ETH above $2,400
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? 13:23:48 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 78.8% vs Polymarket 69.0%. EV ≈ +$0.14 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 145 | $102.00 | +$42.93 (43%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+12.19 (+12%) |
| $500 | 725 | $510.00 | +$214.64 (43%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+60.96 (+12%) |
| $1,000 | 1,449 | $1,020.00 | +$429.28 (43%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+121.93 (+12%) |
| $5,000 | 7,246 | $5,100.00 | +$2,146.38 (43%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+609.65 (+12%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.690 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 78.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.142 · Max return 45%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.394 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.350 | −$302.16 | 863 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.192 | +$165.49 | + $697.84 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.562 | $-0.158 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-485.25 | $-136.68 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$165.49 (kept credit) | $-136.68 |
| ≥ $2,450 | +$863.32 (Yes wins) | −$697.84 (max loss) + $165.49 credit | $-136.68 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.690 | −$743.18 | 1,077 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.238 | −$256.82 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.098 | $+0.072 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+105.48 | $+77.08 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,400 | +$1,077.08 | $0 (worthless) | $+77.08 |
| ≥ $2,450 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,077.08 (max) | $+77.08 |
| ($2,400, $2,450) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.