Short-Term-Collectivisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$35

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-13

last 06-05 10:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 67% $-1

Other

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+5	$4	70¢	$3	$-0	06-05 10:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-18 09:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-18 09:22
Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 13, 3PM ET?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-13 18:22
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	06-05 10:19
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-15 09:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	06-05 10:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	$-4	05-13 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	+$2	05-13 09:17
Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 13, 11PM ET?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	05-14 02:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 10:21:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x92cbfc…
06-05 10:19:00	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf5afe7…
06-05 10:09:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x934371…
05-18 09:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x7f7ea0…
05-18 09:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x20b4b4…
05-15 09:56:30	T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5	Over	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1f7e8d…
05-14 02:48:50	Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 13, 11PM ET?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf5f618…
05-13 18:22:00	Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 13, 3PM ET?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd3efea…
05-13 09:17:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x91b08f…
05-13 08:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xafea97…