Watchful-Circumstance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

324

lifetime

Volume

$9.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-27 21:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Sports

47% 0% $-0

Other

28% 0% $-0

Politics

16% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$298	155	155	+0	open	—	02-25 19:50
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$290	150	150	+0	No	$-0	03-26 05:38
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$290	154	154	+0	open	—	03-03 18:55
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	6	$247	127	127	+0	open	—	03-04 04:25
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$246	129	129	+0	open	—	03-22 06:49
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	8	$239	126	126	+0	open	—	03-02 10:40
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	11	$225	119	119	+0	open	—	03-30 12:11
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	15	$220	115	115	+0	open	—	02-01 19:10
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	7	$218	115	115	+0	open	—	03-09 15:06
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	14	$213	111	111	+0	open	—	03-06 22:31
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	6	$212	113	113	+0	open	—	03-27 20:14
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	5	$204	104	104	+0	open	—	02-15 23:27
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	6	$197	102	102	+0	open	—	02-20 07:45
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$181	93	93	+0	open	—	03-02 10:31
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$181	97	97	+0	open	—	03-29 15:35
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	8	$180	93	93	+0	open	—	03-21 05:32
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$180	92	92	+0	open	—	02-17 11:39
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$174	90	90	+0	open	—	03-09 22:43
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$174	90	90	+0	open	—	03-05 06:12
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	6	$172	92	92	+0	No	$-0	02-20 07:44
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$161	83	83	+0	open	—	02-20 07:31
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	4	$158	81	81	+0	open	—	04-07 11:45
will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$157	81	81	+0	open	—	03-22 18:58
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	4	$156	80	80	+0	open	—	03-19 20:43
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$155	80	80	+0	open	—	03-05 17:09
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$150	79	79	+0	Yes	$-0	04-01 12:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	4	$137	71	71	+0	open	—	04-06 13:08
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	5	$128	66	66	+0	open	—	03-27 12:45
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	6	$128	67	67	+0	open	—	02-15 23:33
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$111	57	57	+0	open	—	02-25 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 21:19:06	Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xb75a8a…
07-27 16:10:28	Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xfe9427…
06-18 13:46:55	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xd7ff8b…
06-18 09:42:32	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x2db1dc…
04-08 00:05:25	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x458ff1…
04-07 18:02:49	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0xd7d0f2…
04-07 11:45:15	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xbf801d…
04-07 07:38:47	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xf8b785…
04-06 13:08:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x9b84b4…
04-06 05:06:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x090331…
04-06 05:01:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x10c709…
04-06 01:00:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xdb1517…
04-04 21:25:27	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xfa33af…
04-04 13:19:41	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x876cab…
04-03 06:58:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x74f14d…
04-02 23:56:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x407ec3…
04-01 12:52:55	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x709d25…
04-01 08:46:55	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xb1ebb9…
04-01 08:38:57	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x0d6195…
04-01 01:34:05	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xa77084…
04-01 01:16:01	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x689c26…
03-31 19:14:31	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0xa1be32…
03-31 14:58:43	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x71758f…
03-31 06:57:43	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x64eeda…
03-31 06:51:03	Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$29	0x3a50d1…
03-31 01:50:17	Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$29	0x848baa…
03-31 01:43:33	will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	35	98¢	$35	0xf882db…
03-30 17:40:23	will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x232e37…
03-30 12:11:56	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	42	94¢	$39	0xf85e18…
03-30 07:07:20	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x7dfba1…
03-29 15:35:36	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	39	96¢	$37	0x132d61…
03-29 07:34:40	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0xe66489…
03-29 07:28:56	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x30a44b…
03-29 03:19:46	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x37a72e…
03-28 08:10:21	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0xc2ae03…
03-28 01:53:41	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$31	0xb08557…
03-27 20:14:39	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0xf87429…
03-27 13:08:37	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x5b7671…
03-27 12:45:09	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x1d4d39…
03-27 04:41:33	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x3be2c1…
03-27 04:18:19	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0x4eb780…
03-27 03:08:27	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x2575ce…
03-27 00:17:09	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x897d42…
03-26 10:45:17	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x55422b…
03-26 05:42:27	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x015c32…
03-26 05:38:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x920f93…
03-26 00:29:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xbfcd2b…
03-25 11:58:31	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xee4c68…
03-25 04:43:01	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x39767b…
03-25 04:35:51	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xf323c0…
03-24 23:23:13	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xa36947…
03-24 10:59:27	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x8886c0…
03-24 02:59:17	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x81ac16…
03-23 10:30:47	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0x4b1d04…
03-23 02:28:47	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0x4e14d6…
03-22 18:58:07	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x6f71c5…
03-22 12:55:23	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x8dcae1…
03-22 12:19:05	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x491eac…
03-22 07:04:25	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	38	98¢	$38	0x44fdc8…
03-22 06:49:13	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x9be463…
03-21 23:39:43	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x8fe469…
03-21 10:58:05	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xfecdfa…
03-21 05:49:01	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x85720d…
03-21 05:32:23	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xc36330…
03-21 01:26:57	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x6ac858…
03-21 01:13:03	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x531e99…
03-20 18:07:29	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x72660f…
03-19 20:43:23	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	SELL	43	97¢	$41	0xeabe17…
03-19 12:43:11	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	BUY	43	97¢	$41	0xabe5e3…
03-18 18:45:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0xb1e293…
03-18 10:41:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0xca62cb…
03-17 05:32:51	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x23834b…
03-16 21:32:03	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0xb0b76d…
03-16 21:19:25	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	SELL	36	98¢	$36	0x9f3302…
03-16 13:13:27	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	BUY	36	98¢	$36	0xd277b8…
03-16 13:06:37	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	45	97¢	$43	0x72ca5f…
03-16 08:02:25	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xc2a3a3…
03-16 03:07:45	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	SELL	37	98¢	$37	0xd1bc62…
03-15 23:06:23	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	BUY	37	98¢	$37	0x3dcf15…
03-13 05:10:07	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	47	95¢	$45	0x54e005…
03-12 21:03:37	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x95d556…
03-12 20:50:37	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x49869b…
03-12 12:47:11	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x7f0134…
03-12 06:41:31	2026 the players championship winner collin morikawa win	No	SELL	44	94¢	$42	0x37aa31…
03-11 22:34:51	2026 the players championship winner collin morikawa win	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x05364b…
03-11 16:45:53	will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0xa34d12…
03-11 08:44:23	will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x5da8ab…
03-11 08:40:19	will hideki matsuyama win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x6e5a0c…
03-11 03:06:55	will hideki matsuyama win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	38	98¢	$38	0x1f8605…
03-10 18:03:57	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0xf126d8…
03-10 13:39:55	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x59c048…
03-09 22:43:27	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x1a2b12…
03-09 15:56:39	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$41	0xdd6a45…
03-09 15:06:11	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	46	94¢	$43	0x33bda6…
03-09 10:12:17	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	45	95¢	$42	0x503751…
03-09 08:02:27	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd620bf…
03-09 01:17:15	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	49	94¢	$45	0x4888fa…
03-08 16:50:09	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	49	94¢	$45	0x5bdf96…
03-08 09:06:43	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0x039b04…
03-08 03:43:49	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x67fb4f…