Talkative-Guidance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$1.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-01 00:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

61% 67% +$30

Politics

31% 0% $-5

Crypto

4% 0% $-5

Sports

3% 0% $-10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+54	$20	26¢	$14	$-6	05-28 03:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	3	$121	133	129	+4	open	—	04-08 00:53
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$77	105	105	+0	open	—	03-26 01:27
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$75	69	69	+0	open	—	03-26 01:27
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	3	$52	150	67	+83	open	—	04-25 14:50
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	1	$50	0	50	-50	open	—	01-03 12:07
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$43	43	43	+0	open	—	03-09 19:35
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?	2	$40	45	44	+2	No	+$32	04-27 02:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	6	$40	181	181	+0	open	—	01-16 09:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$37	42	42	+0	open	—	05-11 07:49
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$32	36	36	+0	open	—	05-04 04:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$31	75	75	+0	open	—	05-04 13:29
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$30	23	23	+0	open	—	03-13 10:01
will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	03-16 21:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$28	24	24	+0	open	—	02-28 20:08
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$24	56	56	+0	open	—	06-18 15:11
bitboy convicted	2	$24	21	21	+0	open	—	03-31 19:39
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$23	228	228	+0	Yes	+$3	04-22 18:40
will israel strike gaza on january 3 2026	2	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	01-03 18:49
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	2	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	06-23 17:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$21	44	44	+0	open	—	03-12 03:08
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	2	$21	55	55	+0	open	—	05-05 20:20
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$20	80	0	+80	open	—	04-15 11:04
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	54	0	+54	open	—	05-28 03:02
will crude oil cl hit high 70 by end of march 696 795 574 483 322 319 847	4	$20	758	0	+758	open	—	03-02 10:57
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	2	$20	167	167	+0	open	—	06-27 05:57
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	4	$19	154	154	+0	open	—	03-03 09:55
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	2	$18	71	69	+2	open	—	04-22 12:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$17	30	30	+0	open	—	04-14 02:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$17	89	89	+0	open	—	03-01 02:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$17	39	39	+0	open	—	04-15 11:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 00:49:08	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 goals julian quinones gte1	Yes	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0xa7ddda…
06-27 15:22:17	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	375	1¢	$3	0x51303f…
06-27 05:57:41	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	SELL	167	6¢	$10	0xe18302…
06-23 17:42:59	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x9b5cb4…
06-23 17:39:20	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xde0d94…
06-23 12:40:43	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x153ec2…
06-22 14:39:58	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x7ab8ff…
06-22 14:36:37	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xd201a4…
06-18 15:11:59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	26¢	$14	0xfec354…
06-17 00:39:07	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xb04df3…
06-10 10:12:03	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xecbee6…
06-09 15:31:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x175d72…
06-05 00:36:31	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x8eff2f…
05-28 12:06:40	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x0c23f7…
05-28 03:02:40	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x1e33a5…
05-28 01:37:30	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xe4c0c5…
05-11 07:49:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	42	65¢	$27	0x498e9e…
05-07 12:18:35	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x8cd60a…
05-05 20:20:50	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0x1197fb…
05-04 17:49:10	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	55	18¢	$10	0x4aaffa…
05-04 13:29:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	75	21¢	$16	0xb6d23e…
05-04 11:30:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xba647a…
05-04 11:29:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xd75029…
05-04 04:43:12	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	36	76¢	$27	0x51c7a3…
04-30 13:22:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x61a9e7…
04-30 07:02:42	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x78fddf…
04-27 11:25:22	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xc6a322…
04-27 03:23:00	Over $250k committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0xa46b5f…
04-27 02:56:16	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0xb9f5a1…
04-27 02:53:16	Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?	No	SELL	44	81¢	$35	0xb3e7b7…
04-26 12:02:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xddc607…
04-25 16:20:42	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xf35556…
04-25 14:50:38	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x78849d…
04-23 12:55:16	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x5a6f7d…
