Frilly-Tortoise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

1,128

Trades

21,986

lifetime

Volume

$64.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 08-03 04:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 75% +$64

Politics

11% — —

Other

7% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 585 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	30	$1.4K	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	06-21 16:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	24	$1.1K	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	06-23 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$864	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	06-13 13:48
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	31	$786	750	800	-50	open	—	06-26 17:44
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	16	$713	400	400	+0	open	—	06-17 03:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	12	$507	600	600	+0	open	—	06-22 20:17
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	17	$500	450	400	+50	open	—	06-15 15:48
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	24	$476	650	550	+100	open	—	06-15 15:56
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	12	$442	300	300	+0	open	—	06-15 15:20
iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	15	$324	361	361	+0	open	—	07-12 16:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$296	300	300	+0	open	—	06-13 13:21
us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	8	$275	200	200	+0	open	—	07-14 13:40
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	4	$265	150	150	+0	open	—	06-28 01:07
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	9	$240	200	250	-50	open	—	06-15 21:18
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	6	$228	220	220	+0	open	—	06-25 22:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	6	$220	298	298	+0	open	—	06-21 19:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	6	$210	320	120	+200	open	—	06-16 04:01
gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	4	$203	120	120	+0	open	—	06-28 12:33
will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	6	$201	108	108	+0	open	—	06-22 17:04
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622192122520	2	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 15:36
us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	4	$186	100	100	+0	open	—	06-15 13:59
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	2	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 16:39
gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	4	$182	120	120	+0	open	—	06-25 20:18
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	6	$180	150	150	+0	open	—	06-23 11:27
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	4	$178	100	100	+0	open	—	07-14 05:51
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	4	$172	100	100	+0	open	—	06-26 06:57
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	6	$164	150	150	+0	open	—	07-12 23:30
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	4	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	06-16 09:58
will two spacex starships dock together by december 31 2026	5	$158	150	100	+50	open	—	06-15 21:33
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	12	$149	360	360	+0	open	—	06-23 20:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 04:58:32	btc updown 5m 1785732900	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5377a9…
08-02 16:32:21	btc updown 5m 1785688200	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd4a6bd…
08-02 16:29:38	btc updown 5m 1785687900	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x88f23c…
08-02 15:37:54	btc updown 5m 1785684900	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xfcdd6a…
08-02 15:27:59	btc updown 5m 1785684300	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xaeba11…
08-02 15:03:06	btc updown 5m 1785682800	Up	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0xac6c61…
08-02 15:02:26	btc updown 5m 1785682800	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf0dfe2…
08-02 15:01:59	btc updown 5m 1785682800	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x55f54a…
08-02 15:01:47	btc updown 5m 1785682800	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x18c3bd…
08-02 14:59:27	btc updown 5m 1785682500	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xa45313…
08-02 14:58:53	btc updown 5m 1785682500	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdcf7d2…
08-02 14:16:18	btc updown 5m 1785680100	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xf31cf8…
08-02 14:08:53	btc updown 5m 1785679500	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x4dfb7a…
08-02 14:06:29	btc updown 5m 1785679500	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x542264…
08-02 13:49:00	btc updown 5m 1785678300	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x281292…
08-02 13:48:14	btc updown 5m 1785678300	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1de2d7…
08-02 13:46:06	btc updown 5m 1785678300	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x155d7e…
08-02 13:45:47	btc updown 5m 1785678300	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe5193d…
08-02 13:31:00	btc updown 5m 1785677400	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x0813ea…
08-02 13:30:50	btc updown 5m 1785677400	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc9c048…
08-02 13:29:11	btc updown 5m 1785677100	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb84f8a…
08-02 12:49:09	btc updown 5m 1785674700	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9c896f…
08-02 12:12:56	btc updown 5m 1785672600	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x3cea4e…
08-02 12:12:47	btc updown 5m 1785672600	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x220a22…
08-02 12:09:15	btc updown 5m 1785672300	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x9cf753…
08-02 12:08:14	btc updown 5m 1785672300	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2f28bc…
08-02 11:37:03	btc updown 5m 1785670500	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xd80369…
08-02 11:35:57	btc updown 5m 1785670500	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc45515…
08-02 10:36:21	btc updown 5m 1785666900	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x04cbf5…
08-02 09:41:42	btc updown 15m 1785663000	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x02f35a…
08-02 09:29:23	btc updown 5m 1785662700	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9fddda…
08-02 09:24:51	btc updown 5m 1785662400	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5dcad1…
08-02 09:14:06	btc updown 5m 1785661800	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0xc9d66a…
08-02 09:12:44	btc updown 5m 1785661800	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7c6c57…
08-02 09:08:26	btc updown 5m 1785661500	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb3db11…
08-01 19:48:20	btc updown 5m 1785613500	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x539f7e…
