Unimportant-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$70

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 06-28 13:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

35% 0% $-2

Politics

26% — —

Crypto

24% 0% $-2

Tech

12% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-4	$-1	38¢	$-2	$-0	06-07 08:16
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	+27	$2	6¢	$2	$-0	06-26 20:45
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	06-07 08:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	3	$6	68	33	+34	open	—	04-09 03:49
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	06-22 06:19
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	06-22 06:20
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?	1	$2	20	0	+20	open	—	04-06 00:00
xrp up or down april 7 2026 11am et	1	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-07 17:10
btc updown 15m 1774964700	1	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	03-31 14:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	04-06 16:39
Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	$-2	04-11 23:05
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 8am et	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	03-31 12:55
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 spread away 1pt5	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	04-06 11:11
will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	1	$2	18	0	+18	open	—	03-01 06:14
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$2	27	0	+27	open	—	06-26 20:45
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	2	$2	1,003	0	+1,003	Bilibili Gaming	$-2	05-12 14:28
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	04-04 17:05
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-13 15:49
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$2	48	0	+48	open	—	04-30 17:59
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by june 30	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	06-12 21:49
will bitcoin reach 74k april 6 12	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-06 21:21
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-05 11:04
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-07 07:00
will ethereum reach 2300 april 6 12	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-07 03:58
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-14 21:12
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$1	0	4	-4	open	—	06-07 08:16
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-16 19:49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-09 21:17
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-25 08:31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	03-27 11:50
Canada recession before 2027?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-01 06:21
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	03-01 05:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-13 20:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 13:16:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xecfcad…
06-26 20:45:32	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8219d9…
06-24 19:53:31	cs2 bca og1 2026 06 24	OG	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6c71af…
06-22 06:20:07	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x618a42…
06-22 06:19:50	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x5da1c5…
06-12 21:49:40	will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by june 30	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb14423…
06-12 20:28:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x85e125…
06-07 08:20:45	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xa44caa…
06-07 08:17:10	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8bc5cb…
06-07 08:16:04	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x3d8e96…
05-25 08:31:00	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xce01fb…
05-16 19:49:02	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Natus Vincere	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x58a24a…
05-12 14:28:01	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Invictus Gaming	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2a40d0…
05-12 12:55:46	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Invictus Gaming	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa837f0…
05-07 07:00:47	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x7a530e…
04-30 17:59:18	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xab7850…
04-29 16:29:48	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb34481…
04-14 21:12:12	Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x6c349d…
04-13 20:23:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x48f78a…
04-13 15:49:45	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf63558…
04-11 23:05:49	Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x2ac652…
04-10 20:13:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x9ee107…
04-09 21:19:11	Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7e5d73…
04-09 21:18:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xeb2734…
04-09 21:17:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x037330…
04-09 03:49:39	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x1f4080…
04-08 15:26:03	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	33	5¢	$2	0xf9ba30…
04-08 08:47:27	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x52fc49…
04-07 17:10:27	xrp up or down april 7 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xebc038…
04-07 03:58:23	will ethereum reach 2300 april 6 12	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xf53802…
04-06 21:21:07	will bitcoin reach 74k april 6 12	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x50b15c…
04-06 16:41:21	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7fa1fe…
04-06 16:41:19	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x2bd177…
04-06 16:39:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x55d1c1…
04-06 11:11:27	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 spread away 1pt5	FC Bayern München	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x029c4e…
04-06 00:00:55	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x740f3a…
04-05 11:04:13	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x1e66b0…
04-04 17:05:27	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x2154c1…
03-31 14:00:19	btc updown 15m 1774964700	Down	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x24f15d…
03-31 12:55:21	bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xd2cce3…
03-31 10:06:37	ukraine agrees not to join nato by march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x37093c…
03-29 18:49:42	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe1d3c8…
03-27 12:05:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x02cee9…
03-27 11:50:59	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3c8b51…
03-01 06:21:23	Canada recession before 2027?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2d11d4…
03-01 06:14:55	will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xe0f3f5…
03-01 06:10:31	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3fc3b6…
03-01 06:03:11	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xcd16c9…
03-01 06:01:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5b4acf…
03-01 05:58:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x317b28…