Frilly-Tortoise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

1,128

Trades

21,809

lifetime

Volume

$62.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-17

last 06-28 13:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 75% +$64

Politics

11% — —

Tech

7% — —

Other

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 585 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Myke Towers perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes		-50	$6	3¢	$-2	$-8	05-29 05:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	30	$1.4K	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	06-21 16:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	24	$1.1K	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	06-23 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$864	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	06-13 13:48
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	31	$786	750	800	-50	open	—	06-26 17:44
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	16	$713	400	400	+0	open	—	06-17 03:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	12	$507	600	600	+0	open	—	06-22 20:17
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	17	$500	450	400	+50	open	—	06-15 15:48
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	24	$476	650	550	+100	open	—	06-15 15:56
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	12	$442	300	300	+0	open	—	06-15 15:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$296	300	300	+0	open	—	06-13 13:21
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	4	$265	150	150	+0	open	—	06-28 01:07
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	9	$240	200	250	-50	open	—	06-15 21:18
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	6	$228	220	220	+0	open	—	06-25 22:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	6	$220	298	298	+0	open	—	06-21 19:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	6	$210	320	120	+200	open	—	06-16 04:01
gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	4	$203	120	120	+0	open	—	06-28 12:33
will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	6	$201	108	108	+0	open	—	06-22 17:04
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622192122520	2	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 15:36
us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	4	$186	100	100	+0	open	—	06-15 13:59
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	2	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	06-27 16:39
gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	4	$182	120	120	+0	open	—	06-25 20:18
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	6	$180	150	150	+0	open	—	06-23 11:27
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	4	$172	100	100	+0	open	—	06-26 06:57
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	4	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	06-16 09:58
will two spacex starships dock together by december 31 2026	5	$158	150	100	+50	open	—	06-15 21:33
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	12	$149	360	360	+0	open	—	06-23 20:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	7	$148	150	100	+50	open	—	06-05 15:46
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	6	$143	150	150	+0	open	—	06-25 09:39
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	4	$136	100	100	+0	open	—	06-17 00:46
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	2	$129	100	100	+0	open	—	06-26 00:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 13:40:25	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xc055ee…
06-28 13:40:11	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x9727a9…
06-28 12:33:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x8202bf…
06-28 12:33:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x6bd021…
06-28 12:10:58	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x6f852a…
06-28 12:10:46	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 23 29	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xc5d2e1…
06-28 11:21:16	will trump speak to maria corina machado in july 20260626154217430	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x1e436e…
06-28 11:21:01	will trump speak to maria corina machado in july 20260626154217430	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xaa4c01…
06-28 08:33:46	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xf4b260…
06-28 08:33:32	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa0dd0c…
06-28 04:01:23	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x0eba78…
06-28 04:01:11	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x47e51d…
06-28 01:23:34	xi meets with lee jae myung by july 31 20260626183415029	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x8550ee…
06-28 01:23:23	xi meets with lee jae myung by july 31 20260626183415029	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x264ec6…
06-28 01:07:31	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x3bbbfe…
06-28 01:07:17	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x4dcbb4…
06-28 00:01:37	will trump be said 10 times during the next episode of the storytime with the second lady podcast 20260625203401067	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x387418…
06-28 00:00:46	will trump be said 10 times during the next episode of the storytime with the second lady podcast 20260625203401067	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x4dcaaa…
06-27 21:07:08	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x8d23b0…
06-27 21:07:05	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x1801bd…
06-27 17:20:22	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0xa12547…
06-27 17:20:20	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x8e6bae…
06-27 16:39:55	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xe4a8d8…
06-27 16:39:50	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x97fffe…
06-27 15:36:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622192122520	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x2ffd4d…
06-27 15:35:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622192122520	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xdcf29c…
06-27 15:10:07	will trump meet with keir starmer in july 2026 20260626153701910	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x44c454…
06-27 15:09:55	will trump meet with keir starmer in july 2026 20260626153701910	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xd0e742…
06-27 11:56:44	uptspt x russia nuclear deal by july 31 20260626165517058	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x95c92d…
06-27 11:56:41	uptspt x russia nuclear deal by july 31 20260626165517058	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xef21a9…
