Sophisticated-Gander — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$311

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.8%

Resolved

Trades

18,775

lifetime

Volume

$8.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$437

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-06 04:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% 67% +$311

Politics

36% 0% —

Crypto

18% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 143 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,085	$492.1K	463,738	443,399	+20,339	open	—	02-28 06:24
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1,279	$291.8K	268,742	300,487	-31,745	open	—	01-31 01:07
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	512	$265.6K	273,773	271,880	+1,893	open	—	02-25 10:48
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	280	$199.4K	154,990	147,153	+7,837	open	—	02-21 03:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	589	$189.9K	128,900	129,437	-537	open	—	01-31 11:42
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	370	$168.0K	174,771	154,694	+20,077	open	—	02-01 00:07
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	335	$164.8K	83,510	83,257	+253	open	—	02-21 02:42
will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	234	$154.5K	84,567	70,868	+13,699	open	—	01-31 10:43
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	195	$136.1K	83,516	91,075	-7,558	open	—	01-15 01:35
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	337	$129.7K	89,970	89,500	+470	open	—	02-13 16:26
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	428	$127.0K	141,487	137,723	+3,764	open	—	03-24 08:09
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	84	$119.4K	52,393	68,209	-15,816	open	—	02-10 03:36
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	172	$118.4K	85,602	74,353	+11,249	open	—	02-23 18:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	424	$118.0K	87,376	97,217	-9,841	open	—	02-27 12:12
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 440 459	176	$102.7K	50,601	52,428	-1,827	open	—	01-19 01:01
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	93	$92.3K	54,887	54,887	+0	open	—	02-12 01:40
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	104	$90.3K	57,656	53,104	+4,551	open	—	02-26 16:44
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 400 419	91	$89.9K	44,353	45,752	-1,398	open	—	01-01 23:05
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 420 439	519	$85.5K	37,210	48,535	-11,325	open	—	01-18 18:19
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	94	$84.4K	45,000	40,460	+4,540	open	—	01-08 01:01
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 80 99	74	$80.4K	38,506	42,000	-3,494	open	—	03-04 08:59
will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	92	$79.4K	39,939	39,939	+0	open	—	01-28 03:51
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	254	$78.8K	41,572	38,499	+3,074	open	—	01-31 04:16
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	407	$72.8K	87,226	96,840	-9,614	open	—	01-31 09:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	225	$69.3K	54,836	53,576	+1,261	open	—	02-12 02:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	453	$67.6K	68,199	57,104	+11,095	open	—	01-20 17:08
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 360 379	35	$66.2K	35,673	30,605	+5,068	open	—	01-10 06:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	80	$61.6K	88,316	77,055	+11,262	open	—	03-10 10:12
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 400 419	73	$60.7K	37,074	23,741	+13,333	open	—	01-18 00:52
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 460 479	149	$56.9K	43,636	13,406	+30,230	open	—	01-11 11:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 04:45:46	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xecde53…
05-05 05:23:46	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x47e0c2…
05-04 12:00:22	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xda7c4e…
05-04 11:55:50	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x3e1c01…
05-04 11:53:02	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	350	40¢	$140	0x82ae3e…
05-04 11:53:02	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	468	58¢	$271	0x3e36ff…
05-04 11:52:50	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	350	60¢	$210	0x67bbb1…
05-04 11:52:24	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	350	40¢	$140	0x8f7c13…
05-04 11:52:20	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x674e5b…
05-04 11:51:26	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	322	58¢	$187	0x7111ab…
05-04 04:18:02	Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	70	56¢	$39	0xc127db…
05-03 03:03:36	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x554e62…
05-02 03:18:48	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb9c647…
04-29 07:15:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x472ba2…
04-28 14:02:46	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	894	99¢	$886	0xc19858…
04-28 13:52:12	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	694	99¢	$687	0xa3ff84…
04-28 13:52:12	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5148ec…
04-28 13:38:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0x7e8af8…
04-28 13:37:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0xcacdec…
04-28 13:34:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	70¢	$3,500	0x241ebf…
04-28 13:33:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	70¢	$3,500	0x78d7c3…
04-28 13:25:46	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	480	83¢	$398	0x8465cf…
04-28 13:25:18	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	610	0¢	$3	0xf39cbc…
04-28 13:24:46	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	480	83¢	$398	0x410087…
04-28 13:24:22	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	610	0¢	$3	0xe4c127…
04-24 09:29:10	Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xbdd8d5…
04-22 16:03:44	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	42	58¢	$24	0x01273e…
04-22 16:03:34	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	83	58¢	$48	0xdde24a…
04-22 16:03:24	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	875	58¢	$508	0xa76b4a…
04-22 16:02:20	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 spread away 1pt5	Manchester City FC	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0x534839…
04-21 10:36:12	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	8¢	$28	0x059da1…
04-18 03:41:40	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6cae73…
