Raw-Penny — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$156

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$788

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$127

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-21 03:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Politics

44% 67% +$156

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-823	$-74	10¢	$-78	$-4	06-20 21:06
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-1,149	$-47	4¢	$-49	$-2	06-20 21:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 map handicap home 1pt5	1	$134	212	0	+212	open	—	06-21 03:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$131	243	243	+0	open	—	02-28 17:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$97	96	96	+0	open	—	02-28 17:11
New pandemic in 2026?	1	$74	0	823	-823	open	—	06-20 21:06
si hit 150 high jan 2026	1	$57	5,317	0	+5,317	open	—	01-25 19:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$47	0	1,149	-1,149	open	—	06-20 21:06
nba tor por 2026 01 23 spread away 5pt5	1	$35	56	0	+56	open	—	01-24 04:18
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	1	$30	150	0	+150	Yes	+$120	02-28 17:31
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	3	$29	27	27	+0	Yes	$-0	04-20 22:45
aus wsw per 2026 01 25 wsw	1	$28	57	0	+57	open	—	01-25 07:54
lal bar ovi 2026 01 25 bar	1	$27	225	0	+225	open	—	01-25 07:56
atp spizzir sinner 2026 01 24	1	$22	189	0	+189	open	—	01-24 04:25
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$20	154	0	+154	open	—	02-28 17:18
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$19	21	0	+21	open	—	02-28 17:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$14	50	0	+50	Yes	+$36	04-20 22:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$11	142	0	+142	open	—	04-20 01:51
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$10	417	0	+417	open	—	02-28 17:22
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$1	125	0	+125	open	—	02-15 03:41
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$1	176	0	+176	open	—	02-15 03:41
btc updown 5m 1772299500	1	$1	14	0	+14	open	—	02-28 17:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 03:00:40	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 map handicap home 1pt5	FURIA	BUY	212	63¢	$134	0xc9efaf…
06-20 21:06:20	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	823	9¢	$74	0x367980…
06-20 21:06:02	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,149	4¢	$47	0x6590be…
04-20 22:45:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xb53aca…
04-20 22:45:54	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	27	53¢	$14	0x683c30…
04-20 21:16:08	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x423f89…
04-20 21:16:08	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x0d8f1c…
04-20 01:51:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	52	7¢	$4	0xe51ab1…
04-20 01:51:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0x58b8f4…
04-20 01:45:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	36	7¢	$3	0x3fe174…
04-20 01:43:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x974f13…
02-28 17:37:51	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$19	0xcdc13a…
02-28 17:31:13	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0xf53f7d…
02-28 17:27:11	btc updown 5m 1772299500	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6205fe…
02-28 17:22:59	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	417	2¢	$10	0x48ffc2…
02-28 17:18:39	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x6c80b2…
02-28 17:11:23	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	96	75¢	$72	0xc27c15…
02-28 17:11:17	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	243	46¢	$111	0xdd0a0b…
02-18 17:59:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x8918bb…
02-18 17:59:24	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	243	8¢	$20	0x25e7a8…
02-15 03:41:35	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xb1d7fc…
02-15 03:41:11	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	176	1¢	$1	0xc0eb22…
01-25 19:35:34	si hit 150 high jan 2026	Yes	BUY	5,317	1¢	$57	0xb8f41f…
01-25 07:56:42	lal bar ovi 2026 01 25 bar	No	BUY	225	12¢	$27	0x180508…
01-25 07:54:18	aus wsw per 2026 01 25 wsw	Yes	BUY	57	50¢	$28	0x638a7c…
01-24 04:25:26	atp spizzir sinner 2026 01 24	Spizzirri	BUY	189	12¢	$22	0x017b60…
01-24 04:18:44	nba tor por 2026 01 23 spread away 5pt5	Raptors	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0x06580f…