ETH above $2,300
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? 13:18:47 UTC · ↻ refresh · poly ↗⚠ Modest directional bet: BUY Polymarket No
Deribit P(No) ≈ 43.8% vs Polymarket 36.0%. EV ≈ +$0.22 per $1.
Directional bet — BUY Polymarket No (no hedge, accept 100% downside)
Pure directional play. You bet that Deribit's RN-prob is closer to truth than Polymarket's price. Max upside if No resolves true, max loss if No resolves false. EV is computed using Deribit's RN-prob — caveat that RN-prob includes risk premium and may differ from real-world probability by 5-15%.
| Stake | Shares | Net cost (incl 2% fee) | If right | If wrong | EV (Deribit RN) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 278 | $102.00 | +$175.78 (176%) | -$102.00 (-100%) | $+19.66 (+20%) |
| $500 | 1,389 | $510.00 | +$878.89 (176%) | -$510.00 (-100%) | $+98.28 (+20%) |
| $1,000 | 2,778 | $1,020.00 | +$1,757.78 (176%) | -$1,020.00 (-100%) | $+196.56 (+20%) |
| $5,000 | 13,889 | $5,100.00 | +$8,788.89 (176%) | -$5,100.00 (-100%) | $+982.79 (+20%) |
Polymarket No — best ask $0.360 · Deribit implied P(No) ≈ 43.8% · EV per $1 staked = +$0.217 · Max return 178%. Other side (Yes): EV $-0.173 per $1.
Polymarket book (live)
Deribit hedge (live) bull call spread · width $50
A: Long Polymarket Yes + Short Deribit synth Yes
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too cheap". Both legs zero each other if Yes wins; locked profit = Deribit short credit − Polymarket Yes cost.
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket Yes | $0.680 | −$583.58 | 858 shares |
| SELL Deribit synth Yes | $0.515 | +$441.78 | + $416.42 collateral |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| poly cost − deribit credit | $-1.242 | $-0.165 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $-1,065.92 | $-141.80 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket | Deribit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | $0 (Yes loses) | +$441.78 (kept credit) | $-141.80 |
| ≥ $2,350 | +$858.20 (Yes wins) | −$416.42 (max loss) + $441.78 credit | $-141.80 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | Linear interp; better than both ends thanks to spread tightness | ≥ both ends | |
B: Long Polymarket No + Long Deribit synth Yes — preferred
Bet "Polymarket Yes is too expensive". One leg always pays $1; locked profit = $1 − (Polymarket No cost + Deribit Yes cost).
| Leg | Per binary | Total at $1k | Outcome flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY Polymarket No | $0.360 | −$371.76 | 1,033 shares |
| BUY Deribit synth Yes | $0.608 | −$628.24 | spread debit |
| Edge / binary | mid | realistic |
|---|---|---|
| $1 − (poly_no + deribit_long) | $+0.078 | $+0.032 |
| Net P&L per $1k | $+80.51 | $+32.66 |
Expiry payoff at $1k
| ETH at expiry | Polymarket No | Deribit Yes | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2,300 | +$1,032.66 | $0 (worthless) | $+32.66 |
| ≥ $2,350 | $0 (No loses) | +$1,032.66 (max) | $+32.66 |
| ($2,300, $2,350) | No expires worthless, Deribit pays partial | ≤ ends (negative carry) | |
Why "delta neutral" is approximate. For TRUE delta-neutrality you need (i) same expiry on both venues (Polymarket 2026-05-07 ≠ Deribit 2026-05-07 — basis risk on the gap), and (ii) tight enough Deribit spreads that synthetic-Yes mid ≈ Polymarket Yes. Excludes Polymarket 2% taker fee (~$20/$1k), gas (~$0.50), Deribit margin haircut.