BTC above $78,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? 13:22:44 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 41.0% vs Polymarket 37.0%. EV ≈ +$0.11 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 270 | $102.00 | +$168.27 (168%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+8.87 (+9%) |
| $500 | 1,351 | $510.00 | +$841.35 (168%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+44.36 (+9%) |
| $1,000 | 2,703 | $1,020.00 | +$1,682.70 (168%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+88.72 (+9%) |
| $5,000 | 13,514 | $5,100.00 | +$8,413.51 (168%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+443.61 (+9%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.370 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 41.0% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.109 · Max return 170%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.078 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.640 | −$531.02 | 830 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.435 | +$360.74 | + $468.98 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.230 | $-0.205 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,020.37 | $-170.28 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $78,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$360.74 (kept credit) | $-170.28 |
| ≥ $79,000 | +$829.72 (Yes wins) | −$468.98 (max loss) + $360.74 credit | $-170.28 |
| ($78,000, $79,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.370 | −$342.13 | 925 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.711 | −$657.87 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.040 | $-0.081 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+37.20 | $-75.32 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $78,000 | +$924.68 | $0 (worthless) | $-75.32 |
| ≥ $79,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$924.68 (max) | $-75.32 |
| ($78,000, $79,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-08 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.