Occasional-Exasperation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$458

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 07-03 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

64% 0% $-8

Other

31% — —

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No		+38	$5	38¢	$14	+$9	06-21 14:36
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No		+33	$3	0¢	$0	$-3	06-20 20:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$50	33	33	+0	open	—	06-20 10:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$40	32	32	+0	open	—	04-29 09:52
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	6	$33	64	63	+1	open	—	04-29 19:29
congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	2	$28	27	27	+0	open	—	06-23 21:55
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	4	$22	182	0	+182	open	—	06-21 14:48
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	2	$22	0	26	-26	open	—	06-14 18:46
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	2	$16	91	91	+0	open	—	06-23 21:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$16	24	24	+0	open	—	05-24 14:40
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$15	21	21	+0	open	—	06-22 21:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	3	$15	31	31	+0	open	—	05-24 14:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$11	25	25	+0	open	—	05-24 14:41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$10	179	179	+0	open	—	04-29 08:39
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	06-12 17:56
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	05-24 14:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	36	0	+36	open	—	06-13 14:33
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-29 08:37
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	1	$9	0	88	-88	open	—	06-20 20:08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$9	38	38	+0	open	—	05-24 14:42
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	4	$7	327	171	+156	open	—	04-30 10:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-27 10:22
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	1	$5	26	0	+26	open	—	05-24 14:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-27 16:25
israel closes its airspace by july 31	1	$5	30	0	+30	open	—	06-20 20:10
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-20 20:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	1	$5	30	0	+30	open	—	06-20 20:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	05-24 14:44
will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	1	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	06-21 14:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$5	15	0	+15	No	$-5	04-27 16:25
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	1	$5	38	0	+38	open	—	05-24 14:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	1	$5	92	0	+92	open	—	05-19 16:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 14:17:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$0	0xaed4d1…
07-03 14:17:01	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x6b8661…
06-23 21:55:58	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	91	7¢	$6	0xf03beb…
06-23 21:55:50	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8aba9f…
06-22 21:21:40	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	SELL	21	56¢	$12	0x379d43…
06-21 15:10:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x0ba01c…
06-21 14:48:46	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x446376…
06-21 14:42:19	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x87e4ff…
06-21 14:42:08	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xbc5aff…
06-21 14:41:44	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x0ed87d…
06-21 14:39:02	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xdf8d7d…
06-21 14:38:37	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xf65657…
06-21 14:36:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x9bfddb…
06-21 14:35:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x5f172f…
06-20 20:35:02	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x3cbec0…
06-20 20:30:11	Tucker Carlson federally charged?	Yes	BUY	86	1¢	$1	0x1c239c…
06-20 20:28:17	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x4b4b90…
06-20 20:25:16	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xdd52b6…
06-20 20:24:29	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0xab773e…
06-20 20:19:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	136	2¢	$3	0x51cb1e…
06-20 20:18:38	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x53e130…
06-20 20:18:32	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x17eeea…
06-20 20:17:49	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x97288a…
06-20 20:17:05	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	73	4¢	$3	0x9635a7…
06-20 20:12:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7afd6a…
06-20 20:10:38	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x07673b…
06-20 20:08:37	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	10¢	$9	0x2ea9af…
06-20 20:07:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xe8d3a2…
06-20 10:37:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	33	89¢	$30	0x9e1d8e…
06-14 21:55:30	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x95a185…
06-14 21:53:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0xeda9e3…
06-14 18:46:18	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0xb7007a…
06-14 18:46:13	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x1d2305…
06-13 14:33:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x30a034…
06-12 17:56:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x13ed07…
05-24 14:52:20	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xabf915…
05-24 14:52:01	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x6f6961…
05-24 14:49:50	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x8bb94e…
05-24 14:45:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xfc029e…
05-24 14:44:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xd098f7…
05-24 14:42:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	10¢	$4	0x30730c…
05-24 14:41:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	24¢	$6	0x6cb4fd…
05-24 14:40:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0x813e01…
05-24 14:40:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	32¢	$6	0x01d2a3…
05-24 14:40:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	45¢	$11	0x80f6be…
05-19 16:15:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0xc5d795…
05-19 16:13:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x7b4473…
05-19 16:11:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x280ebc…
05-06 15:10:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	7¢	$3	0xb5c322…
05-05 21:07:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x8dcfe5…
04-30 10:02:00	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x4674b7…
04-29 19:29:04	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	SELL	23	9¢	$2	0x40eb1b…
04-29 15:13:56	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	195	1¢	$2	0x8648d8…
04-29 14:29:36	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x132266…
04-29 14:29:14	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	132	1¢	$1	0xf92c42…
04-29 14:28:28	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0xadad8a…
04-29 10:17:44	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x75b67e…
04-29 10:16:08	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	26	79¢	$21	0x9f4e41…
04-29 10:12:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x03507e…
04-29 10:10:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x7a8950…
04-29 10:10:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x1eb7e9…
04-29 10:09:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x481682…
04-29 10:08:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x760780…
04-29 10:06:28	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xc885a2…
04-29 10:01:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xaa062f…
04-29 09:55:26	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x35d8b9…
04-29 09:52:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	32	64¢	$20	0x0da884…
04-29 09:51:50	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x2fd54b…
04-29 08:44:22	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	132	2¢	$3	0xb3ecbe…
04-29 08:39:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	179	3¢	$5	0xa294c4…
04-29 08:37:10	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x26b510…
04-27 17:26:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x2f6775…
04-27 16:30:10	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x87f301…
04-27 16:27:32	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x14ea39…
04-27 16:26:28	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0x992e4c…
04-27 16:25:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x986660…
04-27 16:25:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x48c551…
04-27 11:15:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x58c7a5…
04-27 10:22:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xeda297…