Taut-Weather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

215

Trades

259

lifetime

Volume

$539

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 07-25 09:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 67% -$13

Sports

4% 50% +$3

Politics

2% 33% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$17	38	0	+38	Up	-$17	06-01 16:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	3	$15	14	4	+10	Down	+$1	06-01 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	3	$14	13	3	+10	Down	+$1	06-01 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$12	18	0	+18	Up	+$6	06-01 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	1	$10	12	0	+12	Up	+$2	06-01 16:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	Up	+$3	06-01 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$9	13	0	+13	Up	-$9	06-01 17:48
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:15 UTC	2	$8	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	07-13 16:19
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$7	6	6	+0	Yes	+$4	07-07 22:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	4	$7	5	4	+0	Up	-$1	06-02 04:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	06-01 15:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 08:45 UTC	1	$6	80	0	+80	Down	-$6	02-24 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	06-01 17:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	06-01 15:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	06-01 15:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:25 UTC	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	-$5	06-06 10:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 07:45 UTC	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	02-24 07:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:40 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	07-09 07:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	06-01 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	06-01 10:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:00 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	07-09 08:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:00 UTC	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$3	07-13 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	06-02 04:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	06-06 09:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:10 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	06-06 10:14
nba uta hou 2026 02 23	2	$4	2	2	+0	Rockets	+$0	02-24 06:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:15 UTC	2	$4	5	5	+0	Up	-$2	07-09 21:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 19:05 UTC	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	06-18 19:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	06-01 14:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	06-01 10:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 09:59:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfe67dc…
07-25 09:53:57	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x744e8f…
07-25 09:48:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdbd413…
07-24 20:44:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x78e7a6…
07-18 04:49:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3906e6…
07-15 16:31:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xda3436…
07-15 16:15:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x817c12…
07-13 16:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xcb0584…
07-13 16:48:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xea2928…
07-13 16:38:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xf798c4…
07-13 16:33:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x4535af…
07-13 16:29:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xca5d0e…
07-13 16:29:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:25 UTC	Down	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x838a57…
07-13 16:28:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5da36d…
07-13 16:23:52	XRP Up or Down - July 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x11da28…
07-13 16:19:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa80f67…
07-13 16:18:41	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x14059e…
07-13 16:15:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:10 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa31a1b…
07-13 16:14:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x56b029…
07-13 16:04:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:00 UTC	Down	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xa1c116…
07-13 16:04:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1c81ce…
07-13 15:51:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc90962…
07-13 15:51:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x752bc9…
07-11 11:16:56	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x9ea95d…
07-11 11:08:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x12d948…
07-11 11:02:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x541766…
07-11 10:58:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf8102f…
07-11 10:51:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 10:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xf9ad50…
07-10 17:54:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x0ff4d2…
07-10 17:49:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9695ed…
07-10 17:48:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x2a3a25…
07-10 17:48:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcc2f4a…
07-10 17:44:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xad173b…
07-10 17:38:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xece51b…
07-10 13:34:28	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x7db955…
07-10 12:23:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x0bb55b…
07-09 22:39:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x97138a…
07-09 21:18:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x377170…
07-09 21:16:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x07251a…
07-09 21:13:13	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x5e2571…
07-09 21:12:25	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x049eac…
07-09 21:12:07	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xe45a59…
07-09 21:10:46	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xbc62e3…
07-09 21:08:50	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x320145…
07-09 21:02:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x356676…
07-09 21:02:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2b5dd9…
07-09 21:01:34	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbcd6c2…
07-09 20:55:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 20:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x364af5…
07-09 08:14:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xac19d9…
07-09 08:13:58	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xc0c3aa…
07-09 08:13:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xb3353c…
07-09 08:07:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc689ed…
07-09 08:07:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xec335b…
07-09 08:05:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x0dea54…
07-09 08:03:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x0c63f0…
07-09 08:02:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xa433a2…
07-09 07:56:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xf6a003…
07-09 07:52:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x4474dc…
07-09 07:47:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x4f76da…
07-09 07:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:40 UTC	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x4f6a5f…
07-09 07:42:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf07f1c…
07-09 07:37:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x03a927…
07-09 07:32:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xd6b2e1…
07-08 17:38:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc56060…
07-08 17:31:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xeeff0f…
07-08 17:27:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x89980d…
07-08 17:20:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xadc2a1…
07-08 16:21:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd0d983…
07-08 16:16:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x390a6e…
07-08 16:10:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x282442…
07-08 16:02:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x8be1f2…
07-08 15:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x915713…
07-08 15:52:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x93cd94…
07-08 15:46:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x825ba1…
07-08 15:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd9c3d1…
07-08 13:53:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x44723f…
07-08 13:46:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xa5a8b3…
07-08 13:43:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf56ea4…
07-08 13:35:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe08526…
07-08 13:27:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6a1216…
07-08 13:20:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x09edc1…
07-08 13:16:20	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe02807…
07-08 13:15:32	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x81180c…
07-08 13:14:25	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xdd82d1…
07-07 22:03:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0xccfe49…
07-06 21:39:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x5ba8ff…
06-18 19:12:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x4b93e1…
06-18 19:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 19:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4a5299…
06-18 19:07:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x22ea96…
06-18 19:00:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa5ebfa…
06-18 18:46:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x2a0f60…
06-18 18:23:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xfb575d…
06-07 14:08:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x319146…
06-07 13:56:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-07 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xef89e9…
06-07 08:42:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xccec56…
06-06 20:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x7ce317…
06-06 10:28:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x6d8106…
06-06 10:20:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x328a12…
06-06 10:17:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x5186f7…
06-06 10:14:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 10:10 UTC	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xda988e…