32	$8.1K	25,867	25,867	+0	Yes	+$6,455	04-07 23:03
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	35	$8.1K	72,230	72,230	+0	No	-$3,521	04-21 20:11
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	22	$4.7K	4,067	4,067	+0	Yes	+$1,815	08-09 22:11
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	91	$3.3K	205,903	205,903	+0	No	-$1,609	04-22 19:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	81	$3.0K	68,091	68,091	+0	No	-$1,421	09-05 21:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	87	$2.9K	58,514	62,522	-4,008	No	-$1,477	05-01 03:47
will xrp dip to 0pt8 in august 2026	54	$2.6K	29,039	29,039	+0	No	-$567	08-22 21:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	32	$2.4K	58,582	18,582	+40,000	No	-$762	04-30 04:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	21	$2.3K	14,619	385	+14,234	No	-$1,955	09-16 17:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	30	$2.1K	86,791	59,447	+27,345	No	-$1,465	03-31 22:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	16	$2.1K	153,455	153,455	+0	No	-$254	04-24 10:41
will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	15	$2.0K	1,749	1,052	+698	Yes	+$134	08-11 10:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$1.9K	20,049	20,049	+0	No	-$228	04-24 11:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.7K	2,020	2,020	+0	Yes	+$802	05-09 07:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$1.7K	21,725	21,725	+0	No	-$484	05-24 19:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	11	$1.5K	804	804	+0	Yes	+$69	11-04 21:02
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	15	$1.4K	838	838	+0	No	+$76	11-02 22:30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	45	$1.3K	79,257	79,257	+0	No	+$36	04-12 13:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	26	$1.3K	105,612	54,398	+51,214	No	-$656	05-27 00:56
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	20	$1.1K	41,849	41,849	+0	Yes	-$822	08-15 06:49
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	9	$1.1K	1,822	1,822	+0	open	—	10-21 07:47
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	10	$1.1K	943	943	+0	No	-$99	06-17 10:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	17	$1.1K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	-$267	05-24 10:52
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?	8	$1.0K	1,419	1,175	+244	No	-$285	06-14 21:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.0K	733	733	+0	No	+$119	05-31 02:11
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	36	$923	2,292	1,944	+348	open	—	11-06 22:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	122	$907	30,016	30,016	+0	No	-$650	05-14 16:36
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$848	2,870	2,870	+0	No	-$795	04-22 06:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$825	803	803	+0	open	—	10-27 20:48
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	15	$781	495,293	0	+495,293	No	-$781	05-25 05:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 07:47:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	700	0¢	$1	0x0c1226…
11-06 23:10:52	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xc14739…
11-06 22:49:21	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	62¢	$167	0xa88f16…
11-06 22:35:06	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	39¢	$58	0x6de5ca…
11-06 22:34:31	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,394	4¢	$61	0x8d9753…
11-06 21:26:34	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x7397d5…
11-06 21:25:54	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	8¢	$44	0x95fb5d…
11-06 20:39:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xdd5410…
11-06 19:33:31	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	58¢	$174	0xa2c67f…
11-06 16:49:13	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	60¢	$102	0xe47620…
11-05 13:59:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x86e972…
11-04 23:55:15	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	174	30¢	$51	0xa0ca4d…
11-04 21:57:19	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xa81c3e…
11-04 21:52:58	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x20616e…
11-04 21:37:31	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf69cd0…
11-04 21:02:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	202	100¢	$202	0x80771a…
11-04 19:36:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x219492…
11-03 12:17:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	123	82¢	$100	0x734795…
11-03 12:16:51	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	300	22¢	$66	0xd6de3f…
11-03 12:16:43	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x424342…
11-03 09:05:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	39	81¢	$32	0x5e23df…
11-02 22:34:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x563b48…
11-02 22:30:51	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	152	86¢	$131	0xfde728…
11-02 15:09:54	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	36¢	$50	0xf87648…
11-02 14:12:12	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc26ad4…
11-02 13:15:37	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	34¢	$50	0x443d49…
11-02 12:29:33	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	146	95¢	$139	0xd3011d…
11-02 10:44:49	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0x9a187b…
11-02 10:44:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0x920037…
11-02 10:44:30	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0x19c17a…
11-02 08:32:36	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,042	38¢	$400	0x569f64…
11-02 08:27:25	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x5129fc…
