Dependent-Title — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$122

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

82.1%

Resolved

Trades

210

lifetime

Volume

$18.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

$94

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-26 14:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

50% — —

Crypto

43% 100% +$2

Politics

6% 50% $-125

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No		-120	$-105	78¢	$-94	+$11	06-26 14:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	9	$2.9K	1,929	1,122	+807	open	—	04-20 11:45
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	14	$1.0K	537	537	+0	open	—	03-25 01:42
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$750	568	200	+368	open	—	01-28 15:04
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$693	348	348	+0	open	—	03-23 13:52
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	2	$615	310	310	+0	open	—	01-23 11:54
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$605	320	320	+0	open	—	05-15 14:22
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$597	306	306	+0	open	—	01-24 05:36
will ethereum dip to 2600 january 19 25	10	$594	300	299	+1	open	—	01-24 14:10
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	18	$560	285	285	+0	open	—	03-19 14:09
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	3	$511	261	261	+0	open	—	01-31 13:31
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	7	$471	240	240	+0	open	—	04-15 15:00
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$457	230	230	+0	open	—	02-27 14:47
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?	1	$446	455	0	+455	open	—	01-06 10:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	42	$418	217	217	+0	open	—	04-10 12:33
will bitcoin dip to 78k january 26 1	5	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	01-28 11:59
will the fed cutcutpause in the next three decisions octdecjan	7	$390	85	329	-244	open	—	01-19 16:38
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	1	$386	400	0	+400	open	—	02-06 09:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$385	200	200	+0	open	—	05-17 00:40
Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	4	$350	176	176	+0	open	—	02-11 15:13
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?	8	$343	136	210	-74	open	—	02-28 09:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$323	226	109	+117	open	—	03-18 19:26
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	5	$316	160	160	+0	open	—	02-06 11:59
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$285	286	0	+286	open	—	03-18 12:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	2	$278	140	140	+0	open	—	04-20 10:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$263	135	135	+0	No	+$1	05-08 09:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$259	130	130	+0	open	—	03-28 08:15
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	4	$254	130	130	+0	open	—	05-13 11:05
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$247	125	125	+0	open	—	03-26 17:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	1	$244	260	0	+260	open	—	04-13 08:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	3	$235	120	120	+0	open	—	05-12 09:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 14:00:40	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	120	88¢	$105	0xbb19ff…
05-17 00:40:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0xaa9243…
05-15 14:22:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	320	95¢	$304	0x7d88a6…
05-13 11:05:40	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	SELL	130	98¢	$127	0xb8cefa…
05-12 14:09:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$117	0xd4a245…
05-12 14:08:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xf4b660…
05-12 09:50:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0x63cf98…
05-09 13:21:21	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x6a8950…
05-09 12:58:57	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x0d66f1…
05-09 12:51:32	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x0a797e…
05-09 12:26:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0xfe6fc9…
05-09 12:19:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	74	97¢	$72	0x9c7d68…
05-09 12:15:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x52b2ab…
05-08 11:34:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	120	96¢	$116	0x05bf58…
05-08 09:54:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	135	98¢	$132	0x2b38a7…
05-08 08:18:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	320	94¢	$301	0x129709…
05-08 08:16:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x95d8b7…
05-08 08:15:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	135	97¢	$131	0x8ebf0f…
05-08 08:15:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	97¢	$126	0x7e6153…
04-24 21:02:12	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x6e55b2…
04-20 11:45:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	807	99¢	$798	0xd8b9ed…
04-20 11:44:20	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd4ba1e…
04-20 10:10:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0xc1dc0c…
04-15 15:00:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	SELL	240	99¢	$238	0x8972aa…
04-15 14:11:24	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x73f72a…
04-13 10:41:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0xcb4372…
04-13 10:28:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	58	97¢	$56	0x42db63…
04-13 10:17:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xa0a41e…
04-13 10:02:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xfe41d2…
04-13 09:56:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x270f13…
04-13 09:18:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	59	97¢	$58	0xd587af…
04-13 08:05:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	260	94¢	$244	0xae24be…
04-11 14:06:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	220	98¢	$215	0xb206c1…
04-10 13:37:01	Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0x947c07…
04-10 13:02:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0x753604…
04-10 12:33:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	127	98¢	$124	0x9a0731…
04-10 12:25:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	220	97¢	$214	0x43569e…
04-10 12:24:33	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x655895…
04-10 12:23:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xa3177e…
04-10 12:23:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x5070c6…
04-10 12:23:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0x82686b…
04-08 00:04:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	723	97¢	$702	0x6e7518…
04-08 00:00:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xf95456…
04-07 23:59:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0xd41450…
03-28 08:15:05	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0xc69dd2…
03-28 07:36:05	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	137	99¢	$135	0x2fa377…
03-28 07:35:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	180	97¢	$175	0xaebbc7…
03-26 17:28:35	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x383792…
03-26 07:37:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	812	92¢	$747	0xac16fc…
03-26 07:31:25	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0xc2e4cd…
03-26 07:23:07	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xe4578b…
03-25 01:42:41	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x88960f…
03-25 01:40:11	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x29c960…
03-24 10:55:33	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xf19654…
03-24 10:34:07	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0xb9874e…
03-24 09:23:17	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdb1668…
03-23 13:52:55	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	240	100¢	$239	0xc83b06…
03-22 03:18:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	90	89¢	$80	0x85f2cc…
03-20 13:01:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	90	87¢	$78	0x9c0e94…
03-20 13:00:23	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	240	100¢	$239	0xafd46c…
03-20 13:00:01	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8b808d…
03-20 12:59:41	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$159	0x73f103…
03-19 14:09:05	EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0xf3c957…
03-19 12:38:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xa3d2af…
03-19 12:38:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x8bde78…
03-19 12:38:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x14c42e…
03-19 12:37:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xbb53cb…
03-19 12:37:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb1b468…
03-19 12:37:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x20359e…
03-19 12:37:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x031f46…
03-19 12:37:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xea5aee…
03-19 12:37:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xd6609b…
03-19 12:37:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf92d57…
03-19 12:37:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x4a0f60…
03-19 12:37:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x16496a…
03-19 12:37:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x03ea8e…
03-19 12:37:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb07090…
03-19 12:37:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2b98e2…
03-19 12:37:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb14b34…
03-19 12:37:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x77cce5…
03-19 12:37:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x32b68b…
03-19 12:37:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb4fa49…
03-19 12:37:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x0536ed…
03-19 12:37:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x39259c…
03-19 12:37:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x741d4f…
03-19 12:37:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xea898b…
03-19 12:35:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xc72af9…
03-19 12:35:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x0b4161…
03-19 12:35:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xe0e298…
03-19 12:35:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x37e493…
03-19 12:35:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xa0f24a…
03-19 12:35:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xbc030c…
03-19 12:35:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x7b7e19…
03-19 12:35:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x8801f5…
03-19 12:35:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf79e7c…
03-19 12:35:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xa3c878…
03-19 12:35:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x7b9819…
03-19 12:35:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x3ae6fc…
03-19 12:35:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xfbea19…
03-19 12:35:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xdf197c…