Regular-Imbalance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

97.7%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$727

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-19 23:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

43% 0% $-1

Politics

27% — —

Other

20% — —

Sports

9% 100% +$3

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+10	$3	29¢	$3	$-0	06-01 17:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes		-103	$-0	0¢	$-0	+$0	06-18 21:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	02-05 23:46
bitcoin above 76k on april 17	6	$53	100	19	+81	open	—	04-17 14:24
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$43	69	69	+0	No	+$3	04-15 22:15
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$26	37	37	+0	open	—	01-25 19:50
btc updown 5m 1776028800	3	$23	21	21	+1	open	—	04-12 21:23
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	2	$20	41	0	+41	open	—	06-16 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	4	$20	19	19	+0	open	—	05-01 21:24
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$19	28	28	+0	open	—	03-01 17:08
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	01-04 21:00
btc updown 15m 1770385500	3	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	02-06 13:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$17	29	29	+0	open	—	01-25 19:50
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$16	24	24	+0	open	—	04-14 20:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-07 07:03
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$13	18	18	+0	open	—	01-25 21:11
btc updown 5m 1776470700	2	$10	9	9	+0	open	—	04-18 00:06
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 20:52
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	03-22 22:38
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-12 21:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	04-12 21:20
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	04-18 11:05
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 520 539	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	01-16 07:41
fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	06-17 02:00
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	04-21 21:20
epl mac bri 2026 01 07 mac	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	01-07 16:25
nfl la car 2026 01 10	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	01-09 22:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	05-01 21:38
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	01-25 21:26
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	01-06 14:47
venezuela election scheduled by january 31 2026	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	01-04 23:33
fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	3	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	06-20 23:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 23:04:49	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Ecuador	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xfafab2…
06-19 23:42:43	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfda42e…
06-19 22:10:32	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x953d93…
06-19 22:04:47	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xcd6436…
06-19 12:50:02	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Ecuador	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x0f0c76…
06-19 12:43:02	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	Ecuador	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x6bc018…
06-18 21:20:46	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 2pt5	Saudi Arabia	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x997960…
06-18 21:05:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0x7a95ea…
06-18 14:21:01	fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc37e86…
06-17 02:00:43	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xd52df1…
06-16 20:46:56	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x7efd12…
06-16 19:29:55	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xaae761…
06-01 17:18:26	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xb0ee8e…
05-10 20:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x359fba…
05-03 21:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x89ce5c…
05-03 21:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1a601b…
05-03 21:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xa2a6d4…
05-03 21:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x245d65…
05-03 21:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3734fc…
05-03 20:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	81¢	$3	0x6e9f43…
05-03 20:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x473cbf…
05-01 21:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6bbddf…
05-01 21:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x85b1c5…
05-01 21:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xab7f4c…
05-01 21:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x51c9b6…
05-01 21:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcb750d…
05-01 21:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xcd17b0…
05-01 21:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd662cb…
05-01 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc09b61…
05-01 21:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0xab3e55…
05-01 21:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc704fe…
05-01 21:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0xa9c3c2…
05-01 21:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc76f3f…
05-01 21:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x59ab1f…
05-01 21:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x4cfe06…
05-01 21:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0xc0258f…
05-01 21:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7eb590…
05-01 21:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	53¢	$1	0x57bc95…
05-01 21:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x789ed4…
05-01 19:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x5a2ea6…
05-01 19:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7d888a…
05-01 19:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x103e2a…
05-01 19:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe5dc13…
05-01 16:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x27bf27…
05-01 16:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9daf41…
05-01 16:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8bf9c6…
05-01 16:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x399fef…
05-01 16:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x878d39…
05-01 16:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0xa7939d…
05-01 16:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd989fa…
05-01 16:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x843fd7…
05-01 16:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3dd42f…
05-01 16:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf5dfe6…
05-01 16:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x71bca6…
05-01 16:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb82732…
04-21 21:20:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x976430…
04-21 20:52:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x211bd3…
04-21 06:57:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x9f759b…
04-20 16:29:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	Yes	SELL	17	3¢	$1	0x3ddb46…
04-20 09:47:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc60dba…
04-18 11:05:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x12d5d5…
04-18 00:38:42	btc updown 5m 1776472500	Up	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x0cf06d…
04-18 00:36:44	btc updown 5m 1776472500	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x2c2a3d…
04-18 00:35:32	btc updown 5m 1776472500	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x257120…
04-18 00:23:28	btc updown 5m 1776471600	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x249b0b…
04-18 00:14:28	btc updown 5m 1776471000	Down	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xe3ac8e…
04-18 00:13:36	btc updown 5m 1776471000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb278d2…
04-18 00:06:14	btc updown 5m 1776470700	Up	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0x46e4c9…
04-18 00:05:36	btc updown 5m 1776470700	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x33a336…
04-17 23:51:18	btc updown 5m 1776469800	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xcba62d…
04-17 23:50:44	btc updown 5m 1776469800	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6c1dd9…
04-17 23:44:24	btc updown 5m 1776469200	Up	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x8be343…
04-17 23:43:12	btc updown 5m 1776469200	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$0	0x7ec2b0…
04-17 23:43:12	btc updown 5m 1776469200	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x4ce7bd…
04-17 23:38:58	btc updown 5m 1776468900	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xfc577f…
04-17 14:24:00	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x2d2c6e…
04-17 14:24:00	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	No	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x0369c8…
04-17 13:42:24	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0x0a1c50…
04-17 13:32:38	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xca19b4…
04-17 13:28:40	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x3d6529…
04-17 13:27:48	bitcoin above 76k on april 17	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xbb2f2f…
04-15 22:15:58	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	34	34¢	$12	0xa75448…
04-15 21:07:12	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	34	33¢	$11	0x57a554…
04-15 13:12:22	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x25f13c…
04-15 13:12:14	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x3306ff…
04-14 20:02:02	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	27¢	$6	0x4fe5e3…
04-14 14:13:37	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x0df5f5…
04-12 21:50:45	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xb8f5f0…
04-12 21:23:11	btc updown 5m 1776028800	Down	SELL	21	63¢	$13	0x2b8e70…
04-12 21:22:01	btc updown 5m 1776028800	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x4725e7…
04-12 21:20:57	btc updown 5m 1776028800	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x1bf4a1…
04-12 21:20:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x872e34…
04-12 20:59:45	btc updown 5m 1776027300	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe8e779…
04-10 22:33:33	btc updown 5m 1775860200	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xda867e…
04-10 22:32:39	btc updown 5m 1775860200	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xa89251…
04-07 07:03:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xda990e…
03-22 22:38:55	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf323d3…
03-22 22:20:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa9bade…
03-22 18:32:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x3c7221…
03-22 18:15:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd7e8f5…