Constant-Sermon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

19.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$254

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 07-16 06:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

42% 0% —

Politics

27% 100% +$0

Sports

21% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$26	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-12 08:19
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$19	500	500	+0	open	—	03-30 07:17
nhl las sea 2026 04 09	1	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	04-09 07:32
nba por bkn 2026 03 16	1	$9	11	0	+11	open	—	03-16 08:45
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 90 114	1	$9	12	0	+12	open	—	03-24 08:16
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	03-10 09:24
elc hul bir 2026 04 18 hul	1	$8	20	0	+20	open	—	04-18 09:48
cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 08	1	$8	11	0	+11	open	—	03-08 08:32
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	03-19 07:48
highest temperature in ankara on march 29 2026 11c	2	$7	31	0	+31	open	—	03-28 10:49
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 27	1	$7	14	0	+14	open	—	03-27 05:34
btc updown 5m 1773462000	1	$7	14	0	+14	open	—	03-13 09:30
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	06-24 06:39
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-07 09:34
asan quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 02 2026 0pt07	1	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	03-02 04:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	05-12 03:23
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	06-15 06:21
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	06-10 08:12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	05-27 03:27
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	07-02 06:16
nba bos lal 2026 02 22	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	02-22 10:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-26 08:40
cs2 vit navi 2026 03 29	1	$6	36	0	+36	open	—	03-29 08:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	1	$6	57	0	+57	open	—	06-06 06:24
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	07-16 06:08
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	03-29 10:44
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-25 04:28
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	07-06 06:07
nba cha was 2026 02 22	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-22 12:27
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 65 89	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-02 06:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 06:08:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x97a47b…
07-06 06:07:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x003430…
07-02 06:16:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xf9d86d…
07-02 05:48:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x01d5f5…
06-24 06:39:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0x6721fb…
06-15 06:21:25	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xeb6d9d…
06-10 08:12:18	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x1002f7…
06-06 06:24:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	BUY	57	10¢	$6	0x766740…
05-27 03:27:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x07b835…
05-24 02:21:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x45bf29…
05-12 03:23:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf73d19…
05-12 02:55:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	3¢	$3	0xf03343…
05-07 09:34:07	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0x8ff515…
04-30 04:46:38	Huzhou: Xiyu Wang vs Chengyiyi Yuan	Xiyu Wang	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x1978dc…
04-26 08:40:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xd3dc41…
04-18 09:48:10	elc hul bir 2026 04 18 hul	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xd898b5…
04-12 08:19:37	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	117	1¢	$2	0x9e3d36…
04-12 08:14:01	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	883	1¢	$11	0x5acbaa…
04-12 08:00:29	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0x16f032…
04-09 07:32:59	nhl las sea 2026 04 09	Kraken	BUY	25	38¢	$9	0x55ef20…
04-02 06:12:29	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 65 89	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x45b676…
04-01 11:01:29	highest temperature in seoul on april 2 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x2c73f5…
03-30 07:17:12	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xd578f7…
03-30 07:16:36	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	482	2¢	$9	0x7b9332…
03-30 07:16:12	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x732172…
03-29 10:44:26	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xb6c3fa…
03-29 08:47:36	cs2 vit navi 2026 03 29	Natus Vincere	BUY	36	16¢	$6	0x983b36…
03-28 10:49:03	highest temperature in ankara on march 29 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe9731b…
03-28 10:40:57	highest temperature in ankara on march 29 2026 11c	Yes	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xb51660…
03-27 05:34:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 27	No	BUY	14	47¢	$7	0xfb0281…
03-25 11:23:59	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x87d53c…
03-24 08:16:01	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 90 114	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x4206e4…
03-19 07:48:53	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x85d289…
03-16 08:45:09	nba por bkn 2026 03 16	Trail Blazers	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x6562d0…
03-13 09:30:59	btc updown 5m 1773462000	Down	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xebec02…
03-10 09:24:33	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	No	BUY	10	86¢	$8	0x562c3c…
03-08 08:32:09	cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 08	MOUZ	BUY	11	68¢	$8	0x9ab7a8…
03-04 13:01:33	btc updown 5m 1772633100	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xd146b9…
03-02 04:37:29	asan quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 02 2026 0pt07	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$6	0x2fd3e2…
02-25 04:28:12	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd9cabf…
02-22 12:27:06	nba cha was 2026 02 22	Hornets	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xbaa686…
02-22 10:02:08	nba bos lal 2026 02 22	Lakers	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x10711e…