04-13 17:01:35	btc updown 5m 1776099600	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x37ba02…
04-13 06:28:35	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	13¢	$18	0xbbb4fc…
04-12 18:03:49	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	204	13¢	$26	0x5a2bb6…
04-12 11:13:41	btc updown 5m 1775992200	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x32972a…
04-11 16:44:27	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xbaf435…
04-10 14:55:29	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	12¢	$7	0xf87379…
04-09 17:19:13	btc updown 5m 1775755200	Up	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x0388fd…
04-09 09:19:11	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0xc7685a…
04-09 08:39:43	Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0x2b5150…
04-07 05:57:15	btc updown 5m 1775541300	Up	SELL	67	24¢	$16	0xb60528…
04-07 05:56:43	btc updown 5m 1775541300	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x3bdacd…
04-06 15:04:51	btc updown 5m 1775487600	Down	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0xfee7dc…
04-05 05:53:17	btc updown 5m 1775368200	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0ce58a…
04-04 02:09:43	btc updown 5m 1775268300	Down	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0xd9a9d2…
03-25 13:51:53	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	SELL	1,245	50¢	$622	0x34c571…
03-25 13:50:23	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0xfe4566…
03-25 13:50:23	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	728	51¢	$371	0xa05703…
03-25 13:50:23	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x1eab6b…
03-25 13:50:21	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0xcbd580…
03-25 13:50:21	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	70	51¢	$36	0xb76224…
03-25 13:50:21	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x99b0a9…
03-25 13:50:21	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0x71c424…
03-25 13:50:19	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	160	51¢	$82	0xf703ff…
03-25 13:50:19	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	145	51¢	$74	0xc3bebf…
03-25 13:50:19	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	161	51¢	$82	0xc1d276…
03-25 13:50:19	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xbcbe82…
03-25 13:50:19	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	32	51¢	$16	0x50c3c3…
03-25 13:50:17	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 total 148pt5	Over	BUY	613	51¢	$313	0xc56a1c…
03-25 13:39:13	cbb ill hou 2026 03 26 spread home 3pt5	Houston Cougars	SELL	2,000	47¢	$940	0xcee375…
03-25 13:37:57	cbb ill hou 2026 03 26 spread home 3pt5	Houston Cougars	BUY	2,000	47¢	$940	0x25ecee…
03-25 12:48:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	21,090	10¢	$2,183	0x9baba9…
03-25 12:46:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	8,910	14¢	$1,247	0xc93147…
03-25 12:42:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	10,000	15¢	$1,500	0xdbc59b…
03-25 12:40:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	892	16¢	$143	0x9aa082…
03-25 12:40:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	7,425	16¢	$1,188	0x00a551…
03-25 12:40:11	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,684	16¢	$269	0x0d0531…
03-25 12:37:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	10,000	17¢	$1,700	0x6bba2c…
03-25 11:41:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x825679…
03-25 11:41:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xd8191e…
03-25 11:41:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x6e79af…
03-25 11:40:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xc01f53…
03-25 11:40:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xe5c6bf…
03-25 11:40:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	141	79¢	$111	0x56a825…
03-25 10:27:43	cbb ark arz 2026 03 26 spread home 8pt5	Arizona Wildcats	SELL	1,000	46¢	$460	0xa721e0…
03-25 10:24:45	cbb ark arz 2026 03 26 spread home 8pt5	Arizona Wildcats	BUY	1,000	47¢	$470	0xf713e7…
03-25 10:15:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	2,277	80¢	$1,822	0x8d2522…
03-25 10:15:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x294ce9…
03-25 10:15:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x8412f3…
03-25 10:15:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	2,331	79¢	$1,842	0xd4db90…
03-25 08:08:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	4,237	81¢	$3,432	0xedf7f9…
03-25 08:00:33	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	17	81¢	$14	0xefa8f5…
03-25 07:59:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	478	81¢	$387	0x3cb718…
03-25 07:59:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0xe88e02…
03-25 07:58:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x6cc290…
03-25 07:58:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	42	81¢	$34	0x6090ab…
03-25 07:55:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	115	81¢	$93	0x9c4266…
03-25 07:55:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	83	81¢	$67	0x6e30ed…
03-25 07:54:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	5,000	80¢	$4,000	0xfa56da…
03-24 08:09:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	3,926	78¢	$3,062	0x55dcbe…
03-24 06:51:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	46	79¢	$36	0x81faec…
03-24 06:50:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xd19662…
03-24 06:50:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x7b8059…
03-24 06:49:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	15	79¢	$11	0x77585c…
03-24 06:49:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	1,500	78¢	$1,170	0xe1e74e…
03-24 06:48:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xf68e85…
03-24 06:48:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x96dc6d…
03-24 06:47:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	138	78¢	$108	0x901ce3…
03-24 06:47:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0xfd4800…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	466	$42.2K	17,258	04-25 15:09
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	439	$102.8K	50,861	04-27 02:25
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	296	$22.4K	12,303	05-31 04:00
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	285	$7.16K	3,682	03-27 09:14
Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345	283	$33.5K	17,282	05-30 04:55
(anonymous) 0x90bb…531f	273	$3.92K	13,796	04-27 19:53
(anonymous) 0x6993…c79a	259	$890	3,359	02-15 11:10
Well-Documented-Hit 0x30ce…6b2b	253	$999.3K	70,161	03-29 18:59