(anonymous) 0xcb86c3…d6feda
cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$2.36K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.50K
Hit rate
54.9%
Resolved
21
Trades
1,927
lifetime
Volume
$83.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$44
Open exposure
$45.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-19
last 10-27 01:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
77% 62% -$4,715
Other
17% 100% +$344
Tech
3% — —
Sports
2% 100% +$2,014
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
32 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +15,306 $10,371 70¢ $10.8K +$420 10-26 15:31
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +4,770 $3,040 66¢ $3.2K +$132 10-24 22:44
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +3,272 $2,687 88¢ $2.9K +$176 10-25 00:44
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +4,344 $2,849 66¢ $2.8K -$4 10-26 05:12
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,635 $2,458 68¢ $2.5K +$31 10-26 13:07
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,349 $2,128 66¢ $2.2K +$65 10-25 21:28
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,485 $2,228 60¢ $2.1K -$120 10-24 21:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,792 $1,220 90¢ $1.6K +$401 10-24 20:32
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +2,151 $1,457 68¢ $1.5K +$16 10-25 01:59
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,712 $1,452 84¢ $1.4K -$5 10-27 00:00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +1,617 $1,368 88¢ $1.4K +$63 10-27 00:00
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,835 $1,248 70¢ $1.3K +$46 10-25 21:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,373 $1,222 88¢ $1.2K -$7 10-26 23:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +1,581 $1,041 63¢ $998 -$42 10-24 18:53
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,055 $981 92¢ $976 -$5 10-26 23:59
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,324 $712 68¢ $900 +$188 10-23 04:55
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +1,254 $895 72¢ $896 +$2 10-26 20:06
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,359 $897 66¢ $890 -$7 10-25 16:09
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +991 $678 73¢ $723 +$45 10-25 19:58
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +913 $680 74¢ $671 -$9 10-27 00:56
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +947 $650 65¢ $615 -$35 10-25 18:32
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +826 $600 72¢ $591 -$10 10-26 20:39
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +649 $462 83¢ $539 +$77 10-26 15:10
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +475 $437 92¢ $435 -$2 10-26 01:30
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +613 $412 70¢ $426 +$14 10-26 19:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +670 $416 62¢ $412 -$4 10-26 09:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +399 $318 92¢ $369 +$52 10-26 08:55
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +585 $359 60¢ $354 -$5 10-26 17:13
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +396 $300 78¢ $307 +$7 10-15 09:46
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +309 $253 88¢ $272 +$19 10-25 21:44