11-02 08:25:09	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xce3f8e…
11-02 06:03:15	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0xcc4b12…
11-02 05:44:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc356ea…
11-02 05:44:34	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa028f7…
11-02 05:44:00	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x1c7fc2…
11-02 05:28:10	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	34¢	$50	0xbb48f3…
11-02 05:27:34	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x30307b…
11-02 05:27:27	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x4447b4…
11-02 05:27:13	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xe412ce…
11-02 05:27:13	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x560709…
11-02 05:27:03	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x30b1e8…
11-02 05:26:58	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	28¢	$7	0xfe2c2c…
11-02 05:26:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0xe9da83…
11-02 05:26:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xc418ee…
11-02 05:26:43	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$5	0x1c88ae…
11-02 05:26:42	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x7e2e32…
11-02 05:26:42	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x563e4d…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xef37e4…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xbd97d6…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0x8c73e0…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x83d3d9…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x4b6673…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x3d7a4a…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x2a52e7…
11-02 05:26:40	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	32¢	$100	0x17a4df…
11-02 05:26:15	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	310	94¢	$292	0xd71418…
11-02 05:16:13	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$5	0x131493…
11-02 05:15:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	272	99¢	$270	0xb9bbdb…
11-01 21:47:43	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xfeefd6…
10-30 23:28:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	65	84¢	$55	0x1c9f15…
10-30 12:05:01	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0x3359a7…
10-30 10:05:00	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	3,000	2¢	$45	0x4dc491…
10-30 09:38:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	65	85¢	$55	0x45c431…
10-30 09:37:55	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	300	32¢	$96	0x838787…
10-30 09:36:40	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9365a0…
10-29 14:24:50	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1,920	4¢	$67	0x489ab5…
10-29 14:24:38	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	177	4¢	$6	0x950378…
10-29 14:24:11	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	400	4¢	$14	0x74ccd3…
10-29 14:23:53	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	423	4¢	$15	0x37e731…
10-29 14:23:37	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$3	0x9be49d…
10-28 22:27:44	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	113	91¢	$103	0x794b80…
10-28 19:15:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	152	95¢	$144	0xb228b4…
10-28 11:55:14	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	106	91¢	$96	0x6c6bf2…
10-28 11:54:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	201	48¢	$96	0xf960aa…
10-28 10:11:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	214	94¢	$201	0x4e89b4…
10-28 06:23:17	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x71802e…
10-28 06:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	138	73¢	$101	0xa0fe67…
10-27 20:55:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	138	74¢	$102	0x5b64cf…
10-27 20:48:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	202	50¢	$102	0x1a6a8d…
10-27 16:01:02	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xcf31b7…
10-26 22:17:54	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x06098b…
10-26 21:21:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	202	55¢	$111	0xedaad3…
10-26 21:18:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	206	95¢	$196	0x856924…
10-26 21:05:06	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	38¢	$6	0xe2b307…
10-26 12:31:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	201	49¢	$98	0xa16488…
10-26 12:31:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0x9725ea…
10-26 12:30:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	201	26¢	$52	0xc0eecd…
10-26 12:28:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	201	27¢	$54	0xc921e0…
10-26 12:26:56	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	98	82¢	$80	0x8d1107…
10-25 22:55:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x858c5b…
10-25 22:10:24	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	260	76¢	$198	0xa890ff…
10-25 22:03:17	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	29	73¢	$21	0x0f22bb…
10-25 18:07:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x65a6cc…
10-25 18:06:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	300	53¢	$159	0xdf76c6…
10-25 16:26:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	232	88¢	$204	0x50cb30…
10-25 12:54:50	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	66	78¢	$51	0x1dfb54…
10-25 12:53:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	300	50¢	$151	0x1e2418…
10-25 12:53:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	301	50¢	$151	0x358fb6…