BTC above $78,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? 13:23:37 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 41.6% vs Polymarket 40.0%. EV ≈ +$0.04 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 250 | $102.00 | +$148.00 (148%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+2.02 (+2%) |
| $500 | 1,250 | $510.00 | +$740.00 (148%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+10.08 (+2%) |
| $1,000 | 2,500 | $1,020.00 | +$1,480.00 (148%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+20.15 (+2%) |
| $5,000 | 12,500 | $5,100.00 | +$7,400.00 (148%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+100.77 (+2%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.400 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 41.6% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.040 · Max return 150%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.088 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.640 | −$548.92 | 858 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.474 | +$406.61 | + $451.08 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.224 | $-0.166 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,049.76 | $-142.31 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $78,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$406.61 (kept credit) | $-142.31 |
| ≥ $79,000 | +$857.69 (Yes wins) | −$451.08 (max loss) + $406.61 credit | $-142.31 |
| ($78,000, $79,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.400 | −$387.56 | 969 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.632 | −$612.44 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.016 | $-0.032 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+15.56 | $-31.11 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $78,000 | +$968.89 | $0 (worthless) | $-31.11 |
| ≥ $79,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$968.89 (max) | $-31.11 |
| ($78,000, $79,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-10 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-08 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.