06-27 10:18:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xef39cf…
06-27 10:17:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xda5bd7…
06-27 09:14:53	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in july 20260626154217434	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd1695e…
06-27 09:14:43	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in july 20260626154217434	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x8aae65…
06-27 08:26:43	french election called by july 31 2026 20260626154415138	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x2216b7…
06-27 08:26:29	french election called by july 31 2026 20260626154415138	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x986849…
06-27 08:04:44	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x66e705…
06-27 08:04:34	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x9f1fff…
06-27 07:00:11	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x47a2e7…
06-27 06:59:32	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xcc2faa…
06-27 06:49:07	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x3b0638…
06-27 06:48:55	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc7abcd…
06-27 06:07:16	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x35fbbd…
06-27 06:07:07	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xab0962…
06-27 04:01:11	meloni out as prime minister of italy by july 31 20260626161642636	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x9dc187…
06-27 04:00:58	meloni out as prime minister of italy by july 31 20260626161642636	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x8aabfd…
06-27 02:04:37	will smith college exclude trans women in 2026 20260626143843566	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x1e6567…
06-27 02:04:25	will smith college exclude trans women in 2026 20260626143843566	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x59989c…
06-27 00:34:55	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x7d349d…
06-27 00:34:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x2b00c5…
06-26 23:26:58	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x04d143…
06-26 23:26:47	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa970ab…
06-26 23:15:35	will marco rubio attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044255	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xf00789…
06-26 23:15:23	will marco rubio attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044255	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa3a1ef…
06-26 22:06:13	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x0d6722…
06-26 22:06:10	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x151af0…
06-26 21:14:55	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x434784…
06-26 21:14:20	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x388162…
06-26 21:09:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x4a4931…
06-26 21:08:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x9f56b9…
06-26 21:03:22	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xe4bae9…
06-26 21:03:10	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x49205a…
06-26 18:06:53	will russia enter krasnoiarske by september 30	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x6b5369…
06-26 18:06:41	will russia enter krasnoiarske by september 30	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xd03e84…
06-26 17:44:28	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x945ed2…
06-26 17:44:16	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x52d7d0…
06-26 17:35:11	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044260	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xab5bc8…
06-26 17:34:58	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044260	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb3391b…
06-26 17:33:50	will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044258	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x2768cf…
06-26 17:33:35	will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044258	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xeda764…
06-26 17:12:23	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044256	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x70afd3…
06-26 17:12:13	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044256	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xbf54d8…
06-26 14:06:51	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xc36e4c…
06-26 14:06:49	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xd7eada…
06-26 13:57:13	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x9d2cac…
06-26 13:57:00	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xce3e15…
06-26 13:55:21	will ryan lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213346487	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x14a249…
06-26 13:55:18	will william hakansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260625172638494	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x0fe23a…
06-26 13:55:15	will alexander command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213347243	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x89b369…
06-26 13:36:09	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x025f86…
06-26 13:36:07	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x44384e…
06-26 13:33:54	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xa34882…
06-26 13:33:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x645070…
06-26 13:22:46	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xdf1197…
06-26 13:22:34	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x7aedd3…
06-26 13:22:33	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xbef369…
06-26 11:49:43	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x0fca8a…
06-26 11:49:29	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x8a8546…
06-26 11:01:28	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x818abd…
06-26 11:01:16	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x4f247c…
06-26 10:31:31	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x289145…
06-26 10:31:16	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xe6c576…
06-26 10:07:02	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x18eab8…
06-26 10:06:49	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x97a776…
06-26 10:06:13	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x2cb171…
06-26 10:06:01	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x7a2acb…
06-26 10:03:38	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xb5e770…
06-26 10:03:26	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xdaf551…
06-26 10:01:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xf18ce3…
06-26 10:00:59	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xd94e1f…