Unusual-Difference — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

78.9%

Resolved

Trades

198

lifetime

Volume

$7.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$36

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-10 08:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$28

Other

31% — —

Sports

3% 50% $-35

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No		+40	$32	90¢	$36	+$4	06-10 08:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	2	$513	268	268	+0	open	—	01-23 06:08
will india join the board of peace	2	$377	273	273	+0	open	—	01-28 06:53
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$319	170	170	+0	open	—	02-23 13:07
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	03-27 14:52
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	11	$285	160	160	+0	open	—	03-13 19:35
iran closes its airspace by june 15	5	$281	210	110	+100	open	—	06-04 11:35
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$276	150	150	+0	open	—	03-31 05:10
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$237	140	140	+0	open	—	04-07 10:34
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	6	$219	130	130	+0	open	—	04-09 01:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$197	120	120	+0	open	—	04-20 05:56
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$195	109	109	+0	open	—	01-27 06:18
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$191	125	125	+0	open	—	01-29 16:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	3	$189	120	120	+0	open	—	04-23 10:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	05-29 09:55
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	4	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	03-30 04:51
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$183	100	100	+0	open	—	02-10 05:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$181	120	120	+0	open	—	04-07 14:53
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	1	$180	205	0	+205	open	—	01-28 06:54
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$173	100	100	+0	open	—	02-25 13:45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	10	$172	115	115	+0	open	—	04-04 22:36
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	3	$154	100	100	+0	open	—	03-22 16:35
will trump visit china by march 31	5	$146	100	100	+0	open	—	03-13 13:30
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	2	$139	127	127	+0	open	—	01-29 08:50
military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	3	$139	90	90	+0	open	—	03-31 05:14
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$126	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	03-02 20:41
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$120	76	76	+0	open	—	01-22 05:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$118	70	70	+0	open	—	05-28 06:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$114	80	80	+0	open	—	03-08 18:12
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$114	100	100	+0	open	—	03-19 13:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$109	125	0	+125	open	—	05-06 09:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 08:13:19	Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x6a33dc…
06-04 11:35:37	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	75	90¢	$68	0xf35f75…
06-04 11:14:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	25	90¢	$23	0x628270…
06-02 06:49:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	55	90¢	$49	0x63e7b3…
06-02 06:48:04	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	55	90¢	$49	0x7487fc…
05-31 15:31:17	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	110	84¢	$92	0xf7a359…
05-31 13:03:30	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev	Andrey Rublev	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x4f0ea1…
05-29 09:55:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xc5f7d1…
05-28 06:34:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	88¢	$62	0x90038b…
05-25 08:35:57	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x2e9f12…
05-24 10:48:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	35	89¢	$31	0x99cf2e…
05-19 16:33:07	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	35	77¢	$27	0x9ef575…
05-19 14:58:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x9a7ef3…
05-19 14:56:11	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xdb3117…
05-19 14:51:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x2a2880…
05-17 19:32:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	81¢	$57	0x2ddf2f…
05-09 20:11:49	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	48	81¢	$39	0x60d356…
05-09 20:10:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0x274a3e…
05-06 09:03:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	125	87¢	$109	0x91f95b…
04-25 10:47:04	Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x69e321…
04-25 10:47:04	Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x3efe69…
04-25 10:45:20	Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	28	92¢	$26	0x90f6a5…
04-25 05:35:22	will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0x5ff020…
04-25 05:35:22	will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x23d454…
04-25 05:27:34	will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xa1931b…
04-25 05:22:30	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0xaabd2b…
04-25 04:55:00	Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x405d49…
04-23 10:22:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	86	89¢	$77	0xeb3c11…
04-23 09:52:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xa4e061…
04-23 09:52:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	34	89¢	$30	0x409556…
04-20 05:56:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	120	82¢	$98	0xeeadf3…
04-19 03:59:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	120	82¢	$98	0x3194df…
04-15 07:03:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	120	69¢	$83	0x642d92…
04-09 01:57:01	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	SELL	130	84¢	$110	0x858ef8…
04-07 14:53:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	120	69¢	$83	0xf56740…
04-07 10:34:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	140	89¢	$125	0xe3ce55…
04-05 17:45:37	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	45	23¢	$10	0x83bba6…
04-05 10:16:19	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x4ae150…
04-05 09:21:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0xe1553d…
04-05 09:20:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xaaecdc…
04-05 09:01:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x459b85…
04-05 08:55:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	71	82¢	$58	0xf16f78…
04-05 06:53:55	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	22	84¢	$18	0x252acc…
04-05 06:13:09	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa295b4…
04-05 06:05:51	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x795542…
04-05 05:58:59	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0xb88eaa…
04-05 03:55:57	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x497c53…
04-04 22:36:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	115	87¢	$100	0xa0e836…
04-02 06:58:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x81f497…
04-02 06:58:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5c465c…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0xc72f5b…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xba925c…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x8e7c7d…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6bece0…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6725bc…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x37dee7…
04-02 06:58:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x0df05e…
03-31 15:58:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0xda53db…
03-31 15:44:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	75	80¢	$60	0xb906ba…
03-31 15:44:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0xc8507c…
03-31 15:43:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xd455e6…
03-31 05:14:07	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xafe54c…
03-31 05:10:55	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	No	SELL	87	78¢	$68	0x9f20a2…
03-31 05:10:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0x135116…
03-30 04:51:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x3f51b8…
03-29 06:47:00	military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	No	BUY	90	76¢	$68	0x55cdc3…
03-27 14:52:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x810df2…
03-25 18:29:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xfead8a…
03-25 18:26:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x06090d…
03-22 16:35:39	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0xcd78b8…
03-21 07:55:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0xbd2fb2…
03-21 07:54:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x39ccbe…
03-21 07:53:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	64	86¢	$55	0x9edbad…
03-21 05:31:15	will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x2fabc2…
03-20 09:45:05	will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe128de…
03-20 09:39:11	will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6e3971…
03-20 09:27:05	will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x6783b4…
03-19 13:36:57	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xd9a061…
03-18 17:27:37	ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xaa58aa…
03-18 16:47:07	ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x654027…
03-18 16:45:57	ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x139479…
03-18 16:44:59	ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xf50eb2…
03-14 08:58:33	will netanyahu tweet again by saturday	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x8d997c…
03-13 19:35:43	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0xcb062f…
03-13 19:35:39	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xbe810e…
03-13 19:35:39	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xa00ab7…
03-13 19:35:39	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x0c24a4…
03-13 19:34:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	51	96¢	$49	0x6a58aa…
03-13 13:30:01	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	75	67¢	$50	0x8905d8…
03-13 13:16:51	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x13de8e…
03-13 12:31:45	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0x4f5e0e…
03-13 12:18:29	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x4fedf4…
03-13 09:22:35	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	No	BUY	80	67¢	$54	0x4e6755…
03-13 09:03:59	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x6f10ed…
03-13 03:19:07	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	34	21¢	$7	0x72d75d…
03-11 20:55:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x18b319…
03-11 19:34:05	ucl lev ars 2026 03 11 draw	Yes	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x9a2b22…
03-11 19:15:53	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x3d838a…
03-11 19:03:01	ucl lev ars 2026 03 11 draw	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x82a704…
03-11 04:02:57	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0xe6c9e1…