Upbeat-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-13

last 07-04 17:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

67% 53% +$6

Tech

19% 100% +$49

Other

14% 25% -$76

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	9	$437	476	249	+227	No	+$49	06-25 10:15
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	3	$244	151	151	+0	Yes	+$54	06-18 20:02
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	2	$231	130	130	+0	Yes	+$27	06-15 15:37
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	3	$195	110	110	+0	Yes	+$25	06-16 10:40
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$160	92	92	+0	Yes	+$20	06-11 03:45
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	4	$154	141	141	+0	No	+$19	06-05 00:51
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	3	$137	90	90	+0	Yes	+$17	06-18 19:16
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	3	$125	156	156	+0	No	-$93	06-09 10:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	3	$120	136	136	+0	No	-$20	06-18 19:24
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	2	$110	79	79	+0	No	-$1	07-04 17:17
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$108	170	170	+0	Yes	-$96	07-04 17:17
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	3	$104	144	124	+20	Yes	-$49	07-02 13:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$75	113	0	+113	Yes	+$38	06-14 10:42
starmer out by june 22 2026	3	$61	160	0	+160	Yes	-$61	06-21 17:54
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	1	$53	136	0	+136	Yes	+$82	05-13 16:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$15	1,179	0	+1,179	Yes	-$15	06-18 00:27
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	2	$12	94	94	+0	No	+$2	06-19 10:55
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	2	$10	143	0	+143	Yes	-$10	06-10 23:51
will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	2	$8	95	0	+95	Yes	-$8	06-13 17:46
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$1	20	0	+20	Yes	-$1	06-07 21:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 17:17:34	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	170	3¢	$6	0x53c05a…
07-04 17:17:29	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	79	69¢	$54	0xfd380e…
07-02 13:09:40	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xbb45c1…
07-02 13:08:11	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	SELL	124	14¢	$17	0xb640f6…
07-02 10:41:14	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	79	70¢	$55	0x1fd3d7…
07-02 10:39:41	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	124	57¢	$70	0xb0efec…
06-25 10:15:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	43	38¢	$17	0x4db9a9…
06-25 09:50:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	37	34¢	$13	0x3078de…
06-25 09:44:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x7c54a7…
06-25 09:36:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	166	66¢	$109	0x15ab35…
06-25 09:25:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x9afc6b…
06-25 09:25:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x3d85fb…
06-25 09:12:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x1fcfc4…
06-25 09:12:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	205	67¢	$136	0x9ed22e…
06-24 18:35:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	205	65¢	$133	0xf8315e…
06-22 09:48:28	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	170	60¢	$102	0x9c1960…
06-21 17:54:01	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	53	40¢	$21	0xd7c233…
06-21 17:49:32	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x94c9ef…
06-21 14:10:20	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xe89359…
06-19 10:55:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	94	8¢	$7	0xc5fc03…
06-18 20:02:35	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	151	99¢	$149	0xb1ff34…
06-18 19:32:49	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	62	56¢	$35	0x1bffdc…
06-18 19:24:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	136	37¢	$50	0x814b35…
06-18 19:16:55	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	87	85¢	$74	0x08e810…
06-18 19:13:34	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xc5bf67…
06-18 18:23:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x1d9e66…
06-18 18:22:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xdeeb1e…
06-18 18:04:46	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0xc67918…
06-18 00:27:17	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1e4843…
06-17 13:46:59	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	BUY	94	5¢	$5	0x74d067…
06-16 17:27:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	90	66¢	$60	0x8ac306…
06-16 16:45:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x9b4b73…
06-16 10:40:13	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	Yes	SELL	109	100¢	$109	0x6301ca…
06-15 15:37:58	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0x053148…
06-15 14:52:07	US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	79¢	$102	0x58eaf9…
06-14 22:09:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	54	24¢	$13	0x3f663e…
06-14 10:42:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xbee243…
06-14 10:41:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0x688fa0…
06-13 17:46:46	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x16b21b…
06-13 17:02:45	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xdb3967…
06-11 03:45:00	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	92	98¢	$90	0xae81af…
06-10 23:51:49	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x4c7d82…
06-10 18:08:07	will trump restart project freedom by june 30	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xb3b24c…
06-09 10:03:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	156	10¢	$16	0xd1ad30…
06-07 21:39:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe8435d…
06-07 21:39:27	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x046e96…
06-07 19:24:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x1b5fea…
06-07 19:23:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3d89fc…
06-05 13:08:19	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	Yes	BUY	110	77¢	$85	0x688aa3…
06-05 00:51:15	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	99	60¢	$59	0x4437c6…
06-05 00:46:01	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	42	64¢	$27	0x476d8f…
06-03 18:35:06	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	No	BUY	68	43¢	$29	0x6a4ac3…
06-03 17:43:39	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	No	BUY	72	53¢	$38	0x88b81c…
06-02 10:32:04	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	92	76¢	$70	0x18ef6d…
05-13 16:54:55	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	136	39¢	$53	0x8a7d45…