Scared-Guideline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.0%

Resolved

Trades

343

lifetime

Volume

$8.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-01 12:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Sports

52% 20% $-0

Other

27% 0% $-1

Politics

10% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	14	$318	165	165	+0	No	$-0	02-24 01:11
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	12	$296	154	154	+0	open	—	02-09 23:38
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	13	$234	125	125	+0	open	—	02-16 16:04
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$225	119	119	+0	Yes	$-1	03-18 07:06
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$224	115	115	+0	open	—	03-22 04:44
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$214	110	110	+0	open	—	02-11 23:24
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	10	$213	113	113	+0	open	—	02-19 06:34
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$204	106	106	+0	open	—	03-07 22:10
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	8	$198	103	103	+0	open	—	02-11 23:20
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$179	92	92	-0	open	—	02-28 00:10
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	6	$171	89	89	+0	open	—	02-16 16:21
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$160	83	83	+0	open	—	02-28 00:06
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	7	$156	82	82	+0	open	—	02-11 22:56
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	6	$156	81	81	-0	open	—	01-30 19:25
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	7	$155	81	81	+0	open	—	03-20 15:39
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	4	$154	81	81	+0	open	—	03-20 23:03
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$146	77	77	+0	open	—	03-10 01:06
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$141	74	74	+0	open	—	02-09 23:26
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$136	71	71	+0	No	$-0	03-20 11:05
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	5	$134	68	68	-0	open	—	03-25 13:11
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	4	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	02-16 16:23
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	5	$122	63	63	+0	open	—	02-15 17:14
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	6	$121	64	64	+0	open	—	02-16 15:52
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$104	54	54	+0	open	—	02-16 16:19
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	6	$101	52	52	+0	open	—	02-15 17:22
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$101	53	53	+0	open	—	02-28 00:14
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$97	49	49	+0	open	—	01-05 20:58
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	5	$97	51	51	+0	open	—	02-15 17:37
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$96	51	51	+0	open	—	01-14 18:55
will germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	4	$96	49	49	+0	open	—	02-09 23:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 12:01:43	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x0c5355…
07-01 07:57:28	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x7c6f72…
05-18 11:28:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0xcbb51e…
05-18 05:25:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0x4d136f…
03-25 13:11:33	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x4c0c88…
03-25 06:04:31	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xa27bbf…
03-25 06:02:09	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x3ada01…
03-25 05:57:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x1afee0…
03-24 22:50:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x32798f…
03-24 22:36:07	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xada27a…
03-24 15:35:37	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x6cd6ea…
03-24 15:03:17	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xf0b4ab…
03-24 08:38:45	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xa499d0…
03-24 08:06:45	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x5d80a3…
03-24 07:04:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0xfeee69…
03-24 06:48:49	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0xdc2c8d…
03-24 02:33:47	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x8282ce…
03-23 19:53:05	will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	37	96¢	$36	0x9738ea…
03-23 14:55:03	will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x0bc744…
03-23 14:52:01	will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x12cff1…
03-23 14:21:19	will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xf36ada…
03-23 07:17:51	will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x234b50…
03-22 17:34:07	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0xbe5371…
03-22 10:27:13	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xf43cac…
03-22 04:44:11	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$35	0xbc25f8…
03-21 21:32:27	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$35	0x9e16ef…
03-21 13:53:45	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$33	0x15ea8f…
03-21 09:53:19	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0xb9e37e…
03-21 03:32:25	will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0xca8572…
03-20 23:21:33	will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x32ce76…
03-20 23:03:21	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	44	96¢	$43	0x1d1f36…
03-20 15:54:03	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	44	94¢	$42	0xc80876…
03-20 15:39:01	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0xee8f12…
03-20 12:01:13	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x29a748…
03-20 11:52:15	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x4a3bce…
03-20 11:51:45	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x7f457d…
03-20 11:34:31	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x28a888…
03-20 11:05:01	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x74114e…
03-20 05:03:19	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0x5c233f…
03-19 21:36:59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x834c07…
03-19 15:23:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xc63c69…
03-19 00:10:31	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x1d0cf8…
03-18 19:52:13	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x43a227…
03-18 19:39:49	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	37	93¢	$35	0xce2bb6…
03-18 14:29:25	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x757744…
03-18 07:06:49	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0xbfad0c…
03-17 23:49:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0xd05e22…
03-17 23:43:53	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x3f7f66…
03-17 12:03:03	will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0x693dc5…
03-17 06:55:23	will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	37	96¢	$35	0x1f7eb1…
03-16 16:59:25	will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0xb85bf5…
03-16 12:49:09	will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0xb5d885…
03-16 08:24:57	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	34	93¢	$32	0xb0f8c9…
03-16 04:19:59	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x82e459…
03-16 04:17:25	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0xf082e0…
03-15 22:14:41	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x10a971…
03-15 14:55:13	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0x125ffd…
03-15 14:36:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	36	95¢	$35	0x2e68d8…
03-15 10:22:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	36	95¢	$35	0xb0d005…
03-13 18:15:21	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0x82b0a2…
03-13 12:58:19	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	39	95¢	$38	0x5fd8b1…
03-13 07:18:09	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0xf03088…
03-12 23:27:25	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x956196…
03-12 11:46:57	2026 the players championship winner hideki matsuyama win	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x6ae041…
03-12 04:32:59	2026 the players championship winner hideki matsuyama win	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8c8fe6…
03-12 04:05:11	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x70e942…
03-11 22:00:53	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x1db90a…
03-10 01:06:25	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0xeb19ef…
03-09 20:04:03	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0xac0c52…
03-09 19:42:55	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0x8cc164…
03-09 12:21:51	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0x7a549a…
03-09 11:57:25	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	39	95¢	$37	0xd7cd9c…
03-09 06:27:35	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xe06110…
03-08 22:03:21	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x2601bb…
03-08 15:48:43	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x4992b9…
03-08 15:29:55	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0xec35ed…
03-08 11:18:23	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x489cc9…
03-08 03:11:45	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$39	0x9e07e8…
03-07 23:00:25	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$39	0x9fec0c…
03-07 22:10:53	Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$30	0x5a022c…
03-07 15:05:13	Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$30	0x65820f…
03-07 14:27:23	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	SELL	36	93¢	$33	0x3cc3ea…
03-07 08:07:45	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0x08cee8…
03-07 08:04:35	Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x97dc79…
03-07 03:50:15	Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0xb101a5…
03-07 03:16:55	Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x9041e2…
03-06 21:01:53	Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x8f15fb…
03-06 20:26:49	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	SELL	34	96¢	$32	0x5cf24b…
03-06 13:57:17	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x6cdb6f…
03-06 13:20:29	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0xd183d3…
03-05 23:38:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	39	94¢	$36	0xc523be…
03-05 18:33:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x1439ae…
03-02 07:37:49	will kansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x40f54c…
03-02 07:37:15	will kansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xb4d623…
02-28 00:14:17	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0x237a21…
02-28 00:13:45	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x1ad5b3…
02-28 00:10:59	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	45	96¢	$44	0xcd2720…
02-28 00:10:31	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	45	96¢	$44	0xf6377b…
02-28 00:06:21	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x50afb8…
02-28 00:05:51	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0xc5b36a…