Natural-Pirate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$276

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-26

last 06-04 20:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

42% — —

Other

29% — —

Politics

19% 0% $-0

Tech

5% — —

Sports

4% 0% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes		-33	$-1	1¢	$-0	+$0	06-04 20:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1772124300	2	$16	125	125	+0	open	—	02-26 16:49
btc updown 5m 1772125800	3	$16	507	7	+500	open	—	02-26 17:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$16	31	31	+0	Yes	$-0	05-06 04:01
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	2	$15	29	29	+0	open	—	03-04 05:52
btc updown 5m 1772126100	2	$13	12	11	+0	open	—	02-26 17:16
btc updown 5m 1772124900	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	02-26 16:57
btc updown 5m 1772130900	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-26 18:40
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-13 15:57
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	3	$10	19	16	+3	open	—	03-13 02:30
btc updown 5m 1772127000	2	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	02-26 17:33
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	03-26 02:44
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	04-11 01:57
will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-30 19:50
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$5	12	4	+8	No	$-3	04-26 18:08
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	03-01 14:51
btc updown 5m 1772127300	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-26 17:35
btc updown 5m 1772126400	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	02-26 17:20
btc updown 5m 1772126700	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-26 17:25
btc updown 5m 1772124600	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	02-26 16:50
btc updown 5m 1772125500	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	02-26 17:05
btc updown 5m 1772127600	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	02-26 17:40
btc updown 5m 1772125200	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	02-26 17:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-07 05:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-01 12:02
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	03-04 17:12
epl ful tot 2026 03 01 ful	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-01 16:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-11 17:50
bun bay moe 2026 03 06 moe	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-06 22:31
will canada strike iran by march 31	2	$4	69	69	+0	open	—	03-05 16:15
btc updown 5m 1772127900	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	02-26 17:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 20:21:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0x7fa6c6…
06-01 12:02:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5f5d8d…
05-28 07:56:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xdbd525…
05-11 17:53:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xd9c5b5…
05-11 17:50:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x415b5d…
05-06 04:01:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0xaa4608…
05-03 11:25:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x54968d…
04-29 05:28:00	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6eaf5b…
04-29 05:27:50	Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x24cd50…
04-29 05:27:22	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x9465f9…
04-27 16:10:12	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd69097…
04-26 18:09:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x88ae2a…
04-26 18:08:40	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x5e8f9c…
04-16 06:14:04	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xe43c0d…
04-16 06:13:26	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x50fd0e…
04-14 16:34:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x4af15d…
04-14 15:57:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x2903d0…
04-13 04:21:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x349872…
04-11 01:57:29	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xb58b8f…
04-10 14:01:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x076254…
04-10 13:57:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x2c1e47…
04-07 05:22:59	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x2951f7…
04-07 05:18:01	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xc4be83…
04-07 05:16:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x30546d…
04-06 16:38:05	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xa98f33…
04-05 16:38:29	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc7f326…
04-01 16:18:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x2d1788…
03-30 19:50:35	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8c5fab…
03-30 19:50:09	will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xba5c62…
03-26 17:20:21	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb744a5…
03-26 02:51:45	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd474e6…
03-26 02:51:39	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x843efb…
03-26 02:47:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x489ed8…
03-26 02:44:57	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x139e90…
03-20 05:19:25	will crude oil cl settle at 80 85 in march	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0xd57d24…
03-15 13:05:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x31d4a4…
03-15 13:05:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x48a3a0…
03-13 15:57:21	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xec133b…
03-13 02:32:29	nba den sas 2026 03 12	Spurs	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xde52fd…
03-13 02:30:17	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	No	SELL	16	22¢	$3	0x70d187…
03-09 16:21:09	will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xa29ad3…
03-09 16:20:57	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x387b7b…
03-07 18:00:31	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x148d1d…
03-07 17:59:21	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xfaa204…
03-06 22:31:51	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 moe	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xee4857…
03-06 09:10:37	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 moe	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa617fe…
03-06 08:03:15	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x4b728d…
03-05 16:31:01	will the reserve bank of australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xb31447…
03-05 16:15:29	will canada strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	69	3¢	$2	0xe3676c…
03-04 17:22:23	will crude oil cl settle at 80 85 in march	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xcea5e3…
03-04 17:12:05	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x50630f…
03-04 05:57:21	will canada strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	69	3¢	$2	0x994430…
03-04 05:54:43	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x90f61b…
03-04 05:52:57	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x89e5c4…
03-01 19:58:37	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x991db6…
03-01 19:57:51	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x7109a4…
03-01 16:43:15	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x54d822…
03-01 16:38:49	epl ful tot 2026 03 01 ful	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa853d4…
03-01 14:56:03	epl ful tot 2026 03 01 ful	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x8de033…
03-01 14:51:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x0798ef…
02-28 04:23:11	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xf7d4ae…
02-28 04:10:05	nba bkn bos 2026 02 27	Celtics	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb5487c…
02-27 19:28:07	nba bkn bos 2026 02 27	Celtics	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x55746b…
02-27 14:15:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x618b41…
02-27 10:52:17	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the march meeting	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xac9db2…
02-26 19:15:06	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x3cc2ce…
02-26 18:40:24	btc updown 5m 1772130900	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb38321…
02-26 18:36:04	btc updown 5m 1772130900	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xd7db81…
02-26 17:45:20	btc updown 5m 1772127900	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x8ff10e…
02-26 17:40:20	btc updown 5m 1772127600	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x1dccd9…
02-26 17:35:12	btc updown 5m 1772127300	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x86ce32…
02-26 17:33:36	btc updown 5m 1772127000	Up	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x1e068f…
02-26 17:30:50	btc updown 5m 1772127000	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xc1cc2d…
02-26 17:25:20	btc updown 5m 1772126700	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4cdf1b…
02-26 17:20:14	btc updown 5m 1772126400	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x63fca3…
02-26 17:16:54	btc updown 5m 1772126100	Up	SELL	11	66¢	$8	0xed998b…
02-26 17:16:30	btc updown 5m 1772126100	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x1e4956…
02-26 17:15:10	btc updown 5m 1772125800	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xc381c3…
02-26 17:14:12	btc updown 5m 1772125800	Up	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xcb25fc…
02-26 17:10:18	btc updown 5m 1772125800	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6a5fd8…
02-26 17:05:28	btc updown 5m 1772125500	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6fb403…
02-26 17:00:18	btc updown 5m 1772125200	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe56330…
02-26 16:57:02	btc updown 5m 1772124900	Up	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0xb5dc67…
02-26 16:55:16	btc updown 5m 1772124900	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbad869…
02-26 16:50:18	btc updown 5m 1772124600	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x515dde…
02-26 16:49:06	btc updown 5m 1772124300	Up	SELL	125	9¢	$11	0xa6f1ad…
02-26 16:46:38	btc updown 5m 1772124300	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x42065b…