ETH above $2,300
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? 13:22:15 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 44.9% vs Polymarket 41.0%. EV ≈ +$0.10 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 244 | $102.00 | +$141.90 (142%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+7.63 (+8%) |
| $500 | 1,220 | $510.00 | +$709.51 (142%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+38.16 (+8%) |
| $1,000 | 2,439 | $1,020.00 | +$1,419.02 (142%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+76.32 (+8%) |
| $5,000 | 12,195 | $5,100.00 | +$7,095.12 (142%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+381.60 (+8%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.410 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 44.9% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.096 · Max return 144%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.126 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.630 | −$553.03 | 878 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.491 | +$430.85 | + $446.97 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.181 | $-0.139 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,036.28 | $-122.18 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$430.85 (kept credit) | $-122.18 |
| ≥ $2,350 | +$877.82 (Yes wins) | −$446.97 (max loss) + $430.85 credit | $-122.18 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.410 | −$393.83 | 961 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.631 | −$606.17 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.039 | $-0.041 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+37.93 | $-39.43 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | +$960.57 | $0 (worthless) | $-39.43 |
| ≥ $2,350 | $0 (No loses) | +$960.57 (max) | $-39.43 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.