Grounded-Bid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

46.0%

Resolved

Trades

172

lifetime

Volume

$3.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$96

1 position

First seen

2026-01-28

last 06-20 14:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-22

Politics

13% 50% $-1

Crypto

12% — —

Tech

10% — —

Pop-Culture

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes		-100	$-98	96¢	$-96	+$2	06-09 17:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	11	$202	175	175	+0	open	—	05-18 23:13
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	23	$149	155	155	+0	open	—	05-18 22:34
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$128	67	67	+0	open	—	04-30 13:02
gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	12	$127	37	100	-63	open	—	06-04 08:55
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	2	$126	64	64	+0	open	—	04-30 09:01
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$126	66	66	+0	open	—	04-30 00:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$125	67	67	+0	Yes	+$0	04-30 03:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$125	67	67	+0	open	—	04-30 14:08
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	2	$124	66	66	+0	open	—	04-29 23:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$124	69	69	+0	Yes	$-1	04-30 02:01
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	9	$122	140	140	+0	open	—	05-17 14:30
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$122	73	73	+0	open	—	04-30 14:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$120	74	74	+0	open	—	04-30 14:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$118	329	329	+0	open	—	04-30 14:09
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	1	$98	0	100	-100	open	—	06-09 17:28
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	1	$96	0	100	-100	open	—	06-11 00:42
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	5	$95	60	60	+0	open	—	05-17 09:59
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$91	71	71	+0	open	—	04-30 07:02
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$85	79	79	+0	open	—	04-30 05:01
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$82	70	70	+0	open	—	04-30 05:02
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$77	77	77	+0	open	—	04-30 04:01
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	9	$71	74	74	+0	open	—	05-09 14:37
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	2	$67	50	50	+0	open	—	05-18 17:13
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$65	420	420	+0	open	—	04-30 14:12
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.0B?	2	$59	50	50	+0	open	—	05-18 14:45
bitcoin above 74k on february 7	5	$42	24	19	+5	open	—	02-07 02:25
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	05-14 08:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	4	$28	31	31	+0	open	—	05-09 14:43
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$24	48	0	+48	open	—	05-08 14:02
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	2	$23	80	80	+0	open	—	05-18 00:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 14:41:38	will australia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134480	Yes	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0xd528bd…
06-18 12:38:11	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	44	14¢	$6	0x9cdb4d…
06-18 12:30:17	will ivory coast reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134485	Yes	BUY	47	14¢	$7	0xbbad3c…
06-17 19:15:40	will australia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134480	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x15568e…
06-11 00:42:43	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x462ce4…
06-09 17:28:28	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x3b01d3…
06-04 08:55:57	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0x95ae0c…
06-04 00:40:09	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcd0fe4…
06-04 00:40:07	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb13d8e…
06-04 00:40:04	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xd9f219…
06-04 00:38:03	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0xf601db…
06-03 15:56:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0x6ff882…
06-03 14:02:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x57cd60…
06-03 13:59:15	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x4ba968…
06-03 09:05:54	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$24	0xd88f2e…
05-29 03:48:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0xccaaa8…
05-29 03:07:58	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x547f4b…
05-29 01:14:27	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xc3ea2c…
05-18 23:13:03	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0xc2fe55…
05-18 22:58:42	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xa3c688…
05-18 22:48:16	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x4d1b5b…
05-18 22:34:00	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x63d083…
05-18 22:33:48	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x15c37f…
05-18 22:31:05	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x834ed7…
05-18 22:29:17	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	25	46¢	$12	0x3bd7cd…
05-18 22:25:47	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x2c3b7f…
05-18 17:13:54	Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x113713…
05-18 16:33:58	Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x233220…
05-18 14:45:28	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.0B?	No	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x7635af…
05-18 14:37:58	Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x1ccc3e…
05-18 14:19:27	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x6f09b4…
05-18 14:01:34	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xecaeac…
05-18 13:48:08	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	35	66¢	$23	0xc81313…
05-18 13:47:47	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	35	67¢	$23	0xefaa48…
05-18 13:38:55	Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x194c17…
05-18 06:15:12	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xd58460…
05-18 06:12:43	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x36822d…
05-18 00:19:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	14¢	$11	0xa89234…
05-18 00:05:17	Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.60B?	No	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x6c07f6…
05-17 23:49:46	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0x86b76f…
05-17 23:35:02	Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.60B?	No	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x846fa9…
05-17 20:24:57	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.0B?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x42e844…
05-17 15:49:49	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x4847a4…
05-17 15:00:25	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0xe46ce6…
05-17 14:30:21	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x0d83d0…
05-17 14:29:02	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb22c11…
05-17 14:21:57	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xf405f7…
05-17 14:20:34	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x02e140…
05-17 13:56:10	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x23e00e…
05-17 13:55:45	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0x969c47…
05-17 13:54:42	Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xba733e…
05-17 13:54:14	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xba2e90…
05-17 13:50:46	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x615382…
05-17 13:50:14	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xad532d…
05-17 13:49:45	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xd4bd7e…
05-17 13:09:54	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x105c09…
05-17 10:28:47	Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.35B?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x7841d9…
05-17 10:28:16	Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.35B?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x965712…
05-17 10:27:46	Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.35B?	Yes	SELL	34	6¢	$2	0x59b308…
05-17 10:26:18	Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.35B?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x61b6e9…
05-17 09:59:51	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x389289…
05-17 09:59:28	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x8a7a95…
05-17 09:15:03	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xa7a997…
05-17 08:05:59	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xf6e095…
05-17 08:05:50	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x6197bc…
05-17 07:45:03	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xcf9178…
05-17 07:43:47	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x0b9ffa…
05-17 07:42:34	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0xa25a1e…
05-17 07:42:08	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0xf6205c…
05-17 07:41:24	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xaf11db…
05-17 07:41:17	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xd18713…
05-17 07:41:17	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x08cf54…
05-17 07:09:12	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x9b554d…
05-17 07:05:30	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xa3e5d0…
05-17 07:02:57	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x91a14a…
05-17 06:41:31	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xc88dc8…
05-17 05:10:47	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x49e72c…
05-17 05:10:36	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x00955b…
05-17 05:10:31	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x8b83d4…
05-17 03:06:18	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xb0e7f1…
05-17 02:35:30	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xffeab5…
05-17 02:25:59	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x974404…
05-17 01:45:15	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6cc018…
05-17 00:59:25	Ebola emergency by June 30?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x792428…
05-17 00:23:15	Ebola emergency by June 30?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x5653f0…
05-16 21:49:08	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0xa0b2a5…
05-16 21:44:34	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xeefb9d…
05-16 21:15:53	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x5f7202…
05-16 14:25:31	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x5e8fe4…
05-16 14:22:08	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbb4ea5…
05-16 12:37:36	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0xf3944f…
05-16 12:37:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xe19e2c…
05-16 08:31:47	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0xd17574…
05-16 07:36:27	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0xd5691e…
05-15 15:02:39	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x1032d6…
05-15 15:02:38	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0x59b34e…
05-15 14:32:35	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xc6ccb9…
05-14 14:55:23	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xcdddbe…
05-14 14:45:07	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x3c11aa…
05-14 09:51:33	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x37776c…