Worldly-Crime — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$298

Unrealized P&L

+$913

Hit rate

68.6%

Resolved

2,174

Trades

7,644

lifetime

Volume

$564.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$995

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 11-07 12:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 205 days

Categories

Politics

47% 63% +$3,349

Other

33% 62% +$662

Crypto

15% 48% -$3,030

Sports

4% 81% -$398

Tech

0% 20% -$285

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+752	-$316	94¢	$710	+$1,026	08-13 23:47
Will Iran target Bahrain by November 30, 2026?	No	+233	$78	68¢	$157	+$80	11-06 02:05
Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026?	No	+153	$79	56¢	$86	+$7	11-03 06:23
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	+752	$242	6¢	$41	-$201	08-13 16:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	49	$16.1K	9,751	9,751	+0	Yes	+$942	07-25 20:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	47	$15.3K	10,076	10,076	+0	Yes	+$419	06-21 10:13
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	62	$14.0K	10,960	10,960	+0	Yes	+$564	07-02 14:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	9	$13.6K	11,263	3,609	+7,654	No	+$571	08-15 14:13
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	5	$8.3K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$1,647	08-20 09:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	12	$8.3K	6,007	6,007	+0	No	+$433	04-16 04:06
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	29	$8.1K	5,020	5,020	+0	Yes	+$870	08-02 19:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	39	$7.5K	5,771	5,771	+0	No	+$553	06-01 17:01
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	24	$7.0K	4,576	4,576	+0	Yes	+$375	04-16 16:18
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	82	$6.6K	6,507	6,507	+0	Yes	-$503	07-07 19:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	61	$6.4K	7,400	5,400	+2,000	Yes	+$52	09-14 05:52
iran closes its airspace by june 8	20	$6.2K	6,838	6,838	+0	Yes	-$1,385	06-07 23:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	59	$6.1K	6,500	6,500	+0	No	-$154	07-10 07:17
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	57	$5.7K	6,133	4,133	+2,000	Yes	-$738	07-19 23:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	5	$5.6K	3,009	3,009	+0	No	+$210	06-14 20:02
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	44	$5.5K	4,104	4,104	+0	No	-$174	06-30 10:21
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	30	$5.5K	4,346	3,946	+400	Yes	-$666	07-14 01:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	12	$5.3K	2,800	2,800	+0	Yes	+$232	07-23 00:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	16	$5.0K	3,916	3,916	+0	No	+$193	04-18 12:36
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	17	$5.0K	3,448	3,448	+0	England	+$1,231	07-18 23:00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	54	$4.5K	3,674	3,674	+0	Yes	-$104	09-10 06:16
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	30	$4.4K	2,706	2,705	+1	No	+$295	06-19 00:44
will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	11	$4.2K	5,749	1,251	+4,498	Yes	+$45	08-19 01:24
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?	19	$4.2K	3,265	3,265	+0	No	-$1,688	09-08 01:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	11	$4.0K	2,076	2,076	+0	No	+$121	06-15 02:14
Will there be fewer than 4 North Korea tests in August 2026?	29	$4.0K	4,860	936	+3,924	Yes	+$619	08-30 04:12
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	23	$3.7K	4,906	3,403	+1,503	open	—	08-13 23:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	20	$3.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$19	07-22 14:37
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?	14	$3.5K	2,334	1,667	+667	No	+$102	09-04 02:16
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	3	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$30	08-04 10:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 12:20:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	671	86¢	$575	0xcc21d8…
11-07 12:17:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	60	86¢	$51	0x8a0f76…
11-07 12:17:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	769	86¢	$658	0xa11f69…
11-07 11:30:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	181	85¢	$155	0xad8f4f…
11-07 11:28:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0x60d628…
11-07 06:39:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	849	87¢	$739	0x908934…
11-07 04:26:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	834	83¢	$693	0xa4d842…
11-06 02:05:30	Will Iran target Bahrain by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	209	70¢	$146	0x219223…
11-05 06:26:10	Will Iran target Bahrain by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	442	51¢	$224	0xbf0ae3…
11-04 07:34:06	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	279	100¢	$278	0x4ce135…
11-04 07:33:24	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,351	100¢	$1,349	0x46ef53…
11-04 06:43:55	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0xac1c32…
11-04 01:33:40	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	324	97¢	$313	0x1ede0f…
11-03 06:28:52	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	320	98¢	$314	0xafa236…
11-03 06:23:49	Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	55¢	$24	0x35dddf…
11-03 06:23:39	Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	197	52¢	$103	0x72814b…
11-02 15:20:46	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	SELL	145	98¢	$142	0x672a48…
11-01 19:33:03	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xc7c8db…
11-01 11:48:31	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9f83b6…
11-01 05:18:13	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe48c91…
10-31 03:46:45	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	92¢	$58	0x33e0d1…
10-31 03:46:40	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	44	94¢	$42	0x2b012d…
10-25 22:47:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	461	62¢	$286	0xb0d180…
10-25 22:45:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	435	67¢	$290	0xc73071…
10-25 22:45:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x19c5c2…
10-25 22:45:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$8	0xb2df21…
10-25 22:05:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa653f8…
10-25 22:04:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x93dad4…
