Modest-Link — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$136

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-21 11:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

64% 100% +$137

Other

35% 0% $-1

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$294	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 11:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$278	8,749	479	+8,270	Yes	+$137	05-09 13:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$218	200	200	+0	open	—	06-21 11:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$207	134	134	+0	open	—	05-28 15:12
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	4	$152	150	150	+0	open	—	06-08 11:48
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	4	$132	142	78	+64	open	—	04-21 22:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$77	0	152	-152	open	—	06-14 21:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$62	5,470	10	+5,461	open	—	04-08 02:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$39	106	106	+0	open	—	04-15 14:17
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	8	$33	5,180	180	+5,000	open	—	05-24 11:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	3	$23	328	100	+228	open	—	05-22 20:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$20	60	0	+60	open	—	05-23 12:13
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$10	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	06-16 22:57
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	2	$5	200	0	+200	open	—	05-23 05:30
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$4	200	200	+0	open	—	05-11 23:47
is earth flat 20260608195956112	1	$3	100	0	+100	open	—	06-12 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$2	6	6	+0	open	—	05-15 09:53
btc updown 5m 1780666200	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	06-05 13:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 09:31
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	1	$1	333	0	+333	Yes	$-1	05-02 01:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-22 12:46
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	1	$1	7	0	+7	open	—	05-15 10:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-15 09:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 11:47:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0xef29d1…
06-19 22:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0xa8e15c…
06-19 22:59:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xd42fcf…
06-19 22:59:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xa11b0f…
06-19 22:58:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	95	54¢	$51	0xf0dc5a…
06-19 22:58:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x895c3e…
06-16 22:57:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x11c6f9…
06-14 21:27:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x61a42c…
06-14 16:43:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	132	55¢	$73	0x2cee61…
06-12 05:58:58	is earth flat 20260608195956112	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1e2a8f…
06-08 11:48:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	70	51¢	$36	0xc9b06a…
06-08 11:48:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x02a48a…
06-08 11:12:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x6b409f…
06-07 19:37:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	75	68¢	$51	0xcc028a…
06-05 13:32:18	btc updown 5m 1780666200	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x191ca8…
06-03 18:23:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x9d4891…
06-03 01:13:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	150	80¢	$120	0xae4763…
05-29 00:04:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xb949ef…
05-28 15:12:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0xbf37d2…
05-28 15:04:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	122	80¢	$98	0x0dc7e5…
05-28 03:48:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x6eae91…
05-24 11:07:59	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xa88a66…
05-24 05:25:10	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	SELL	160	0¢	$0	0xa1e317…
05-23 22:59:01	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x7d71b5…
05-23 22:37:16	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf34135…
05-23 22:35:22	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0xf8ecdd…
05-23 22:35:19	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xddcbc4…
05-23 22:33:18	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x6df912…
05-23 22:32:22	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x3d16f7…
05-23 12:13:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x1e194a…
05-23 05:30:45	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x36efac…
05-22 20:48:52	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x0db8c5…
05-22 20:28:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xbc8de5…
05-22 14:14:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	5¢	$11	0xf731da…
05-22 13:20:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	9¢	$10	0xf054ca…
05-22 12:46:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4e88bc…
05-15 10:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x6f8223…
05-15 09:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0x59b151…
05-15 09:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4a09a8…
05-15 09:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc1d63e…
05-15 09:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xc99367…
05-15 09:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x112035…
05-11 23:47:53	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x5b7568…
05-11 19:33:01	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xd0d81f…
05-09 13:12:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,470	0¢	$5	0xf46616…
05-09 10:28:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,800	0¢	$3	0xa1cf37…
05-08 18:46:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0x38410a…
05-08 18:41:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	470	43¢	$204	0xbfb21f…
05-08 18:20:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	25¢	$42	0x2ff21e…
05-04 18:51:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0x8cf627…
05-04 18:46:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0xa6eb63…
05-02 01:24:16	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xdc933d…
04-21 22:23:06	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	64	73¢	$47	0x2b5a5d…
04-21 21:12:24	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	78	60¢	$47	0x45f28b…
04-21 21:03:02	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	53	52¢	$27	0x696045…
04-21 20:55:30	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xa8bff6…
04-15 14:17:26	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	106	13¢	$14	0xdc665d…
04-14 15:36:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	106	24¢	$25	0x9ca103…
04-08 02:31:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	4,980	0¢	$20	0x2833ce…
04-07 23:17:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	454	4¢	$20	0x0ceb8d…
04-07 22:50:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x5b54c4…
04-07 22:49:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x8b1400…
04-07 22:46:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x7d8fe1…