Hard-To-Find-Gunpowder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

37.8%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$556

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-11

last 07-05 22:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 16% +$13

Other

4% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes		-9	$-1	7¢	$-1	+$0	07-05 22:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$64	125	125	+0	Down	+$54	05-12 21:19
btc updown 5m 1780890900	3	$30	42	29	+13	open	—	06-08 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	05-25 17:45
btc updown 5m 1780875000	4	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	06-07 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	4	$21	82	23	+59	Down	$-3	05-12 21:49
btc updown 5m 1780888800	2	$20	71	0	+71	open	—	06-08 03:21
btc updown 5m 1780524300	4	$18	19	19	+0	open	—	06-03 22:09
btc updown 5m 1780885500	3	$17	62	12	+50	open	—	06-08 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$16	12	12	+0	open	—	05-25 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	3	$15	102	0	+102	Up	$-15	05-12 21:43
btc updown 5m 1780522800	2	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	06-03 21:40
btc updown 5m 1780891500	2	$12	47	0	+47	open	—	06-08 04:09
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$12	47	0	+47	open	—	05-13 23:28
btc updown 5m 1780874100	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	06-07 23:15
btc updown 5m 1780523700	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	06-03 21:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	3	$11	529	29	+500	Down	$-9	05-12 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	2	$10	188	0	+188	Down	$-10	05-12 21:23
btc updown 5m 1780889100	1	$10	43	0	+43	open	—	06-08 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	2	$10	38	0	+38	Down	$-10	05-12 21:26
btc updown 5m 1780887900	2	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	06-08 03:07
btc updown 5m 1780887000	2	$9	20	20	+0	open	—	06-08 02:53
btc updown 5m 1780874400	3	$9	24	0	+24	open	—	06-07 23:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	3	$9	138	0	+138	Up	$-9	05-12 21:54
btc updown 5m 1780887300	2	$7	52	0	+52	open	—	06-08 02:59
btc updown 5m 1780885800	2	$6	20	20	+0	open	—	06-08 02:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$5	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-26 00:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	1	$5	20	0	+20	Down	$-5	05-11 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	1	$5	125	0	+125	Up	$-5	05-12 22:33
btc updown 5m 1780874700	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	06-07 23:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 22:27:38	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x3d233e…
06-08 04:09:13	btc updown 5m 1780891500	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x13f668…
06-08 04:05:21	btc updown 5m 1780891500	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x224ea0…
06-08 03:59:49	btc updown 5m 1780890900	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xc4e953…
06-08 03:58:48	btc updown 5m 1780890900	Down	SELL	29	33¢	$10	0xdb2a99…
06-08 03:57:54	btc updown 5m 1780890900	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xd7f54e…
06-08 03:27:01	btc updown 5m 1780889100	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x8c44f1…
06-08 03:21:27	btc updown 5m 1780888800	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xf07cd7…
06-08 03:20:33	btc updown 5m 1780888800	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x512765…
06-08 03:14:33	btc updown 5m 1780888200	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xe3f98d…
06-08 03:07:18	btc updown 5m 1780887900	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x1b39a7…
06-08 03:06:40	btc updown 5m 1780887900	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x567220…
06-08 03:03:34	btc updown 5m 1780887600	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7230b7…
06-08 02:59:06	btc updown 5m 1780887300	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xfc0d9d…
06-08 02:58:25	btc updown 5m 1780887300	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x0a165f…
06-08 02:53:34	btc updown 5m 1780887000	Down	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x8a82d4…
06-08 02:51:39	btc updown 5m 1780887000	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x1f0e25…
06-08 02:32:43	btc updown 5m 1780885800	Up	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xb26427…
06-08 02:32:15	btc updown 5m 1780885800	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xb7ffb4…
06-08 02:29:43	btc updown 5m 1780885500	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x094fa5…
06-08 02:28:36	btc updown 5m 1780885500	Down	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x7a8a04…
06-08 02:25:55	btc updown 5m 1780885500	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xfaefe0…
06-07 23:34:57	btc updown 5m 1780875000	Down	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xd94f6e…
06-07 23:32:22	btc updown 5m 1780875000	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb9650b…
06-07 23:31:43	btc updown 5m 1780875000	Down	SELL	14	70¢	$9	0x96f612…
06-07 23:30:57	btc updown 5m 1780875000	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7251c2…
06-07 23:25:40	btc updown 5m 1780874700	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x991337…
06-07 23:20:36	btc updown 5m 1780874400	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xf79bea…
06-07 23:20:16	btc updown 5m 1780874400	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0xc9c704…
06-07 23:20:16	btc updown 5m 1780874400	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x4937c3…
06-07 23:15:45	btc updown 5m 1780874100	Down	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0xcf438f…
06-07 23:14:37	btc updown 5m 1780874100	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbf2848…
06-04 21:17:49	btc updown 5m 1780607700	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6cb574…
06-03 22:18:46	btc updown 5m 1780524900	Up	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xc8e893…
06-03 22:10:57	btc updown 5m 1780524600	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf32fe3…
06-03 22:09:40	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Up	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0xaafe99…
06-03 22:09:18	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x8e4fa2…
06-03 22:06:54	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Down	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xeca8bf…
06-03 22:03:52	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x62b206…
06-03 21:57:19	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Up	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x7c50ef…
06-03 21:54:27	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x707ffb…
06-03 21:40:57	btc updown 5m 1780522800	Down	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x236ffe…
06-03 21:39:54	btc updown 5m 1780522800	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8ac33a…
05-26 00:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x083594…
05-26 00:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x1cc85d…
05-26 00:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf2d967…
05-26 00:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd67fc8…
05-26 00:23:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xe29478…
05-26 00:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1c76d3…
05-26 00:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x30feef…
05-25 17:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb837eb…
05-25 17:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xa8ee51…
05-25 17:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x38414b…
05-25 17:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xd75ea5…
05-25 17:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x30f7dd…
05-25 17:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x0eef2a…
05-25 17:37:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x975039…
05-25 17:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcb08c9…
05-25 17:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xe9ef96…
05-25 17:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5d583d…
05-25 16:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5f0726…
05-21 22:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4556b3…
05-21 22:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa4def1…
05-21 22:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x19fac0…
05-21 22:03:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2e16b1…
05-21 21:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x49d058…
05-21 21:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xfce1fa…
05-18 19:32:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x5f60ff…
05-15 19:43:07	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 18?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x4c4e17…
05-15 19:29:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x8dfd41…
05-15 19:22:37	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	Yes	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0x6fe990…
05-15 19:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7e1276…
05-15 03:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc0056b…
05-15 03:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe3d4d5…
05-14 20:42:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xbf6cf6…
05-14 20:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x95d35e…
05-14 20:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xffef9e…
05-14 20:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xba7bd9…
05-14 20:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x2fe4c7…
05-14 20:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x1680a6…
05-14 19:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0228d9…
05-14 19:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe8693d…
05-14 03:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xf3d6ce…
05-14 02:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x34a8da…
05-14 02:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x53b822…
05-13 23:28:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xb8dd16…
05-13 23:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x46c258…
05-13 23:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x2a3034…
05-13 23:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbcaf28…
05-13 22:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x216a31…
05-13 22:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x0d8122…
05-13 22:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdddc75…
05-13 22:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdde1d7…
05-13 22:42:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa49762…
05-13 22:41:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0c1ef7…
05-13 22:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x25c74c…
05-13 22:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf4f43b…
05-13 22:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb35dcc…
05-13 22:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4651f6…
05-13 22:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe74a4d…