BTC above $82,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? 13:20:05 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 95.9% vs Polymarket 92.5%. EV ≈ +$0.04 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 108 | $102.00 | +$6.11 (6%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+1.72 (+2%) |
| $500 | 541 | $510.00 | +$30.54 (6%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+8.59 (+2%) |
| $1,000 | 1,081 | $1,020.00 | +$61.08 (6%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+17.18 (+2%) |
| $5,000 | 5,405 | $5,100.00 | +$305.41 (6%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+85.89 (+2%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.925 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 95.9% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.037 · Max return 8%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.568 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.094 | −$88.48 | 941 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.032 | +$29.71 | + $911.52 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.135 | $-0.062 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-126.70 | $-58.76 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $82,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$29.71 (kept credit) | $-58.76 |
| ≥ $83,000 | +$941.24 (Yes wins) | −$911.52 (max loss) + $29.71 credit | $-58.76 |
| ($82,000, $83,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.925 | −$943.64 | 1,020 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.055 | −$56.36 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.034 | $+0.020 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+35.08 | $+20.15 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $82,000 | +$1,020.15 | $0 (worthless) | $+20.15 |
| ≥ $83,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,020.15 (max) | $+20.15 |
| ($82,000, $83,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.