Hefty-Brain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$182

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-02 01:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

48% 0% $-3

Other

33% 0% $-5

Politics

15% 100% +$23

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	3	$29	21	21	+0	open	—	05-20 00:25
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	3	$23	148	0	+148	open	—	05-20 00:26
btc updown 5m 1772877900	5	$16	18	10	+9	open	—	03-07 10:09
btc updown 5m 1772880000	3	$11	12	5	+6	open	—	03-07 10:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$7	33	33	+0	open	—	05-06 19:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$6	5	3	+3	open	—	06-19 06:15
btc updown 5m 1772879700	2	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	03-07 10:36
btc updown 5m 1772874900	2	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	03-07 09:17
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	03-07 08:53
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$3	27	0	+27	open	—	01-06 02:52
gpt ads by march 31 269 364 978	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	01-16 20:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	03-14 06:16
btc updown 5m 1772880900	1	$2	22	0	+22	open	—	03-07 10:58
us strike on somalia by january 31	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-06 02:59
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	01-06 02:54
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	1	$2	118	0	+118	Down	$-2	05-06 19:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 4 2026?	1	$2	15	0	+15	No	$-2	05-06 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	1	$2	12	0	+12	Down	$-2	05-12 01:27
will micron q3 dram revenue be above 30b	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	06-19 05:53
btc updown 5m 1772874000	2	$2	14	0	+14	open	—	03-07 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	2	$2	4	0	+4	Down	$-0	05-12 01:27
btc updown 5m 1772873400	2	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	03-07 08:54
btc updown 5m 1772879100	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-07 10:26
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-13 19:10
btc updown 5m 1772877000	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-07 09:50
will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	06-20 02:59
btc updown 5m 1772876400	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-07 09:41
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	1	$1	0	47	-47	open	—	06-09 08:24
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	2	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	06-20 02:56
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	1	$1	200	0	+200	open	—	03-03 04:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 01:39:47	will ewy reach 210 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5f1115…
06-20 02:59:41	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2f2046…
06-20 02:59:38	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xfce596…
06-20 02:56:47	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x19ddda…
06-19 06:15:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x303602…
06-19 05:58:16	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x17468f…
06-19 05:57:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6c20df…
06-19 05:53:07	will micron q3 dram revenue be above 30b	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x10e79b…
06-19 05:49:23	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xfb1827…
06-19 05:43:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x1e3d33…
06-19 05:38:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x1ffb6d…
06-09 08:24:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x8fc3cb…
06-09 08:24:03	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$1	0xfdbc5f…
06-09 08:13:16	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x23a9da…
06-09 08:13:06	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x8a00a8…
06-09 08:10:06	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xf1c910…
05-20 00:26:05	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	89	10¢	$9	0x941d01…
05-20 00:25:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xef7686…
05-18 14:26:31	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	38	25¢	$10	0x2c991c…
05-18 14:26:11	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xf47f88…
05-18 14:25:35	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x89bf3c…
05-13 19:10:38	Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9e055f…
05-12 01:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbd939f…
05-12 01:35:50	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x4b7975…
05-12 01:32:39	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x70a539…
05-12 01:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x8c2d1b…
05-12 01:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb27018…
05-12 01:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb15328…
05-12 01:25:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc1282e…
05-06 20:19:41	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf4a6ec…
05-06 20:19:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x693634…
05-06 20:16:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xeaa69a…
05-06 20:14:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x33033e…
05-06 19:52:58	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0xf44460…
05-06 19:52:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0x0d59e2…
04-08 03:50:57	Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc87a83…
04-08 03:47:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x0c4aa3…
04-08 03:46:07	will wti crude oil settle at 8090 on april 8 252	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdac4b3…
04-08 03:45:03	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd567b0…
03-14 06:16:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xc12ddc…
03-07 11:18:09	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2fc955…
03-07 11:13:15	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x177d47…
03-07 10:58:05	btc updown 5m 1772880900	Up	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x5a8d1c…
03-07 10:45:15	btc updown 5m 1772880000	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x13cd0b…
03-07 10:44:51	btc updown 5m 1772880000	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x649bb1…
03-07 10:44:45	btc updown 5m 1772880000	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1ebde9…
03-07 10:36:09	btc updown 5m 1772879700	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xd5fedd…
03-07 10:35:33	btc updown 5m 1772879700	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x061f6c…
03-07 10:32:17	btc updown 5m 1772879400	Up	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xed5a06…
03-07 10:26:49	btc updown 5m 1772879100	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa42fcb…
03-07 10:25:37	btc updown 5m 1772879100	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xbfd8f0…
03-07 10:09:11	btc updown 5m 1772877900	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x37cb32…
03-07 10:06:13	btc updown 5m 1772877900	Down	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x6871de…
03-07 10:05:43	btc updown 5m 1772877900	Down	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xdf7bac…
03-07 10:05:37	btc updown 5m 1772877900	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x21c804…
03-07 10:05:31	btc updown 5m 1772877900	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x23201a…
03-07 10:03:01	btc updown 5m 1772877600	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc34c2e…
03-07 09:50:59	btc updown 5m 1772877000	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xc6ba82…
03-07 09:50:29	btc updown 5m 1772877000	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x619055…
03-07 09:48:15	btc updown 5m 1772876700	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xbf0aea…
03-07 09:41:41	btc updown 5m 1772876400	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfddcf1…
03-07 09:41:21	btc updown 5m 1772876400	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x5ab5d1…
03-07 09:32:07	btc updown 5m 1772875800	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3e7c18…
03-07 09:27:17	btc updown 5m 1772875500	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1f48ce…
03-07 09:24:35	btc updown 5m 1772875200	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd60a9c…
03-07 09:17:07	btc updown 5m 1772874900	Up	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x092934…
03-07 09:15:39	btc updown 5m 1772874900	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x32c87b…
03-07 09:12:27	btc updown 5m 1772874600	Down	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x4152d5…
03-07 09:04:33	btc updown 5m 1772874000	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5eb06b…
03-07 09:02:25	btc updown 5m 1772874000	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9446c2…
03-07 08:54:29	btc updown 5m 1772873400	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9c955e…
03-07 08:53:43	btc updown 5m 1772873400	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x52da9d…
03-07 08:53:19	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0xd969d8…
03-03 04:37:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xf0ee24…
03-03 04:36:59	will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4fa217…
03-03 04:36:57	will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb65ec4…
03-03 04:36:49	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x3a7fd6…
03-03 04:36:41	will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x850597…
03-03 04:36:35	will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x63078e…
03-03 04:36:31	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xd03587…
03-03 04:36:25	will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9f70b5…
01-16 20:27:00	gpt ads by march 31 269 364 978	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$2	0xe48039…
01-06 02:59:23	us strike on somalia by january 31	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x57a8d9…
01-06 02:54:47	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x415ab4…
01-06 02:52:03	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xa71f22…