Tough-Stool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

Trades

221

lifetime

Volume

$421

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-15 07:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 53% +$1

Other

18% 100% +$1

Politics

15% 0% $-0

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	27	$66	83	83	+0	open	—	05-20 08:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	11	$33	33	26	+7	open	—	05-20 10:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$19	719	719	+0	open	—	04-29 05:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	3	$14	41	21	+20	open	—	05-03 06:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	05-06 11:45
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 18?	4	$11	17	17	+0	open	—	05-18 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	2	$10	30	0	+30	open	—	04-30 03:17
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	10	$10	30	30	+0	open	—	05-27 03:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	3	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	05-21 12:54
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	7	$9	54	54	+0	open	—	05-29 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	5	$8	11	11	+0	open	—	05-19 06:43
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	5	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	05-29 07:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	6	$8	128	128	+0	open	—	05-09 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	4	$7	9	9	+0	open	—	05-18 03:37
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	7	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-30 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	3	$6	25	2	+22	Up	$-2	05-08 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	3	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 08:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	3	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	05-16 09:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	3	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	05-29 05:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	6	$6	115	115	+0	open	—	05-10 02:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-29 05:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-06 02:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-29 06:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-03 07:27
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	3	$5	3	3	+0	TheMongolz	+$1	05-09 09:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-18 02:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	05-19 07:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	2	$4	9	0	+9	Down	$-0	05-07 11:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	06-01 03:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-20 03:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 07:46:49	eth updown 15m 1781509500	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x7839b7…
06-01 08:29:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xf99df1…
06-01 06:35:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x550534…
06-01 06:13:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xdc50b2…
06-01 06:05:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x20d074…
06-01 03:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xadd9e5…
06-01 03:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x96d385…
06-01 03:14:33	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x2fa997…
06-01 03:10:42	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x2c32f3…
06-01 03:04:59	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xacc2c4…
06-01 02:56:35	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xafeb34…
05-29 07:17:43	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0xc599a5…
05-29 07:10:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfc06e0…
05-29 07:10:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xba19a4…
05-29 07:10:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9be077…
05-29 07:10:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x095901…
05-29 05:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x300dc6…
05-29 05:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xdcceb8…
05-29 05:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x55132f…
05-29 05:49:31	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x6c2fe1…
05-29 05:49:28	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x765afe…
05-29 05:44:04	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x353800…
05-29 05:42:45	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x073cf9…
05-29 05:41:35	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc6cc3e…
05-29 05:37:37	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb9bc24…
05-29 05:33:45	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x11c507…
05-27 03:28:46	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xde90d0…
05-27 03:28:32	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe89ac3…
05-27 03:28:30	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x9e5084…
05-27 03:25:40	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xadbe64…
05-27 03:24:16	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x0a3c51…
05-27 03:22:15	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x909314…
05-27 03:22:14	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x1271e1…
05-27 03:21:32	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xea1e34…
05-27 03:20:06	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xd142b0…
05-27 03:19:59	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb18219…
05-25 08:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x903a59…
05-25 08:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x7df99c…
05-25 08:04:27	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x2f120b…
05-25 08:04:22	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x598640…
05-25 07:51:55	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb8d9f3…
05-25 07:49:26	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb13576…
05-25 07:45:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1aea3d…
05-25 07:02:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x121fed…
05-22 07:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xe71253…
05-21 12:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0xbd90f2…
05-21 12:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x214396…
05-21 12:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd3ea9e…
05-21 12:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xc9920f…
05-20 10:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xdeb037…
05-20 09:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x139cd3…
05-20 09:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x68bef4…
05-20 09:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xd9164c…
05-20 09:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x736128…
05-20 09:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0xd83893…
05-20 09:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xb15f32…
05-20 09:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf0f4f5…
05-20 08:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xec7111…
05-20 08:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xfbd69e…
05-20 08:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x542e91…
05-20 08:38:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0xcfb6ed…
05-20 08:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0xc54225…
05-20 08:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xdae19b…
05-20 08:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x53a37f…
05-20 08:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	15	23¢	$4	0x7bc07c…
05-20 08:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x03e3c1…
05-20 08:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x481198…
05-20 08:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xf17a26…
05-20 08:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xa825d6…
05-20 08:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x35f790…
05-20 08:11:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x57be75…
05-20 08:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x7f7081…
05-20 08:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x95bcb0…
05-20 08:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x0f81ac…
05-20 08:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0x37f396…
05-20 08:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x191a68…
05-20 08:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe954f6…
05-20 08:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0xc23a9b…
05-20 08:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x97de13…
05-20 08:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x2d9e4d…
05-20 08:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	12	47¢	$5	0x324032…
05-20 07:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x300fa5…
05-20 07:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xf703d6…
05-20 07:57:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe3b3b7…
05-20 07:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xe89678…
05-20 07:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xe05496…
05-20 07:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x42b25b…
05-20 04:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6155e6…
05-20 03:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x66c1f7…
05-20 03:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xc38edf…
05-19 07:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x13bcaa…
05-19 07:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xe57cda…
05-19 07:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x80c75f…
05-19 07:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x8fe1a4…
05-19 06:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xb9551e…
05-19 06:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x7886bc…
05-19 06:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xdd23b3…
05-19 06:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x1e1589…
05-19 06:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc0bf6a…
05-19 05:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xa29d6d…