Frail-Tactics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

90.8%

Resolved

Trades

418

lifetime

Volume

$7.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-04-09

last 07-08 16:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

43% — —

Other

40% 80% +$10

Politics

17% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+100	$38	52¢	$52	+$14	06-27 22:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	9	$646	904	904	+0	open	—	06-05 20:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	3	$377	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 16:54
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	2	$298	200	200	+0	open	—	06-11 19:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$291	170	170	+0	open	—	06-05 18:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$214	220	0	+220	open	—	06-07 20:06
spy up or down on july 7 2026	13	$195	700	700	+0	open	—	07-07 17:14
spy up or down on june 22 2026	12	$195	315	315	+0	open	—	06-22 19:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3?	3	$184	200	200	+0	open	—	06-03 06:50
spy up or down on july 2 2026	7	$159	300	300	+0	open	—	07-02 14:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	2	$147	110	110	+0	open	—	05-24 09:19
spy up or down on june 30 2026	18	$146	684	784	-100	open	—	06-30 17:47
spy up or down on june 25 2026	9	$138	105	105	+0	open	—	06-25 20:01
spy up or down on june 24 2026	10	$134	163	153	+10	open	—	06-24 19:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	5	$128	100	100	+0	open	—	05-24 08:27
spy up or down on june 26 2026	18	$105	158	148	+10	open	—	06-26 19:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	2	$102	0	104	-104	open	—	06-02 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	05-24 11:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	05-24 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	1	$100	131	0	+131	open	—	05-24 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	05-24 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	1	$100	106	0	+106	open	—	05-24 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$100	106	0	+106	open	—	05-24 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$98	110	0	+110	open	—	05-24 09:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$97	99	0	+99	open	—	05-23 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	05-23 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	05-24 08:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	05-24 08:08
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	2	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	06-02 19:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$93	100	0	+100	open	—	05-23 19:17
spy up or down on july 1 2026	10	$91	168	168	+0	open	—	07-01 17:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 16:28:01	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x18acae…
07-08 14:45:29	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xa05c18…
07-08 14:45:25	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0x4b673a…
07-08 14:45:22	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0xa510b4…
07-08 14:45:17	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x8af8e1…
07-08 08:57:59	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x4389f1…
07-08 08:27:19	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	97	20¢	$19	0x2030d4…
07-08 08:27:16	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xba2c94…
07-08 08:27:16	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x239c37…
07-07 17:14:53	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x5d46cf…
07-07 17:05:47	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x05bbcf…
07-07 16:50:31	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xe8e13f…
07-07 16:47:14	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x15418c…
07-07 14:27:31	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x71dc02…
07-07 14:14:26	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xdf19e4…
07-07 13:58:07	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0x6e995a…
07-07 13:58:01	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x570a1b…
07-07 13:58:01	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x1ea3b5…
07-07 13:57:59	spy up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x855aa0…
07-04 18:23:26	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0xce8187…
07-04 18:23:26	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x3affa1…
07-04 18:21:38	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xc0c516…
07-04 18:21:37	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x79a373…
07-04 18:21:35	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xa2fede…
07-04 18:21:35	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x2597ff…
07-04 18:18:32	btc updown 15m 1783188900	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x66e701…
07-04 17:35:49	btc updown 15m 1783186200	Down	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xdcb8a5…
07-04 17:31:38	btc updown 15m 1783186200	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd00ce1…
07-04 17:02:16	btc updown 15m 1783184400	Up	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x33be06…
07-04 17:01:37	btc updown 15m 1783184400	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x49f038…
07-04 16:49:08	btc updown 15m 1783183500	Up	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x62f335…
07-04 16:47:34	btc updown 15m 1783183500	Up	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xab6741…
07-04 16:47:34	btc updown 15m 1783183500	Up	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x87c477…
07-02 14:42:13	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	SELL	300	28¢	$84	0xeda18f…
07-02 13:38:28	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x942243…
07-02 12:21:55	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0x21b7cc…
07-02 12:20:56	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xe3ae37…
07-02 12:20:56	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xc8899b…
07-02 12:20:55	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	57	31¢	$18	0x100aaa…
07-02 12:16:25	spy up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x194743…
07-01 17:19:11	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Down	SELL	26	26¢	$7	0xfb97c8…
07-01 14:21:56	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x806352…
07-01 14:21:55	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbdb0ca…
07-01 14:21:55	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7857c7…
07-01 13:51:31	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x50e8f0…
07-01 13:35:40	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xb1b803…
07-01 09:50:16	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	SELL	42	32¢	$13	0x5b5625…
07-01 07:10:08	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xb08e9f…
07-01 07:10:07	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xb6ea99…
07-01 07:10:07	spy up or down on july 1 2026	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x573bcc…
06-30 17:47:14	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0x8ac9f7…
06-30 16:16:35	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	501	3¢	$15	0x6f7d66…
06-30 16:15:37	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	SELL	180	4¢	$7	0x18e5c7…
06-30 15:34:31	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0xb72d3e…
06-30 15:34:29	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x44057e…
06-30 15:34:28	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0x0e2fe3…
06-30 15:33:20	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x142ea9…
06-30 15:33:17	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	74	7¢	$5	0x481e9a…
06-30 15:14:55	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x6804c6…
06-30 15:14:53	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	75	14¢	$11	0x81e743…
06-30 15:14:49	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	75	14¢	$11	0xcd41a6…
06-30 13:58:56	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x911f89…
06-30 13:35:28	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xd3349f…
06-30 13:35:26	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xddd458…
06-30 13:35:25	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x6004ec…
06-30 13:35:25	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x29ca8a…
06-30 12:26:52	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x0f7feb…
06-30 08:56:22	spy up or down on june 30 2026	Down	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xf7bb43…
06-29 14:07:55	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	158	26¢	$41	0x8e557d…
06-29 11:21:13	btc updown 5m 1782732000	Up	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x1f7c82…
06-29 11:20:29	btc updown 5m 1782732000	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa4110b…
06-29 11:20:29	btc updown 5m 1782732000	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6893ed…
06-29 11:20:29	btc updown 5m 1782732000	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0x27c54f…
06-29 11:20:29	btc updown 5m 1782732000	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x13e2f3…
06-29 10:59:46	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	90	18¢	$16	0x8cffbb…
06-28 22:20:44	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x258019…
06-28 22:17:31	spx up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	57	30¢	$17	0x08a3a7…
06-28 19:01:20	btc updown 5m 1782673200	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x27965c…
06-28 18:43:38	btc updown 5m 1782672000	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xdcad6b…
06-27 22:49:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x19fae7…
06-26 19:32:10	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd25178…
06-26 19:14:23	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	26	46¢	$12	0xa13305…
06-26 19:00:04	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0xfb9bca…
06-26 18:52:37	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x796f04…
06-26 18:49:38	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x324ad4…
06-26 18:47:49	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6f48fc…
06-26 18:30:46	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x573bf4…
06-26 14:00:21	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x4d7c95…
06-26 13:57:33	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xe113ce…
06-26 13:57:33	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xc0c105…
06-26 13:57:30	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xe1432a…
06-26 13:41:01	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	26	25¢	$7	0x06ded3…
06-26 13:40:57	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x4e7cd6…
06-26 13:40:52	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe09b16…
06-26 13:40:43	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xded379…
06-26 13:18:27	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	37	28¢	$10	0xd9ab20…
06-26 13:18:25	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x9699b7…
06-26 13:17:10	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x7d5ca2…
06-25 20:01:53	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x48b617…
06-25 19:55:11	spy up or down on june 25 2026	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7dc216…