Excitable-Hill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$141

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

129

Trades

258

lifetime

Volume

$4.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$120

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-27 15:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 32% -$212

Politics

36% 48% +$75

Other

17% 42% +$15

Tech

1% 0% -$30

Sports

0% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+102	$65	66¢	$68	+$3	10-12 14:01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		+575	$50	9¢	$52	+$2	10-21 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$242	143	143	+0	Yes	+$42	09-21 08:53
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$189	119	119	+0	No	+$49	01-19 15:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:45 UTC	3	$160	222	0	+222	Up	-$21	02-06 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 14:00 UTC	7	$150	171	49	+122	Up	-$100	02-09 14:13
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$147	228	156	+72	No	+$18	01-09 16:18
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	5	$147	175	175	+0	No	+$17	09-08 13:22
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$139	1,816	1,816	+0	No	-$61	01-26 15:43
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	2	$125	79	79	+0	Yes	+$25	10-14 15:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 12:45 UTC	3	$115	142	37	+106	Down	+$0	02-09 12:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$97	68	68	+0	No	+$37	07-15 14:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$90	56	56	+0	No	+$20	04-27 10:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 11:30 UTC	4	$90	286	0	+286	Up	-$11	02-06 11:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$82	62	62	+0	No	+$42	04-22 08:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 11:00 UTC	5	$80	167	0	+167	Down	-$21	02-06 11:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:00 UTC	3	$80	183	0	+183	Up	-$37	02-06 13:11
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$79	208	208	+0	open	—	10-27 15:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	5	$71	184	86	+97	Down	+$31	08-19 11:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 11:15 UTC	4	$70	230	0	+230	Up	+$35	02-06 11:27
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$65	102	0	+102	open	—	10-12 14:01
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	2	$62	65	65	+0	Yes	+$32	06-19 09:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:15 UTC	2	$60	178	0	+178	Down	+$3	02-06 13:19
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 14:45 UTC	2	$60	170	0	+170	Down	+$40	02-06 14:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 12:15 UTC	2	$60	159	0	+159	Down	+$13	02-06 12:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:30 UTC	2	$60	172	0	+172	Up	+$26	02-06 13:34
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 15:15 UTC	2	$60	124	0	+124	Up	-$22	02-06 15:27
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	2	$58	94	94	+0	open	—	09-24 12:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 13:15 UTC	5	$55	70	68	+2	Up	+$15	02-09 13:27
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$53	37	37	+0	No	+$13	07-02 11:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$50	30	30	+0	No	+$10	04-16 09:11
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$50	575	0	+575	open	—	10-21 11:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:35:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	14¢	$29	0xf27a48…
10-23 11:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x27d928…
10-23 11:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	61¢	$8	0x7bf498…
10-23 11:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xffcfaf…
10-23 11:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9b954c…
10-23 11:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x9ff792…
10-23 11:19:54	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0xaae461…
10-21 11:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0x8bf5cf…
10-21 11:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x71b95d…
10-21 11:57:33	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	575	9¢	$50	0xab57f6…
10-20 14:19:59	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0xb0ba05…
10-14 15:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x52ce81…
10-14 15:07:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x964847…
10-14 15:07:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:05 UTC	Down	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x748e76…
10-14 15:05:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 15:05 UTC	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x30d09d…
10-14 15:02:49	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	79	95¢	$75	0x33ae82…
10-12 14:01:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	102	64¢	$65	0xcbb55b…
10-09 08:22:36	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xa6a077…
09-24 12:30:48	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	55¢	$23	0x36feaf…
09-24 12:30:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	30¢	$28	0xb6ebd2…
09-24 09:27:42	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x2bf2e8…
09-24 09:27:11	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x287c87…
09-21 08:53:09	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	143	100¢	$142	0x89e8b1…
09-08 13:22:37	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	85	7¢	$6	0x22d179…
09-01 12:16:34	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	85	30¢	$25	0x279d93…
09-01 12:11:54	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x680b62…
08-27 12:32:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xee8bb1…
08-27 12:30:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x49aadf…
08-26 11:26:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x8db878…
08-19 11:20:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xf9e7d9…
08-19 11:16:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbe217b…
08-19 11:14:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	97	5¢	$5	0x9d2001…
08-19 11:13:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	Up	SELL	62	56¢	$35	0x138dff…
08-19 11:12:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x12e780…
08-19 11:11:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	Up	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0xc0c889…
08-19 11:10:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x38a208…
08-14 09:58:46	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x403225…
08-14 09:54:04	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xb11108…
07-17 07:36:49	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0x79fd1a…
07-15 14:13:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0xeafeed…
07-06 07:23:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x07ffc0…
07-03 15:42:05	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0xfde409…
07-02 11:58:50	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xac0504…
07-02 11:55:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0x66648f…
06-25 13:29:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xfaf8d8…
06-25 13:28:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0x583018…
06-23 09:29:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x44941d…
06-19 09:39:22	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	No	SELL	65	72¢	$47	0xb29d3e…
06-15 17:33:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	263	4¢	$10	0x484a1c…
06-14 08:16:28	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	278	2¢	$6	0x642a46…
06-14 04:42:40	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	91	84¢	$76	0x79c645…
06-09 14:41:22	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	No	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0x860f29…
06-04 17:03:58	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x0fab48…
06-04 16:31:01	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	278	5¢	$15	0xafca0a…
06-04 16:30:34	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0xfea17c…
05-19 08:13:15	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0x0ea6c3…
05-18 15:17:49	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	318	9¢	$30	0x97d136…
05-15 08:45:30	Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xc72328…
05-15 08:45:25	Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xfd8117…
05-15 08:45:14	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x3f8b9f…
05-14 15:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x642db2…
05-14 15:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xec2489…
05-14 15:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x766f54…
05-13 12:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x3722ee…
05-04 09:18:10	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	71	13¢	$9	0xbd1d86…
04-27 10:44:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0xd708a0…
04-27 10:42:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0x4fd605…
04-27 09:14:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x4056ed…
04-23 10:42:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xea3cde…
04-23 10:39:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x523180…
04-23 10:31:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x93d210…
04-23 10:29:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfab3a8…
04-23 06:42:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xabfed7…
04-22 08:43:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0xa50542…
04-21 13:52:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x79c271…
04-20 13:56:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xa85c30…
04-17 16:45:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x26d842…
04-17 16:45:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0x22b118…
04-17 16:38:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xf251d7…
04-16 09:23:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x82126f…
04-16 09:20:20	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0x56c65a…
04-16 09:20:12	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xa03ac2…
04-16 09:15:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x8f7f56…
04-16 09:15:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0xaddd66…
04-16 09:11:42	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x5e4b74…
04-08 09:22:05	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x477ca3…
04-08 09:16:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xc65e94…
04-08 09:16:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x762d70…
04-07 15:50:13	will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x3981f8…
04-06 09:11:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x231af7…
04-06 09:08:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x41e517…
03-30 08:14:38	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xb73b92…
03-23 09:12:15	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x76815b…
03-23 09:10:39	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	29	35¢	$10	0xd925f5…
03-20 08:50:31	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	SELL	35	13¢	$5	0xa4d9a2…
03-18 13:59:49	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x36a20a…
03-16 15:16:15	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xa4c0ab…
03-09 13:29:03	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xb80c59…
03-09 13:28:37	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x324986…
03-09 07:58:13	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	SELL	33	21¢	$7	0x0094cd…