10-25 10:01:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x315207…
10-25 09:59:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	79¢	$789	0x29cce3…
10-25 09:17:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	79¢	$396	0x17f7a5…
10-25 08:56:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	79¢	$396	0x97fdbb…
10-25 07:13:24	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	54¢	$54	0x6a4925…
10-22 08:22:53	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	412	62¢	$256	0x0d8cfa…
10-22 08:22:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0x4a0dc9…
10-22 07:16:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x8b66ed…
10-21 07:51:18	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	412	59¢	$243	0x349599…
10-21 04:18:38	Lightning vs. Golden Knights	Lightning	BUY	263	88¢	$232	0xbd1750…
10-21 04:15:17	Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	267	88¢	$233	0x3df7f4…
10-18 12:54:36	Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	86¢	$107	0xf250d0…
10-18 12:54:11	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x9048f0…
10-18 12:53:57	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x766140…
10-18 12:53:45	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	85	94¢	$80	0xc0c75a…
10-18 12:51:54	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	No	SELL	263	22¢	$58	0x809e44…
10-17 02:57:17	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	SELL	300	60¢	$180	0xc31c05…
10-16 12:45:04	will tsla reach 367 50 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	SELL	450	1¢	$4	0xb51b0c…
10-16 09:42:12	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	BUY	300	63¢	$189	0x0cfe6a…
10-16 07:55:33	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	270	3¢	$8	0x2bf0a9…
10-16 07:55:19	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xbde9f2…
10-16 07:39:10	will tsla reach 367 50 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x32cbff…
10-16 07:11:51	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	BUY	177	56¢	$99	0x93e520…
10-16 04:23:04	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x1f7037…
10-16 03:17:13	will tsla reach 367 50 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0xfc6ecb…
10-16 02:36:51	will iran target an arab country by october 22 2026 20261015	No	BUY	263	59¢	$156	0x906cdc…
10-15 01:29:11	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xee8617…
10-15 01:29:01	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	SELL	458	48¢	$219	0x84f990…
10-15 01:25:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	700	23¢	$161	0x16da01…
10-14 12:53:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	698	43¢	$300	0xc4a0f9…
10-14 12:53:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7c2d14…
10-14 11:02:47	will nvda dip to 224 by october 12 2026 from october 13	No	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xfa5aa6…
10-14 10:56:49	will nvda dip to 224 by october 12 2026 from october 13	No	BUY	470	51¢	$242	0xa4c114…
10-14 08:44:04	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 15	No	SELL	234	67¢	$157	0x308e89…
10-14 08:43:43	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 15	No	SELL	266	80¢	$214	0x87431d…
10-14 06:55:43	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	700	44¢	$308	0x552e01…
10-14 06:54:07	will nvda dip to 224 by october 12 2026 from october 13	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x5b23a6…
10-14 02:45:13	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 15	No	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0x9100d6…
10-12 06:30:51	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	31¢	$16	0xddf24a…
10-12 06:30:33	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	36¢	$40	0x9e0d1a…
10-12 06:29:02	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	44¢	$71	0xf44a7c…
10-12 06:27:54	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	458	64¢	$293	0xb07f58…
10-12 06:14:21	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0xa0f309…
10-12 02:14:38	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xb73fc8…
10-12 01:08:33	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	224	82¢	$184	0x84bb2b…
10-12 01:07:59	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x83fefd…
10-11 12:32:51	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xcb0aa1…
10-11 07:19:05	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$25	0x89313f…
10-11 07:18:36	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	224	85¢	$190	0xc9d193…
10-11 07:09:11	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	45¢	$900	0xc40a68…
10-11 06:41:23	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	No	SELL	358	74¢	$265	0x07b302…
10-10 14:56:21	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?	Yes	BUY	68	60¢	$41	0xf62d16…
10-10 14:04:09	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x237ba3…
10-10 10:22:16	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	280	68¢	$190	0x2cd910…
10-10 09:48:01	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x544203…
10-09 09:36:01	Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x43f528…
10-09 09:09:33	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x5a6303…
10-09 08:15:54	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xf8b6e0…
10-09 04:43:13	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	BUY	500	51¢	$255	0x6c5e07…
10-09 04:40:34	Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	391	58¢	$228	0x3b053a…
10-09 04:23:25	Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3d3dee…
10-09 04:22:28	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x368d7d…
10-09 04:18:30	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	71¢	$179	0xca7a13…
10-05 03:25:38	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xd2d24b…
10-05 03:25:17	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	329	1¢	$3	0x6ca6e5…
10-05 03:25:16	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0x2b9995…
10-05 03:25:08	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	471	1¢	$5	0x5cefae…
10-05 03:09:04	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	176	6¢	$11	0x9230f2…
10-04 16:08:59	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	129	69¢	$89	0x7bfe18…
10-04 16:08:02	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	371	67¢	$250	0x168aa6…
10-04 15:53:47	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	293	41¢	$121	0xc2b16f…
10-03 18:33:45	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x3eba7a…