BTC above $80,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? 13:20:56 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 70.7% vs Polymarket 63.0%. EV ≈ +$0.12 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 159 | $102.00 | +$56.73 (57%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+10.27 (+10%) |
| $500 | 794 | $510.00 | +$283.65 (57%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+51.37 (+10%) |
| $1,000 | 1,587 | $1,020.00 | +$567.30 (57%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+102.75 (+10%) |
| $5,000 | 7,937 | $5,100.00 | +$2,836.51 (57%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+513.74 (+10%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.630 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 70.7% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.123 · Max return 59%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.286 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.410 | −$349.50 | 852 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.237 | +$201.93 | + $650.50 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.703 | $-0.173 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-598.98 | $-147.56 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$201.93 (kept credit) | $-147.56 |
| ≥ $81,000 | +$852.44 (Yes wins) | −$650.50 (max loss) + $201.93 credit | $-147.56 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.630 | −$614.74 | 976 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.395 | −$385.26 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.077 | $-0.025 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+75.46 | $-24.22 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | +$975.78 | $0 (worthless) | $-24.22 |
| ≥ $81,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$975.78 (max) | $-24.22 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.