08-01 18:16:41	btc updown 5m 1785608100	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x478066…
08-01 15:36:39	btc updown 5m 1785598500	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa153d2…
08-01 15:28:47	btc updown 5m 1785597900	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xaef209…
07-31 17:44:39	btc updown 5m 1785519600	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb289d8…
07-31 08:55:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x0f8662…
07-31 05:12:03	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3a1908…
07-31 04:22:41	btc updown 5m 1785471600	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xde0080…
07-30 12:22:09	btc updown 5m 1785414000	Up	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x7f8c80…
07-30 12:20:51	btc updown 5m 1785414000	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6ac627…
07-29 16:27:51	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xace617…
07-29 16:27:05	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x383b9f…
07-26 12:58:04	lol al blg 2026 07 26 game2	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x8082b1…
07-26 12:51:27	lol al blg 2026 07 26 game2	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xe7f483…
07-26 12:01:04	lol al blg 2026 07 26 game1	Anyone's Legend	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xc74607…
07-26 11:38:27	lol al blg 2026 07 26 game1	Anyone's Legend	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc415d7…
07-26 11:38:24	lol al blg 2026 07 26 game1	Anyone's Legend	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0xf02101…
07-25 14:38:30	lol tes tt 2026 07 25	ThunderTalk Gaming	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xc235cf…
07-25 14:34:19	lol tes tt 2026 07 25	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x9363d3…
07-25 13:37:18	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game2	Top Esports	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x1d1bf9…
07-25 13:33:27	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game2	Top Esports	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x379dee…
07-25 13:28:37	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game2	Top Esports	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4a71c5…
07-25 12:52:57	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game1	Top Esports	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xe39b21…
07-25 12:50:03	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game1	Top Esports	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xde9dc8…
07-25 12:49:04	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game1	Top Esports	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xd85395…
07-25 12:21:15	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game1	Top Esports	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x785d9c…
07-25 12:20:46	lol tes tt 2026 07 25 game1	Top Esports	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x22a91d…
07-25 10:46:52	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game2	Invictus Gaming	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xe32c02…
07-25 10:44:52	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game2	Invictus Gaming	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x25faac…
07-25 10:27:54	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game2	Invictus Gaming	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x8c951e…
07-25 09:48:09	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game1	Weibo Gaming	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb43443…
07-25 09:41:24	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game1	Weibo Gaming	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xbb3dcf…
07-25 09:37:13	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game1	Invictus Gaming	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x93c1a3…
07-25 09:32:36	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game1	Invictus Gaming	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3e6634…
07-25 09:29:21	lol ig1 wb 2026 07 25 game1	Invictus Gaming	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x930c36…
07-17 21:59:16	btc updown 15m 1784324700	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa3ea82…
07-17 19:29:33	btc updown 15m 1784315700	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x613ca8…
07-17 18:13:18	btc updown 15m 1784311200	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x616bab…
07-17 17:58:28	btc updown 15m 1784310300	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x187fac…
07-17 17:43:51	btc updown 15m 1784309400	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe58e1f…
07-17 16:44:07	btc updown 15m 1784305800	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x3e883f…
07-17 16:27:28	btc updown 15m 1784304900	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc880bc…
07-17 11:59:51	btc updown 15m 1784288700	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf77bb4…
07-17 10:57:04	btc updown 15m 1784285100	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x75d02d…
07-17 10:27:22	btc updown 15m 1784283300	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcb31ba…
07-17 09:27:58	btc updown 15m 1784279700	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x987da2…
07-17 07:57:04	btc updown 15m 1784274300	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7aa25c…
07-17 07:43:13	btc updown 15m 1784273400	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x259614…
07-17 02:57:07	btc updown 15m 1784256300	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3b2245…
07-14 14:08:25	will mookie betts hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820674	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x393f81…
07-14 13:40:10	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xeaaefe…
07-14 13:39:59	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x18f228…
07-14 11:26:58	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x98fa5f…
07-14 11:26:56	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xe889e0…
07-14 09:18:59	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x22301f…
07-14 09:18:56	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0xade907…
07-14 09:18:49	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x219f84…
07-14 09:18:46	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x64d058…
07-14 07:36:23	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xa99767…
07-14 07:36:11	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8ba9d9…
07-14 06:56:44	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x8aaf71…
07-14 06:56:32	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xcfa07a…
07-14 05:51:05	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	SELL	50	77¢	$39	0x2d91c8…
07-14 05:50:55	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x8bd6be…
07-14 05:02:37	will mookie betts hit a home run at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714021820674	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc29988…