Unusual-Scrim — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$188

Unrealized P&L

+$66

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

256

lifetime

Volume

$44.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$173

Open exposure

$988

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-19 04:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$188

Other

35% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+1,115	$666	58¢	$652	$-14	07-19 04:17
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	+226	$169	76¢	$172	+$3	07-01 06:18
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-161	$-155	59¢	$-95	+$60	06-24 05:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-98	$-87	70¢	$-69	+$17	06-27 15:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$4.7K	5,470	1,724	+3,745	open	—	01-30 05:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$4.1K	2,338	2,338	+0	open	—	04-03 11:02
iran strike on israel by january 31	6	$2.6K	1,346	1,346	+0	open	—	02-02 06:57
pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	9	$2.3K	1,140	1,347	-206	open	—	03-24 04:04
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	13	$2.2K	1,091	1,330	-239	open	—	01-17 12:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$2.1K	1,097	1,097	+0	open	—	01-29 00:43
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	10	$2.0K	0	2,069	-2,069	open	—	01-30 05:57
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	7	$1.5K	1,400	434	+966	open	—	03-10 00:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$1.5K	3,512	0	+3,512	open	—	03-07 05:30
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	5	$1.5K	1,859	1,859	+0	open	—	02-16 03:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	8	$1.4K	1,564	221	+1,344	open	—	02-27 21:03
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$1.3K	657	657	+0	open	—	04-15 17:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$1.3K	1,167	1,328	-161	open	—	06-24 05:54
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$1.1K	851	851	+0	open	—	02-14 12:48
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$1.1K	558	558	+0	open	—	03-24 04:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$1.1K	3,051	0	+3,051	open	—	04-03 11:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$935	517	517	+0	open	—	02-13 13:28
Iran leadership change by March 13?	3	$894	474	474	-0	open	—	03-17 04:47
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	6	$883	939	0	+939	open	—	06-25 09:57
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	4	$871	470	470	+0	open	—	02-09 06:07
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$838	2,254	2,254	+0	open	—	01-31 18:03
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	9	$720	1,039	207	+833	open	—	02-18 04:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$711	1,415	1,415	+0	open	—	02-27 21:02
Netanyahu out by June 30?	1	$683	0	688	-688	open	—	06-22 08:42
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	12	$666	1,115	0	+1,115	open	—	07-19 04:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	18	$562	8,953	8,953	+0	open	—	01-18 12:17
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	3	$474	1,649	0	+1,649	open	—	03-07 05:21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$453	495	495	+0	open	—	02-27 21:04
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	3	$405	965	0	+965	open	—	03-07 05:30
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	1	$334	348	0	+348	open	—	03-24 04:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 04:17:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf34ef4…
07-19 04:14:12	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	47	63¢	$30	0x85b32a…
07-19 04:13:13	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xa77cd7…
07-19 04:10:07	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	145	46¢	$67	0x4b105c…
07-01 15:28:44	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	35	30¢	$10	0x9c48d2…
07-01 09:42:22	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0x5583e5…
07-01 09:01:16	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	60	61¢	$37	0x0757c4…
07-01 06:50:10	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xa18e58…
07-01 06:37:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0xa5d7dc…
07-01 06:18:58	Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	BUY	118	76¢	$90	0x3f08e7…
07-01 06:18:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	500	62¢	$310	0x3cce95…
07-01 06:18:10	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	198	31¢	$61	0xb64749…
07-01 06:17:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x123d42…
07-01 06:17:35	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x52b3fc…
07-01 06:16:16	Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x53d063…
06-30 03:15:01	Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	BUY	78	73¢	$57	0xd7cff0…
06-27 15:14:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	75	86¢	$64	0xdba220…
06-25 09:57:13	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	112	94¢	$106	0xdd3519…
06-25 09:55:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xf66ab1…
06-24 09:32:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa7642f…
06-24 09:29:38	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	596	95¢	$566	0x2072c3…
06-24 09:29:16	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x5cb103…
06-24 05:54:22	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,328	53¢	$704	0x8eea3d…
06-23 08:44:37	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	48	34¢	$16	0x2a6d0a…
06-23 08:44:04	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x2f493e…
06-23 08:43:58	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x43ed39…
06-23 08:43:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	38	86¢	$33	0x5c841e…
06-22 08:49:08	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	250	53¢	$132	0x42b959…
06-22 08:47:35	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,167	47¢	$549	0x975bbb…
06-22 08:42:25	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	688	99¢	$683	0xd004ca…
