Innocent-Episode — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$592

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-17

last 07-01 19:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

35% 0% $-10

Crypto

30% — —

Other

18% — —

Sports

9% 100% +$34

Tech

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+38	$5	10¢	$4	$-1	07-01 19:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	2	$87	49	49	+0	open	—	04-23 10:42
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	2	$63	49	49	+0	open	—	04-22 20:26
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$51	67	63	+4	open	—	04-22 08:59
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	3	$32	83	83	+0	open	—	04-23 10:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$31	23	23	+0	open	—	04-08 20:11
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$30	122	0	+122	open	—	05-04 04:13
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	1	$30	46	0	+46	open	—	05-04 04:12
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	2	$25	46	0	+46	open	—	03-17 05:55
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$21	53	53	+0	open	—	03-22 15:32
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	1	$20	72	0	+72	open	—	03-17 05:56
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	1	$20	133	0	+133	open	—	03-17 05:55
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	1	$15	31	0	+31	Yes	+$16	05-06 18:40
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$15	313	0	+313	open	—	03-17 06:25
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$13	56	53	+3	open	—	04-23 10:45
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$11	28	28	+0	open	—	04-23 10:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	$-10	05-09 18:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	04-24 16:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$10	67	0	+67	open	—	04-22 17:38
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$10	98	0	+98	open	—	04-24 16:06
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	1	$10	74	0	+74	open	—	04-01 05:12
will duke advance to the sweet sixteen	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	03-17 06:27
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	1	$5	62	0	+62	open	—	05-04 04:13
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 300 319	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	03-22 15:31
will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on april 1	1	$5	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	04-01 09:29
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 80000 on april 1	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-01 09:29
nhl wsh nj 2026 04 02	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 11:21
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?	1	$5	72	0	+72	open	—	04-22 17:23
will people be said 100 times during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	1	$5	228	0	+228	open	—	04-01 09:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	06-01 15:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	38	0	+38	open	—	07-01 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 19:36:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x9db6ce…
06-01 15:24:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x740697…
05-14 06:05:08	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	1¢	$5	0x17f1fc…
05-10 03:57:06	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x8b7d84…
05-09 18:40:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xac3a3a…
05-06 18:40:13	Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0xb29963…
05-04 09:25:18	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xeb4d79…
05-04 04:13:40	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x7c4178…
05-04 04:13:32	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x97cdb0…
05-04 04:12:06	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xff8671…
05-04 04:08:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x92c24d…
04-24 16:06:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0xdc6443…
04-24 16:01:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x48ef92…
04-23 10:50:20	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	23¢	$6	0x44cd42…
04-23 10:45:36	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	Yes	SELL	83	17¢	$14	0xdeba2e…
04-23 10:45:30	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	53	6¢	$3	0xfad3a3…
04-23 10:45:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$0	0x692f84…
04-23 10:42:48	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x0b3611…
04-22 20:26:36	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x77258c…
04-22 17:38:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x764576…
04-22 17:38:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x02c1f2…
04-22 17:25:28	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	Yes	BUY	49	31¢	$15	0x222a1a…
04-22 17:23:58	Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?	Yes	BUY	72	7¢	$5	0x589204…
04-22 17:22:08	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x73cd3f…
04-22 08:59:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	63	65¢	$41	0x2561d4…
04-22 04:41:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	186	0¢	$0	0x3b3b2a…
04-08 20:11:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x591578…
04-07 22:26:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	23	34¢	$8	0xefb391…
04-02 11:21:39	nhl wsh nj 2026 04 02	Capitals	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x283083…
04-02 10:52:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x156a14…
04-02 10:51:43	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x466abf…
04-01 09:29:21	will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on april 1	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x7687d5…
04-01 09:29:09	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 80000 on april 1	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x4c511a…
04-01 09:26:45	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x312e51…
04-01 09:22:47	will people be said 100 times during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	Yes	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0x0b63dd…
04-01 09:22:25	will matrix be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience for the week april 5	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9f3889…
04-01 05:13:21	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xf1be13…
04-01 05:12:01	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	74	14¢	$10	0x2d59ad…
04-01 05:06:29	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0x109e75…
03-22 15:40:45	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	Yes	BUY	41	19¢	$8	0xc86ed9…
03-22 15:40:35	trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xaa0371…
03-22 15:36:17	btc updown 4h 1774180800	Down	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xe5dbc2…
03-22 15:32:03	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	53	20¢	$11	0xaed318…
03-22 15:31:25	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 300 319	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xb3e079…
03-17 06:27:11	will duke advance to the sweet sixteen	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x880cbc…
03-17 06:25:09	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	209	5¢	$10	0x35c3df…
03-17 06:03:13	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x0514ae…
03-17 06:01:03	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0xa19b88…
03-17 05:56:43	will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0xb56095…
03-17 05:55:49	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x580a1c…
03-17 05:55:23	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x932fb2…
03-17 05:53:59	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x4bb825…