Gray-Conduct — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$89

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-09 17:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

42% — —

Politics

34% — —

Other

24% 40% $-89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 72k on february 13	1	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	02-13 15:47
bitcoin above 98k on january 13	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	01-13 07:55
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$264	200	200	+0	open	—	02-23 05:18
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$254	200	200	+0	open	—	03-02 17:45
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$178	200	0	+200	open	—	02-26 16:24
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$130	200	0	+200	open	—	02-26 18:37
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	1	$100	200	0	+200	open	—	02-27 21:31
bitcoin above 74k on april 15	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	04-15 15:58
bitcoin above 84k on january 3	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	01-02 17:45
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	9	$79	91	91	+0	open	—	02-26 19:16
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	1	$69	100	0	+100	Up	+$31	05-05 05:06
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	1	$60	64	0	+64	open	—	01-05 03:13
epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	5	$52	200	200	+0	open	—	02-22 17:14
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?	2	$48	100	0	+100	No	$-48	05-08 06:09
bitcoin above 100k on january 15	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	01-15 07:21
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	1	$40	50	0	+50	Down	+$10	05-05 06:46
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$34	40	0	+40	No	+$6	05-05 12:37
will trump say reasonable during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	4	$34	80	0	+80	open	—	04-21 12:59
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	1	$32	50	0	+50	open	—	05-08 06:05
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5?	1	$31	50	0	+50	Up	+$19	05-05 17:13
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?	2	$31	40	0	+40	Yes	$-31	04-21 16:33
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	01-19 03:27
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	1	$26	40	0	+40	open	—	02-26 16:48
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	1	$26	50	0	+50	open	—	05-05 13:39
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	1	$24	50	0	+50	open	—	05-08 13:31
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 in May?	1	$24	50	0	+50	open	—	05-05 16:12
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8?	3	$23	48	0	+48	Up	$-23	05-08 06:49
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 in May?	2	$22	50	0	+50	Yes	$-22	05-05 13:32
FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?	3	$21	40	0	+40	open	—	04-21 13:46
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 5?	1	$20	50	0	+50	Up	$-20	05-05 18:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 17:24:11	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x33c7ff…
05-08 13:31:47	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x6bd0e0…
05-08 06:49:12	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x97fd9b…
05-08 06:09:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0xbd39d9…
05-08 06:09:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	75	48¢	$36	0x418cd4…
05-08 06:05:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x130379…
05-08 05:54:24	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xe61658…
05-08 04:36:24	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x35e672…
05-05 22:24:50	Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x0fa1bb…
05-05 18:28:58	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	65¢	$12	0xb141c2…
05-05 18:28:48	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x994b80…
05-05 17:30:52	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf69503…
05-05 17:13:16	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xac3d61…
05-05 16:12:36	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 in May?	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xeafe24…
05-05 15:35:28	Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xbb8b3a…
05-05 13:39:48	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x26347f…
05-05 13:32:28	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 in May?	No	BUY	42	45¢	$19	0x259622…
05-05 12:37:26	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0xdfd856…
05-05 12:09:02	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 in May?	No	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xe53c57…
05-05 08:28:42	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xc00e08…
05-05 06:46:32	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x3f3b03…
05-05 05:06:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x448316…
04-21 16:33:32	Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x8ce6b3…
04-21 16:33:16	Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	24	77¢	$18	0xcf0940…
04-21 13:46:12	FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?	No	BUY	36	52¢	$19	0x473d30…
04-21 13:02:56	FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc0a9e9…
04-21 12:59:04	will trump say reasonable during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x2851fb…
04-21 12:55:16	will trump say reasonable during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x593798…
04-21 12:52:30	will trump say reasonable during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	49	42¢	$21	0xde65c5…
04-21 11:21:08	FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9d427e…
04-21 08:14:30	will trump say reasonable during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x309531…
04-21 05:17:36	FDA approves Axsome Therapeutics' AXS-05?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x17254d…
04-15 15:58:40	bitcoin above 74k on april 15	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfa4440…
03-02 17:45:37	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x645e2f…
02-27 21:31:35	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xf410c6…
02-26 19:16:54	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	59	50¢	$30	0x0fe36e…
02-26 19:15:48	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	50¢	$16	0x70ce9d…
02-26 18:37:58	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x694c19…
02-26 16:48:32	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0xe97afa…
02-26 16:24:22	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xc0099e…
02-25 07:51:40	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x07e335…
02-24 13:18:34	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	36¢	$16	0x442ddb…
02-24 13:16:48	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xba2aa5…
02-24 13:16:48	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x921676…
02-24 13:16:48	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x16d546…
02-24 13:16:46	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x96d2f1…
02-23 15:39:20	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	36¢	$8	0x375e7e…
02-23 05:18:54	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x91a3fb…
02-23 01:46:42	Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$3	0xa99ba1…
02-22 17:14:36	epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	Yes	SELL	35	15¢	$5	0x381a4a…
02-22 17:14:34	epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	Yes	SELL	51	15¢	$8	0x717c55…
02-22 17:05:26	epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	Yes	SELL	101	15¢	$15	0x47a67f…
02-22 17:05:14	epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x83cab6…
02-22 16:35:32	epl tot ars 2026 02 22 tot	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x5731f5…
02-22 16:27:04	will trump deport less than 250000	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x4730de…
02-22 15:37:44	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x427ecb…
02-13 15:47:19	bitcoin above 72k on february 13	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0xbff5fc…
01-21 04:24:10	will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the united states in january 2026	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x7a988a…
01-19 03:27:56	will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xe10220…
01-15 07:21:40	bitcoin above 100k on january 15	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x4ac93b…
01-13 07:55:09	bitcoin above 98k on january 13	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x4199f8…
01-11 12:51:42	ethereum above 3000 on january 11	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5c7e0e…
01-05 03:13:07	another us strike on venezuela by january 10	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x1af38f…
01-02 17:45:59	bitcoin above 84k on january 3	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xabd51f…