Frilly-Tortoise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

1,128

Trades

21,916

lifetime

Volume

$64.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 07-17 21:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 75% +$64

Politics

11% — —

Other

7% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 585 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	30	$1.4K	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	06-21 16:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	24	$1.1K	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	06-23 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$864	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	06-13 13:48
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	31	$786	750	800	-50	open	—	06-26 17:44
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	16	$713	400	400	+0	open	—	06-17 03:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	12	$507	600	600	+0	open	—	06-22 20:17
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	17	$500	450	400	+50	open	—	06-15 15:48
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	24	$476	650	550	+100	open	—	06-15 15:56
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	12	$442	300	300	+0	open	—	06-15 15:20
iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	15	$324	361	361	+0	open	—	07-12 16:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$296	300	300	+0	open	—	06-13 13:21
us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	8	$275	200	200	+0	open	—	07-14 13:40
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	4	$265	150	150	+0	open	—	06-28 01:07
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	9	$240	200	250	-50	open	—	06-15 21:18
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	6	$228	220	220	+0	open	—	06-25 22:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	6	$220	298	298	+0	open	—	06-21 19:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	6	$210	320	120	+200	open	—	06-16 04:01
gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	4	$203	120	120	+0	open	—	06-28 12:33
will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	6	$201	108	108	+0	open	—	06-22 17:04
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622192122520	2	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 15:36
us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	4	$186	100	100	+0	open	—	06-15 13:59
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	2	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 16:39
gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	4	$182	120	120	+0	open	—	06-25 20:18
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	6	$180	150	150	+0	open	—	06-23 11:27
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	4	$178	100	100	+0	open	—	07-14 05:51
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	4	$172	100	100	+0	open	—	06-26 06:57
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	6	$164	150	150	+0	open	—	07-12 23:30
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	4	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	06-16 09:58
will two spacex starships dock together by december 31 2026	5	$158	150	100	+50	open	—	06-15 21:33
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	12	$149	360	360	+0	open	—	06-23 20:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 21:59:16	btc updown 15m 1784324700	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa3ea82…
07-17 19:29:33	btc updown 15m 1784315700	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x613ca8…
07-17 18:13:18	btc updown 15m 1784311200	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x616bab…
07-17 17:58:28	btc updown 15m 1784310300	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x187fac…
07-17 17:43:51	btc updown 15m 1784309400	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe58e1f…
07-17 16:44:07	btc updown 15m 1784305800	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x3e883f…
07-17 16:27:28	btc updown 15m 1784304900	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc880bc…
07-17 11:59:51	btc updown 15m 1784288700	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf77bb4…
07-17 10:57:04	btc updown 15m 1784285100	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x75d02d…
07-17 10:27:22	btc updown 15m 1784283300	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcb31ba…
07-17 09:27:58	btc updown 15m 1784279700	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x987da2…
07-17 07:57:04	btc updown 15m 1784274300	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7aa25c…
07-17 07:43:13	btc updown 15m 1784273400	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x259614…
07-17 02:57:07	btc updown 15m 1784256300	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3b2245…
07-14 14:08:25	will mookie betts hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820674	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x393f81…
07-14 13:40:10	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xeaaefe…
07-14 13:39:59	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x18f228…
07-14 11:26:58	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x98fa5f…
07-14 11:26:56	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xe889e0…
07-14 09:18:59	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x22301f…
07-14 09:18:56	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0xade907…
07-14 09:18:49	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x219f84…
07-14 09:18:46	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x64d058…
07-14 07:36:23	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xa99767…
07-14 07:36:11	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8ba9d9…
07-14 06:56:44	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x8aaf71…
07-14 06:56:32	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xcfa07a…
07-14 05:51:05	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	SELL	50	77¢	$39	0x2d91c8…
07-14 05:50:55	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x8bd6be…
07-14 05:02:37	will mookie betts hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820674	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc29988…
07-14 00:17:14	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 ugo coussaud	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x8b6619…