06-22 08:38:25	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xbbb771…
06-22 08:38:14	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x74a69b…
06-22 08:38:10	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	132	91¢	$121	0x03725e…
06-22 08:23:58	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	70	91¢	$64	0x690d7d…
05-30 19:35:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x9cbc45…
04-22 04:34:32	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	84¢	$39	0x93d539…
04-22 04:33:50	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	83¢	$52	0x6d0af2…
04-15 17:33:34	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	657	99¢	$651	0xb960cb…
04-03 11:04:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,572	35¢	$550	0xd0ffca…
04-03 11:03:11	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xff71be…
04-03 11:02:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	862	100¢	$861	0x5aa5ea…
04-03 10:54:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	287	100¢	$287	0x32fd0c…
04-03 10:50:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x61bb68…
04-03 10:47:01	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	457	99¢	$450	0x7031e0…
04-03 10:46:39	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	416	100¢	$416	0x052bf3…
04-03 10:42:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0xbd0ac9…
04-03 10:40:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	859	35¢	$301	0xd2b268…
04-03 10:38:11	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	29¢	$30	0x771658…
04-03 10:34:47	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0xbedaed…
04-03 10:31:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	300	35¢	$105	0x626c1c…
04-03 10:31:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	584	100¢	$584	0x756473…
04-02 13:51:09	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x97607d…
04-02 13:51:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x65b7d6…
03-24 04:06:05	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	348	96¢	$334	0x92f013…
03-24 04:04:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x9d18d1…
03-24 04:04:15	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	558	99¢	$551	0x23483f…
03-24 04:04:05	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	601	99¢	$592	0x8d5d7b…
03-17 04:51:59	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	458	96¢	$438	0x0b3eec…
03-17 04:47:23	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	474	100¢	$474	0xd5f3d0…
03-17 04:46:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	891	76¢	$677	0x8d4d3c…
03-17 04:45:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x70a339…
03-14 11:57:15	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	335	26¢	$87	0x0ffe26…
03-10 11:36:23	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	158	92¢	$145	0x36a0dd…
03-10 11:35:57	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	No	SELL	156	93¢	$145	0xb3eea4…
03-10 00:34:29	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	84	67¢	$56	0xd4b491…
03-10 00:32:59	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	316	87¢	$275	0x12b79a…
03-08 05:58:07	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x6c35c3…
03-08 04:55:11	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	303	78¢	$236	0x7003b7…
03-08 04:41:41	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	39	78¢	$30	0x8ae777…
03-07 05:30:43	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	305	56¢	$171	0x540484…
03-07 05:30:09	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	159	60¢	$95	0x82ed6d…
03-07 05:30:07	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	159	60¢	$95	0x529045…
03-07 05:29:55	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	318	60¢	$190	0x8ebde6…
03-07 05:29:11	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	244	55¢	$134	0x5be67b…
03-07 05:24:41	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	741	92¢	$680	0x1c5c2f…
03-07 05:24:27	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x91671b…
03-07 05:21:09	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	218	43¢	$94	0x09888f…
03-07 05:17:17	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x9f0483…
03-05 13:28:21	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	BUY	134	96¢	$129	0xdeeba4…
03-05 13:27:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	1,824	41¢	$746	0x8b2cd6…
03-05 13:27:07	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0xd89fc9…
03-05 13:26:59	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x3bc04d…
03-05 13:26:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xac6b86…
03-05 13:26:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xc22f95…
03-05 13:23:29	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x9744c2…
03-05 13:20:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	910	39¢	$355	0x52d357…
03-05 13:20:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	142	39¢	$55	0xa5a99c…
03-05 13:20:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x85e90d…
03-05 13:19:27	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	881	27¢	$237	0xb37dea…
03-05 13:18:37	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xa32563…
03-05 13:18:15	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	BUY	550	26¢	$143	0x5f677a…
03-05 13:16:09	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x37b434…
03-05 13:12:27	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x904612…
03-05 13:11:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xdcc68c…
02-27 21:05:09	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	BUY	217	73¢	$158	0xbc2331…
02-27 21:04:47	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	495	32¢	$158	0xcf793c…
02-27 21:03:07	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	284	84¢	$238	0x410896…
02-27 21:02:39	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	271	88¢	$238	0x8db858…
02-27 21:01:43	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	399	83¢	$331	0x78129b…
02-18 04:26:56	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x8438fe…