04-23 12:40:56	Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?	No	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xb4eab3…
04-22 18:40:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	228	6¢	$13	0x0250cd…
04-22 17:21:36	Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x383599…
04-22 17:20:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xe2b1b0…
04-22 17:19:08	Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x914121…
04-22 14:13:32	Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb7b736…
04-22 14:09:22	will donald trumps tie be another color on april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x082305…
04-22 14:07:22	Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0x4d2063…
04-22 14:06:10	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xde7efd…
04-22 14:05:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x17929b…
04-22 13:01:48	USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xdbd55f…
04-22 12:47:40	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Blazers	SELL	69	18¢	$13	0x3976bc…
04-19 19:43:24	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xa0569f…
04-19 12:39:30	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Blazers	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x690fc6…
04-15 11:18:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	39	18¢	$7	0x0ec604…
04-15 11:04:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x8244b7…
04-14 13:44:17	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	No	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xa98951…
04-14 13:40:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0x774004…
04-14 02:34:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0x574ce8…
04-12 12:43:47	Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x06be77…
04-12 11:49:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x3915ad…
04-08 15:29:45	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xefc893…
04-08 12:07:31	will wti crude oil settle at 90100 on april 8 118	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xf350e3…
04-08 00:53:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	129	70¢	$91	0xd273e5…
04-06 00:20:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x474bbc…
04-05 22:28:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x3ffa79…
04-05 22:22:13	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	SELL	67	55¢	$37	0x69f583…
04-05 12:54:53	NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x488efb…
04-05 12:16:55	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xe95451…
04-04 13:09:23	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10	No	BUY	134	4¢	$5	0x185d3c…
04-04 13:03:13	will tadej pogacar win the 2026 mens tour de flanders 186	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xc32f5d…
04-03 12:19:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0x6918f2…
04-03 03:06:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x69c864…
04-02 12:47:21	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x466fdd…
04-02 12:46:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x66cbb6…
04-02 12:43:35	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xe61aa8…
04-02 12:36:27	Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x4b918c…
03-31 19:39:19	bitboy convicted	No	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0x3a9733…
03-31 12:52:53	bitboy convicted	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xe91bf4…
03-31 12:49:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x66b48d…
03-31 12:26:37	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x604daf…
03-31 01:41:47	will trump dance during easter lunch on april 1	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb030f7…
03-29 20:57:54	btc updown 5m 1774817700	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xac8cd4…
03-26 01:27:11	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	53	70¢	$37	0x7972ef…
03-26 01:27:05	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	69	80¢	$55	0x470c96…
03-21 12:14:17	ncaa tournament perfect bracket	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0xe2814e…
03-20 11:16:07	ncaa tournament perfect bracket	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x920de5…
03-19 13:13:57	hezbollah military action against israel by march 20	No	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xb89ade…
03-17 13:14:27	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x27634f…
03-16 22:11:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x77ae1e…
03-16 21:37:57	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0xc4b8fc…
03-16 12:50:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xf8edf1…
03-13 11:06:25	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0xfe8933…
03-13 10:01:23	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0xcf1fe7…
03-12 03:09:47	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0xf267b9…
03-12 03:09:29	jos lus rodrguez zapatero arrested by march 31	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x08ca84…
03-12 03:09:05	venezuela coup attempt by january 31 428	Yes	SELL	53	4¢	$2	0x9e6eb2…
03-12 03:08:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	44	26¢	$11	0x1cf626…
03-12 01:33:31	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xc86084…
03-12 01:31:31	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x7e9507…
03-11 20:32:47	will trump meet with xi jinping in march 2026 241	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xd37190…
03-10 12:29:47	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xfd794b…
03-09 19:35:33	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	43	77¢	$33	0x4a97b3…
03-09 19:35:29	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	53	38¢	$20	0x4b0deb…
03-09 05:31:43	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xf4a809…
03-08 22:28:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x5e950c…