ETH above $2,400
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? 13:24:34 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 88.3% vs Polymarket 79.0%. EV ≈ +$0.12 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 127 | $102.00 | +$24.58 (25%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+9.80 (+10%) |
| $500 | 633 | $510.00 | +$122.91 (25%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+49.00 (+10%) |
| $1,000 | 1,266 | $1,020.00 | +$245.82 (25%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+98.00 (+10%) |
| $5,000 | 6,329 | $5,100.00 | +$1,229.11 (25%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+490.01 (+10%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.790 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 88.3% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.118 · Max return 27%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.533 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.250 | −$217.05 | 868 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.098 | +$85.27 | + $782.95 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.367 | $-0.152 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-318.44 | $-131.78 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$85.27 (kept credit) | $-131.78 |
| ≥ $2,450 | +$868.22 (Yes wins) | −$782.95 (max loss) + $85.27 credit | $-131.78 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.790 | −$857.81 | 1,086 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.131 | −$142.19 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.093 | $+0.079 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+101.22 | $+85.84 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | +$1,085.84 | $0 (worthless) | $+85.84 |
| ≥ $2,450 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,085.84 (max) | $+85.84 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.