| Asset | Market | Strike | Dir | DTE | Polymarket | Deribit | Residual | Z | Vol 24h | Liquidity | Spot ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? ↗ | $2,200 | below | 27d | 67.5¢ | 26.6¢ | +40.9¢ | +3.9 | $9.6K | $17.1K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 27d | 85.5¢ | 48.8¢ | +36.7¢ | +3.5 | $31.1K | $19.6K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? ↗ | $1,000,000 | above | 88d | 49.0¢ | 0.0¢ | +49.0¢ | +3.5 | $1.2K | $133.1K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | $75,000 | below | 27d | 64.5¢ | 21.3¢ | +43.2¢ | +3.1 | $49.8K | $45.2K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 2d | 28.5¢ | 65.1¢ | -36.6¢ | -2.6 | $2.7K | $15.8K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 2d | 67.0¢ | 89.6¢ | -22.6¢ | -2.2 | $747 | $13.4K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 2d | 22.0¢ | 44.3¢ | -22.3¢ | -2.1 | $1.8K | $14.7K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 2d | 63.5¢ | 92.5¢ | -29.0¢ | -2.1 | $7.8K | $17.7K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 3d | 34.5¢ | 62.6¢ | -28.1¢ | -2.0 | $1.3K | $16.5K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 6d | 60.0¢ | 80.6¢ | -20.6¢ | -2.0 | $192 | $10.3K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 3d | 64.0¢ | 84.4¢ | -20.4¢ | -1.9 | $188 | $11.5K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 3d | 26.5¢ | 46.4¢ | -19.9¢ | -1.9 | $34 | $9.0K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? ↗ | $2,000 | below | 27d | 30.5¢ | 10.7¢ | +19.8¢ | +1.9 | $4.1K | $33.5K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 4d | 35.0¢ | 61.5¢ | -26.5¢ | -1.9 | $494 | $15.2K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 5d | 61.0¢ | 80.6¢ | -19.6¢ | -1.9 | $181 | $9.1K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 3d | 61.5¢ | 87.8¢ | -26.3¢ | -1.9 | $8.0K | $17.5K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 5d | 36.0¢ | 61.5¢ | -25.5¢ | -1.8 | $4.3K | $16.0K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 2d | 28.5¢ | 9.5¢ | +19.0¢ | +1.8 | — | $4.2K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 6d | 59.0¢ | 84.3¢ | -25.3¢ | -1.8 | $92 | $12.1K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 4d | 62.0¢ | 80.6¢ | -18.6¢ | -1.8 | $84 | $9.0K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 5d | 59.5¢ | 84.3¢ | -24.8¢ | -1.8 | $3.8K | $18.1K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 4d | 59.5¢ | 84.3¢ | -24.8¢ | -1.8 | $7.2K | $16.9K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 4d | 29.0¢ | 47.4¢ | -18.4¢ | -1.8 | $8 | $9.0K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 6d | 37.0¢ | 61.5¢ | -24.5¢ | -1.7 | $123 | $12.0K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | $70,000 | below | 27d | 32.5¢ | 8.3¢ | +24.2¢ | +1.7 | $76.4K | $72.2K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? ↗ | $2,600 | above | 27d | 42.5¢ | 25.1¢ | +17.4¢ | +1.7 | $27.4K | $29.6K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 5d | 31.0¢ | 47.4¢ | -16.4¢ | -1.6 | $18 | $9.0K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 3d | 28.0¢ | 13.0¢ | +15.0¢ | +1.4 | — | $4.1K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 2d | 26.5¢ | 6.4¢ | +20.1¢ | +1.4 | $6.9K | $12.2K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 6d | 32.5¢ | 47.4¢ | -14.9¢ | -1.4 | $49 | $10.3K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 3d | 11.5¢ | 30.4¢ | -18.9¢ | -1.3 | $983 | $17.0K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 2d | 19.5¢ | 33.5¢ | -14.0¢ | -1.3 | — | $4.1K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 10? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 6d | 81.5¢ | 95.3¢ | -13.8¢ | -1.3 | $240 | $9.9K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 2d | 20.0¢ | 38.5¢ | -18.4¢ | -1.3 | $583 | $7.5K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 2d | 8.8¢ | 26.6¢ | -17.9¢ | -1.3 | $3.5K | $16.8K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | $85,000 | above | 27d | 46.5¢ | 28.9¢ | +17.6¢ | +1.3 | $80.1K | $52.1K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 4d | 16.0¢ | 33.2¢ | -17.2¢ | -1.2 | $1.4K | $17.2K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 6d | 78.0¢ | 94.9¢ | -16.9¢ | -1.2 | $531 | $14.3K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 5d | 17.0¢ | 33.2¢ | -16.2¢ | -1.2 | $2.1K | $17.5K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 3d | 24.5¢ | 9.3¢ | +15.2¢ | +1.1 | $308 | $8.9K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 3d | 21.0¢ | 32.3¢ | -11.3¢ | -1.1 | $24 | $4.1K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 5d | 84.5¢ | 95.3¢ | -10.8¢ | -1.0 | $199 | $9.1K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 5d | 80.5¢ | 94.9¢ | -14.4¢ | -1.0 | $1.8K | $18.3K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 4d | 81.0¢ | 94.9¢ | -13.9¢ | -1.0 | $54.8K | $20.3K | $80,901 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 6d | 20.0¢ | 30.0¢ | -10.0¢ | -1.0 | — | $4.9K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 5d | 20.0¢ | 30.0¢ | -10.0¢ | -1.0 | $24 | $4.5K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? ↗ | $2,800 | above | 27d | 20.5¢ | 10.6¢ | +9.9¢ | +0.9 | $26.3K | $25.1K | $2,397 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 4d | 24.5¢ | 14.7¢ | +9.8¢ | +0.9 | $708 | $8.8K | $2,397 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 3d | 19.5¢ | 32.2¢ | -12.7¢ | -0.9 | $249 | $6.6K | $80,901 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 6d | 20.5¢ | 33.2¢ | -12.7¢ | -0.9 | $1.5K | $17.6K | $80,901 |
Polymarket column is bid-derived implied prob:
(yes_bid + (1 - no_bid)) / 2.
Deribit column is risk-neutral P(direction|asset, strike, expiry)
extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger from an SVI smile fit on the live option chain.
Residual = Polymarket − Deribit.
Z uses a 14-day rolling residual std per signal_id (or a 7pp prior
while history is thin).
Refreshes every 5 min. Raw JSON at
/api/predict/signals.