Severe-Venison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

89.6%

Resolved

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$236

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-12

last 06-01 21:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

58% 100% +$1

Other

31% 0% $-2

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	Yes		-2	$-1	28¢	$-1	+$0	06-01 21:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$39	340	0	+340	open	—	04-20 18:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	5	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	04-24 00:05
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	5	$15	15	15	+0	open	—	05-22 22:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	4	$13	10	10	+0	No	+$1	05-03 21:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	4	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	04-25 21:08
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	05-04 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$6	9	2	+7	open	—	04-25 21:04
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$5	5,240	0	+5,240	open	—	04-24 23:08
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	04-30 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-25 20:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-04 17:42
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	3	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	05-23 23:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	04-13 18:23
will emma stone win best actress at the 98th academy awards	3	$4	366	250	+116	open	—	03-13 15:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	04-24 00:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	04-24 00:22
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	04-25 21:53
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	2	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	05-07 02:46
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	05-13 17:56
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 17:50
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	05-16 22:06
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-13 17:49
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	05-24 22:48
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-13 17:51
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "AI" or "Intelligence" this week?	1	$2	10	0	+10	Yes	$-2	05-04 00:52
Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	1	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	04-29 23:33
Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-25 21:48
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-25 21:54
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-06 16:04
btc updown 5m 1773278400	2	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	03-12 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 21:22:18	Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x02ac04…
05-24 22:48:10	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x619e93…
05-23 23:01:09	Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	NRG	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x74ba55…
05-23 20:52:26	Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	NRG	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x9cb93c…
05-23 15:47:37	Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	NRG	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x1eabf0…
05-22 22:32:31	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0x754d89…
05-22 21:18:21	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x52ac15…
05-22 21:17:37	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x69e577…
05-22 21:17:08	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x7ddc7e…
05-19 23:58:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xca5501…
05-19 23:55:04	Will Trump say "Semper" during Coast Guard event?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x1774b4…
05-19 23:54:59	Will Trump say "Drone" during Coast Guard event?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x88fdf0…
05-19 23:54:47	Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x588cca…
05-18 21:07:44	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x08fb42…
05-18 21:07:38	Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs	NRG	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x843d36…
05-16 22:06:28	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x6dad00…
05-13 17:56:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x468262…
05-13 17:51:53	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x0ab050…
05-13 17:51:40	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x110fc0…
05-13 17:50:04	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x6d72be…
05-13 17:49:10	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb622e9…
05-07 02:46:22	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf9b607…
05-04 17:42:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x22c3f3…
05-04 00:55:22	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7b85ad…
05-04 00:54:20	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xa1f033…
05-04 00:52:02	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "AI" or "Intelligence" this week?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xaba42f…
05-04 00:45:10	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$4	0xb95a41…
05-03 21:49:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xc3ae5d…
05-03 21:47:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x3d0a60…
05-03 21:43:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xda918b…
05-01 19:14:46	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x68fd56…
05-01 19:14:40	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xbd6a66…
05-01 19:14:00	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd9b955…
04-30 22:45:38	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x8e5f83…
04-30 22:44:44	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x254aee…
04-30 22:31:00	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc2ddf8…
04-30 16:52:22	Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9121fc…
04-30 16:49:24	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x36ed3e…
04-29 23:35:22	Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xe65708…
04-29 23:35:20	Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6ffb81…
04-29 23:34:14	Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaacc27…
04-29 23:33:42	Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbf0be6…
04-29 23:33:38	Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x8d4829…
04-29 17:25:38	Will Trump say "First Term" during astronaut greeting?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x984944…
04-26 16:56:30	Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd4b388…
04-26 16:55:56	Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb8e8a4…
04-26 16:55:42	Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf8902d…
04-26 16:51:58	Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x457bb0…
04-26 15:25:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x57a3d8…
04-26 15:23:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd40c34…
04-26 15:23:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x500a17…
04-25 22:08:02	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xefca6e…
04-25 22:06:30	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x465be4…
04-25 22:06:24	Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x8c5cee…
04-25 21:54:40	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7af129…
04-25 21:53:52	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x8d343d…
04-25 21:48:12	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xf236ca…
04-25 21:47:52	Will Trump say "Waste" or "Fraud" 2+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb71557…
04-25 21:47:46	Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x653624…
04-25 21:46:58	Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb7bdb3…
04-25 21:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9a2fb2…
04-25 21:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x531702…
04-25 21:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x0ea23a…
04-25 21:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x286d18…
04-25 21:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x300081…
04-25 21:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x5eadee…
04-25 21:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x3f29d4…
04-25 21:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x02bb90…
04-25 20:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x0159b0…
04-25 20:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5e5de6…
04-25 20:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5bfb94…
04-25 20:54:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xc1b540…
04-25 20:42:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0xb1b1ed…
04-24 23:08:12	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xea600e…
04-24 04:31:58	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,240	0¢	$1	0x7e28ce…
04-24 04:31:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xbc2294…
04-24 00:28:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x0745f8…
04-24 00:23:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x4aaafd…
04-24 00:22:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xb0441c…
04-24 00:22:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x62cfe6…
04-24 00:05:44	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3b47b3…
04-24 00:05:30	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$18	0xd5bca0…
04-20 18:02:42	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	226	8¢	$18	0x66972f…
04-18 22:10:12	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x379e15…
04-18 22:04:26	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xc959ce…
04-13 18:24:11	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xcaddba…
04-13 18:23:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xc992db…
04-13 17:58:27	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x7275d7…
04-09 20:11:41	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xccef17…
04-09 20:10:29	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x479a15…
04-06 16:04:33	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc6607b…
04-02 22:09:09	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0beb0b…
04-01 17:09:13	will trump say obama during address to the nation 925 698	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0df527…
04-01 17:06:01	will trump post barack hussein obama on truth social this week	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1adbdd…
03-13 15:16:21	will emma stone win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	116	1¢	$1	0x64324b…
03-13 15:16:05	will emma stone win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x8787b1…
03-13 04:16:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc2f983…
03-13 01:25:35	will vance say terrorism or terrorist during his rocky mount visit	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xdac6ff…
03-12 13:40:33	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x0fd8c9…
03-12 13:33:37	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x447b13…