Frightened-Biscuit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$130

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

34.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$208

Open exposure

$197

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-03 20:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

65% — —

Other

26% 100% +$60

Sports

8% 0% $-190

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No		-258	$-193	76¢	$-197	$-4	07-03 20:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	3	$714	480	480	+0	open	—	04-03 21:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$590	322	322	+0	open	—	03-02 13:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$347	197	197	+0	open	—	04-27 21:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	1	$193	0	258	-258	open	—	07-03 20:10
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$190	235	0	+235	Sean Strickland	$-190	05-10 01:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$153	194	0	+194	open	—	04-07 18:21
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	1	$100	160	0	+160	Yes	+$60	04-07 18:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 20:10:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	258	75¢	$193	0x6aa7ae…
05-10 01:04:04	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	235	81¢	$190	0xa116ce…
04-27 21:54:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	197	100¢	$197	0xa7d24b…
04-07 18:21:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	194	79¢	$153	0xb177df…
04-07 18:16:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	197	76¢	$150	0x164459…
04-07 18:15:15	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	63¢	$100	0x1bdecd…
04-03 21:09:17	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	480	84¢	$403	0x7f0954…
03-18 21:03:07	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	167	66¢	$111	0x098be4…
03-15 14:48:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0xdd7626…
03-02 13:19:53	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	322	97¢	$311	0xf88f21…
01-12 02:19:48	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	322	87¢	$280	0xb51261…