07-14 00:17:05	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 ugo coussaud	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x169e47…
07-14 00:10:01	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 pontus nyholm	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xd469c1…
07-14 00:09:49	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 pontus nyholm	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xfc38ef…
07-13 23:47:52	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 danny walker	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x449b3c…
07-13 23:47:41	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 danny walker	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x7b6487…
07-13 23:09:41	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 stephan jaeger	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x6ad690…
07-13 23:09:28	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 stephan jaeger	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x874795…
07-13 21:39:07	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xe1a44a…
07-13 21:38:59	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xc2c1b3…
07-13 15:42:44	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x522ccf…
07-13 15:42:32	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x85d620…
07-13 14:33:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xcdfe2e…
07-13 14:33:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9d2059…
07-13 14:30:29	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xbd27f2…
07-13 14:30:20	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x30d392…
07-13 14:03:59	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0x0bbfda…
07-13 14:03:47	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xdf65d5…
07-13 14:00:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xab868b…
07-13 14:00:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xe94faf…
07-13 12:41:53	bitcoin above 64k on july 13 2026	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x8a6bc5…
07-13 12:41:40	bitcoin above 64k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x168617…
07-13 08:17:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x93339c…
07-13 08:17:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xe95ae3…
07-12 23:43:07	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0xfe5c5d…
07-12 23:42:55	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xcc13f9…
07-12 23:30:01	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xee1eff…
07-12 23:29:50	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x68d33c…
07-12 17:52:34	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x971bd1…
07-12 17:52:25	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xe31925…
07-12 16:40:37	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	99	1¢	$1	0x893c77…
07-12 16:37:43	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	49	1¢	$0	0x67031e…
07-12 16:26:37	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x443855…
07-12 10:30:58	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$18	0xb2864a…
07-12 10:30:43	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xaac5de…
07-12 06:30:49	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xb85a72…
07-12 06:30:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xa97e88…
07-12 06:15:59	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x5026ec…
07-12 06:15:44	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x19e55e…
07-12 05:58:04	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x7732bf…
07-12 05:57:47	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xd2bbfe…
07-12 04:15:04	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x9b6b17…
07-12 04:14:52	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xee469f…
07-12 02:38:35	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x0d0715…
07-12 02:38:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd5e8a4…
07-11 22:19:05	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x8d6d4b…
07-11 22:18:53	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x2b4ca1…
07-11 22:12:08	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x07f12c…
07-11 22:11:58	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x00a76e…
07-11 21:12:55	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x678848…
07-11 21:12:53	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x50126d…
07-11 20:05:50	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x2d4fcb…
07-11 20:05:34	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x32be90…
07-11 10:23:52	btc updown 5m 1783765200	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x50cf3e…
07-11 10:17:35	btc updown 5m 1783764900	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x854727…
07-11 10:09:43	btc updown 5m 1783764300	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbf44b0…
07-11 09:48:08	btc updown 5m 1783763100	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x388fe3…
07-11 09:42:07	btc updown 5m 1783762800	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe7b923…
07-11 09:41:08	btc updown 5m 1783762800	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x16a024…
07-11 09:31:49	btc updown 5m 1783762200	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x55d3a0…
07-11 09:24:29	btc updown 5m 1783761600	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa21de4…
07-11 09:19:07	btc updown 5m 1783761300	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x529bf7…
07-11 09:04:56	btc updown 5m 1783760400	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4ebfb8…
07-11 09:04:40	btc updown 5m 1783760400	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf15ffc…
07-11 06:34:37	btc updown 5m 1783751400	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2c327c…
07-11 06:32:11	bitcoin up or down july 11 2026 2am et	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xeb05eb…
07-11 06:29:23	btc updown 5m 1783751100	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9ee950…
07-11 06:29:13	bitcoin up or down july 11 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9507f1…
07-11 06:26:47	btc updown 5m 1783751100	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x4bb1a8…
07-11 06:25:17	bitcoin up or down july 11 2026 2am et	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x9f689e…