Actual-Hurdle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

17.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$136

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-17

last 05-29 00:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

50% — —

Other

40% 25% $-1

Crypto

11% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes		+2	$1	60¢	$1	+$0	05-29 00:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$19	112	112	+0	open	—	03-29 01:57
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$16	44	44	+0	open	—	03-29 22:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-08 22:06
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	1	$10	68	0	+68	open	—	02-27 10:29
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$7	108	0	+108	open	—	01-23 21:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	03-30 15:58
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	03-04 18:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	1	$5	18	0	+18	open	—	03-29 01:56
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-09 11:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	2	$4	62	62	+0	open	—	03-29 22:41
btc updown 5m 1775598000	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-07 21:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-07 22:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	03-29 02:04
btc updown 5m 1774749300	1	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	03-29 01:55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	02-28 02:26
btc updown 5m 1775524200	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-07 01:12
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	2	$2	5	5	+0	open	—	04-07 22:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-07 22:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	05-29 00:00
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	04-08 22:11
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	$-2	04-30 08:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-07 22:08
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	$-0	04-08 22:07
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$1	6	6	+0	open	—	05-08 23:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	2	$1	9	9	+0	open	—	04-20 20:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$1	167	0	+167	open	—	04-24 13:25
btc updown 5m 1775599200	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	04-07 22:00
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$1	3	0	+3	Yes	+$2	04-30 08:30
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$1	9	0	+9	Yes	$-1	04-30 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-24 22:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 00:02:05	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x585655…
05-29 00:00:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x481cbc…
05-08 23:45:33	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x4ebd29…
05-03 00:21:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x1450fa…
04-30 08:30:44	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x10f231…
04-30 08:30:30	Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xe7e476…
04-30 08:30:26	Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc80ae7…
04-24 22:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8efaa8…
04-24 13:27:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6f635f…
04-24 13:25:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x3438e0…
04-20 20:47:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x48f1fd…
04-13 23:55:53	btc updown 5m 1776124500	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf42878…
04-09 11:30:03	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x66b688…
04-08 22:11:57	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xed6332…
04-08 22:07:53	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x28c559…
04-08 22:06:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x167324…
04-08 22:05:29	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x11e956…
04-07 22:40:59	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x008de6…
04-07 22:40:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x6257b3…
04-07 22:11:01	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2ad2d0…
04-07 22:08:27	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xee9c4f…
04-07 22:08:05	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xcdc676…
04-07 22:07:41	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xc8c12d…
04-07 22:07:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x55f485…
04-07 22:06:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x66ede7…
04-07 22:06:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xee5fe9…
04-07 22:00:25	btc updown 5m 1775599200	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xef8ce9…
04-07 21:44:53	btc updown 5m 1775598000	Up	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xfe0c8e…
04-07 21:40:45	btc updown 5m 1775598000	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb2381d…
04-07 01:15:39	btc updown 5m 1775524500	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x1dc888…
04-07 01:15:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0433b9…
04-07 01:12:45	btc updown 5m 1775524200	Up	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xc04ade…
04-07 01:11:43	btc updown 5m 1775524200	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4b169f…
03-30 16:00:31	btc updown 5m 1774886400	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa775db…
03-30 15:58:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x135050…
03-29 22:41:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x99eae0…
03-29 22:39:50	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	44	13¢	$6	0x0078cf…
03-29 02:04:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	Yes	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0xc56dbf…
03-29 02:04:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfe2014…
03-29 01:57:50	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	112	0¢	$1	0xfe1f42…
03-29 01:56:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x1aa069…
03-29 01:55:34	btc updown 5m 1774749300	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xceadfb…
03-29 01:53:44	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x382731…
03-25 23:01:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x699626…
03-04 18:23:55	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xc6beda…
03-03 21:24:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x847e69…
03-03 21:23:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	112	16¢	$18	0x3f3dff…
02-28 02:26:21	Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xe419e2…
02-27 10:29:05	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x4e3846…
01-23 21:15:16	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xcb2571…
01-17 10:00:34	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x1cc6a3…
01-17 03:47:32	will google have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x66f954…