BTC above $80,000
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? 13:20:46 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 79.1% vs Polymarket 71.0%. EV ≈ +$0.11 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 141 | $102.00 | +$38.85 (39%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+9.38 (+9%) |
| $500 | 704 | $510.00 | +$194.23 (39%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+46.89 (+9%) |
| $1,000 | 1,408 | $1,020.00 | +$388.45 (39%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+93.79 (+9%) |
| $5,000 | 7,042 | $5,100.00 | +$1,942.25 (39%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+468.93 (+9%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.710 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 79.1% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.114 · Max return 41%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.366 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $1,000
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.330 | −$287.35 | 871 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.182 | +$158.12 | + $712.65 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-0.539 | $-0.148 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-469.53 | $-129.24 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$158.12 (kept credit) | $-129.24 |
| ≥ $81,000 | +$870.76 (Yes wins) | −$712.65 (max loss) + $158.12 credit | $-129.24 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.710 | −$749.86 | 1,056 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.237 | −$250.14 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.081 | $+0.053 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+85.32 | $+56.14 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| BTC at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $80,000 | +$1,056.14 | $0 (worthless) | $+56.14 |
| ≥ $81,000 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,056.14 (max) | $+56.14 |
| ($80,000, $81,000) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-06 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-06 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.