Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

130

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$207

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-21

last 10-30 13:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

85% 55% -$4

Politics

12% 73% +$10

Tech

2% 0% -$2

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No		+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	10-30 13:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$10	15	+15	No	+$5	07-22 00:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$4	7	+7	Yes	-$1	09-08 00:09
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-01 13:18
will ewy reach 184 by september 14 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-17 18:53
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-14 12:35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	+$7	09-20 01:01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-15 20:29
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-04 00:21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-08 08:24
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-02 17:38
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-17 01:06
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-09 06:01
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	09-23 10:36
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-19 14:55
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-18 05:37
spy closes above 760 on september 17 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-17 10:46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-15 12:05
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-09 05:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	07-24 00:56
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-06 12:47
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-19 06:13
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-12 11:34
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-12 03:34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-09 06:44
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-06 04:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-20 12:02
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-16 12:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	08-04 20:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-02 08:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-06 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 13:06:55	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5793fa…
10-29 02:38:28	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x95080f…
10-24 13:36:41	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfe99b4…
10-24 05:28:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd6aee6…
10-23 07:54:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd5c00f…
10-21 11:39:50	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x679ba8…
10-20 15:39:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xea1067…
10-20 07:39:05	Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x805101…
10-19 23:38:41	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x236c5b…
10-17 20:02:24	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xacf4b8…
10-17 12:01:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5910b4…
10-17 03:47:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf067b6…
10-16 18:03:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x397eca…
10-16 08:25:40	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x8a36de…
10-16 00:25:36	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x210c20…
10-15 15:06:14	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x878d5c…
10-15 06:59:52	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xed883d…
10-14 22:58:00	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf9400f…
10-14 02:55:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xfea396…
10-13 18:50:51	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x10fd0c…
10-13 10:50:43	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb88c2e…
10-13 02:50:33	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5b41d8…
10-12 18:50:26	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6b09fc…
10-10 21:14:42	Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.95B?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xad3903…
10-10 12:57:54	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xab08e7…
10-10 04:35:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6861a7…
10-10 02:04:54	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb2df2a…
10-09 17:44:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6daf1c…
10-09 09:43:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x440a18…
10-09 00:24:41	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3a1e45…
10-08 15:41:06	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2f61b1…
10-08 06:24:34	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xf2ca9c…
10-07 22:23:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa2a53b…
10-07 14:21:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x153f1c…
10-07 05:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb6399c…
10-06 21:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x69aea0…
10-06 13:57:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc8aa09…
10-06 05:54:01	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x671fa5…
10-06 05:53:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 6?	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x951beb…
10-05 21:53:52	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc55f56…
10-05 13:53:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4a70bb…
10-05 00:42:17	will coin reach 190 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x5bb945…
10-04 13:58:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8b2bbf…
10-04 04:42:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd94c13…
10-03 20:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x70e35e…
10-03 06:18:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x7e1ef7…
10-02 21:10:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5033e1…
10-02 12:15:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x628335…
10-02 03:04:38	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9c1039…
10-01 18:39:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7d5eaf…
10-01 10:36:51	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7b694e…
10-01 02:28:00	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x8072e0…
09-30 18:22:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x22425b…
09-30 10:14:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x724510…
09-30 02:14:18	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6e86e1…
09-29 05:03:44	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7ae50e…
09-29 05:01:38	will rklb dip to 66 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x33bc2f…
09-28 20:24:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6ba95b…
09-28 12:24:42	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xafea3d…
09-28 04:24:33	will rklb reach 80 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xa65905…
09-27 18:56:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6e0bc6…
09-27 10:17:33	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x25e2e3…
09-27 10:06:48	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x994ded…
09-27 02:05:06	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2fcbcc…
09-26 15:22:23	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7173c4…
09-26 07:16:27	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xebe64e…
09-25 18:05:26	wti closes above 93 on september 25 2026	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xbc74d0…
09-25 10:05:05	spy up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd8f458…
09-25 01:24:50	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb3f3d1…
09-24 15:24:39	Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x53c4bb…
09-24 07:08:39	will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xf56022…
09-23 10:36:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x367033…
09-23 02:16:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x089ad5…
09-22 18:11:55	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 22?	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xd1b771…
09-22 10:06:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x085bfb…
09-20 12:02:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x4a7159…
09-20 01:01:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x0fa323…
09-19 14:55:41	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x0e1061…
09-19 06:13:52	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa41d90…
09-18 05:37:30	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4fcb5f…
09-17 18:53:43	will ewy reach 184 by september 14 2026	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x2a426a…
09-17 10:46:30	spy closes above 760 on september 17 2026	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x577b1a…
09-17 01:06:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x718348…
09-16 05:06:16	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xfaeac6…
09-15 20:29:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xce948b…
09-15 12:05:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xf469c8…
09-15 03:50:40	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x0ec71b…
09-11 15:06:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xfa8958…
09-09 06:01:58	Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x76bf72…
09-09 05:58:25	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x02b7c2…
09-08 08:24:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x085187…
09-08 00:09:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x8e3d25…
09-07 14:34:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x67d544…
09-07 13:48:54	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xb53faf…
09-04 00:21:04	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xf65ea7…
09-03 14:33:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of August 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xe1a74b…
09-03 03:21:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x82a0b4…
09-02 18:04:52	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xb1e397…
09-02 17:38:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x87bd10…
09-02 08:18:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd78aeb…