Wilted-Administration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

48.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$495

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-26

last 07-09 10:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

41% — —

Crypto

29% 33% $-7

Politics

21% 0% $-21

Sports

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No		+14	$10	71¢	$10	$-0	07-08 13:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	03-29 23:21
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$31	36	0	+36	Yes	+$5	05-05 05:01
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	1	$30	36	0	+36	open	—	02-07 18:39
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$29	31	0	+31	open	—	04-29 20:36
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	1	$22	0	23	-23	open	—	06-07 18:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$21	23	0	+23	Yes	$-21	04-12 20:28
will russia enter sofiivka by january 31	1	$21	24	0	+24	open	—	01-26 22:22
will russia enter zaliznychne by january 31	1	$21	24	0	+24	open	—	01-26 22:21
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	03-29 23:21
Mezo FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-29 23:25
will luka modri score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	2	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	07-02 08:51
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	1	$16	18	0	+18	open	—	02-27 20:58
will darwin nunez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	2	$15	13	13	+0	open	—	06-25 08:09
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026	2	$14	40	40	+0	open	—	07-05 22:41
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	1	$11	0	12	-12	open	—	06-25 08:09
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	07-09 10:44
fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	06-26 07:00
fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	06-25 08:10
will russia capture rodynske by march 31	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	03-17 22:59
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	1	$10	16	0	+16	No	$-10	05-06 12:55
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	07-06 13:26
will martin degaard score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	06-07 19:05
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	07-08 13:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	03-13 06:12
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$9	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 21:19
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	1	$9	27	0	+27	open	—	07-04 11:48
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$9	11	11	+0	open	—	05-13 05:54
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$6	0	6	-6	open	—	03-01 12:17
fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 spread home 1pt5	1	$5	31	0	+31	open	—	06-26 07:01
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5	22	0	+22	open	—	05-11 19:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 10:44:05	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x033844…
07-08 13:16:10	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xbbfbb0…
07-06 13:26:11	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x5656d4…
07-05 22:41:10	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xd0f918…
07-04 11:48:55	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	BUY	27	33¢	$9	0xb329f9…
07-02 08:53:01	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x2091c4…
07-02 08:51:44	will luka modri score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	14	88¢	$12	0x8eb6c7…
06-26 07:01:23	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xef527d…
06-26 07:00:38	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xc48735…
06-25 08:10:32	fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 2pt5	Curaçao	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x3cbb1e…
06-25 08:09:50	will darwin nunez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x909546…
06-25 08:09:41	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x9871f7…
06-07 19:05:10	will martin degaard score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x239f6c…
06-07 18:57:42	will luka modri score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x8f235e…
06-07 18:57:13	will darwin nunez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x9e2592…
06-07 18:51:10	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0xef651a…
05-16 21:19:55	Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x16dde9…
05-13 05:54:31	Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0xacfc1d…
05-11 19:42:46	Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xa097e4…
05-11 19:41:57	Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xc7f28e…
05-06 12:55:16	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc0a3bb…
05-06 12:54:50	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xfd53e3…
05-05 05:01:08	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x06553f…
04-29 20:36:38	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x41224c…
04-29 20:35:54	Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xb7d910…
04-12 20:28:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x7d7025…
04-12 20:26:57	Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x15cb92…
03-29 23:25:42	Mezo FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x156f9f…
03-29 23:23:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 24 30	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x0d27d2…
03-29 23:21:44	EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x66ea97…
03-29 23:21:04	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x48eb2f…
03-17 22:59:17	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xe32b7d…
03-13 06:12:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xf37aa2…
03-13 06:11:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x234545…
03-01 12:17:15	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x6b054b…
02-27 20:58:13	will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x0e8a9d…
02-07 18:39:43	will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x333f67…
01-26 22:22:07	will russia enter sofiivka by january 31	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x754497…
01-26 22:21:59	will russia enter zaliznychne by january 31	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x9f3ce7…