Busy-Conspiracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$262

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-30 20:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Other

30% — —

Crypto

9% 0% $-75

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No		-420	$-269	62¢	$-262	+$6	06-30 20:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$713	524	524	+0	open	—	03-19 09:37
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$371	195	615	-420	open	—	06-30 20:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$221	172	172	+0	open	—	04-08 00:31
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$166	125	125	+0	open	—	04-08 00:31
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$161	188	188	+0	open	—	04-08 11:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	1	$101	198	0	+198	open	—	04-04 20:42
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$80	95	95	+0	open	—	04-12 07:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$70	333	0	+333	open	—	04-04 20:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$53	73	0	+73	open	—	02-28 17:46
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	1	$50	110	0	+110	open	—	03-25 10:29
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$44	1,692	0	+1,692	open	—	02-09 12:27
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$44	629	0	+629	open	—	02-09 12:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$30	100	0	+100	open	—	03-25 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$30	57	0	+57	open	—	05-01 09:40
btc updown 5m 1773912900	1	$26	2,600	0	+2,600	open	—	03-19 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	1	$25	33	0	+33	open	—	05-01 09:37
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$22	81	0	+81	open	—	01-07 12:41
eth updown 5m 1773913200	1	$21	70	0	+70	open	—	03-19 09:42
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	1	$21	46	0	+46	open	—	03-25 10:20
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$20	2,222	0	+2,222	open	—	03-25 10:26
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$20	250	0	+250	open	—	03-25 10:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$20	36	0	+36	Down	$-20	05-06 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$20	36	0	+36	Down	$-20	05-06 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$20	65	0	+65	Up	$-20	05-06 16:05
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	1	$15	750	0	+750	open	—	03-19 09:44
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$13	53	0	+53	open	—	02-09 12:27
bitcoin above 74k on march 19	1	$11	743	0	+743	open	—	03-19 09:43
btc updown 5m 1775646600	1	$11	22	0	+22	open	—	04-08 11:12
btc updown 5m 1781524200	2	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-15 11:54
will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	1	$10	837	0	+837	open	—	03-25 10:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 20:46:41	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	615	52¢	$320	0x30d9ac…
06-15 11:54:21	btc updown 5m 1781524200	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xe1bc74…
06-15 11:54:19	btc updown 5m 1781524200	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x58e65f…
06-15 11:26:28	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	195	26¢	$51	0x5ec9f3…
05-06 16:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x592de7…
05-06 16:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x4806c3…
05-06 16:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xbfc21c…
05-06 16:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x3b88ec…
05-05 09:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa990ca…
05-01 09:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x414e9a…
05-01 09:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x381398…
04-25 08:30:56	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xef32c2…
04-12 07:04:53	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	95	32¢	$30	0xf6edec…
04-09 08:05:41	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0xa58c41…
04-08 11:12:01	btc updown 5m 1775646600	Up	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x910290…
04-08 11:09:47	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	SELL	188	70¢	$131	0x5e2384…
04-08 00:31:29	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	100¢	$124	0x875fa8…
04-08 00:31:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	172	99¢	$171	0xb6a4d2…
04-04 20:44:19	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	125	34¢	$42	0x969c08…
04-04 20:42:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	333	21¢	$70	0x6a68dc…
04-04 20:42:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	198	51¢	$101	0xf24fd5…
03-25 10:33:27	will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	Yes	BUY	837	1¢	$10	0x272ea4…
03-25 10:31:23	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xd7728d…
03-25 10:29:59	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x570d36…
03-25 10:29:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	110	46¢	$50	0x4beca9…
03-25 10:28:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x7878b9…
03-25 10:26:49	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0xacc8f4…
03-25 10:20:43	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	Yes	BUY	46	45¢	$21	0x96a404…
03-25 10:20:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x64a460…
03-19 09:44:49	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$10	0x51c955…
03-19 09:44:31	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	Yes	BUY	750	2¢	$15	0x5a3893…
03-19 09:43:17	bitcoin above 74k on march 19	Yes	BUY	743	1¢	$11	0x1f2e14…
03-19 09:42:23	eth updown 5m 1773913200	Down	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0xd5a7a6…
03-19 09:39:55	btc updown 5m 1773912900	Down	BUY	2,600	1¢	$26	0x23753a…
03-19 09:37:13	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	524	98¢	$514	0x2b4946…
03-15 20:04:31	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	524	38¢	$199	0x1cadd3…
02-28 17:46:47	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	73	73¢	$53	0xc91d75…
02-09 12:27:53	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	53	24¢	$13	0x64e0ec…
02-09 12:27:43	us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	Yes	BUY	629	7¢	$44	0x0a01ce…
02-09 12:27:15	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	Yes	BUY	1,692	3¢	$44	0xca69fa…
01-07 12:41:49	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	Yes	BUY	81	27¢	$22	0x16b7ca…